The Bombers crashed to a 10th straight loss against the Cats and have lost 6 of their last 7 by a margin or 41+ points. The Saints on the other hand have become the masters of winning close games. Despite being out of finals contention, they have won their last three – all by a single digit margin. The concern for the Saints is that they have covered the line in only 1 of their last 5 as the betting favourite and have a mediocre 30% success rate at the line in the last year when coming off a win. The Bombers have had great success in this spot having won 4 of the last 5 meetings as a home underdog but they will need to overcome a poor recent run of 5 consecutive failures at the line. The Bombers have been the worst first quarter team in the AFL this season and have led at the first break in only 4 of 20 games played. Look for the Saints to get the jump on them from the opening bounce.
Best Bet: 1st Quarter Saints -6.5, Bombers +25.5 (match) ($4.62)
A few weeks ago the Lions were contending for the minor premiership but losses in 2 of their last 3 have seen them fall out of the top 4. They trailed at every interval in a narrow loss to the Swans but there is a positive as they have lost back-to-back games only once this season. The Under has held on in 5 of their previous 7 following a loss and in their last two against the Dockers at this ground. The home side are on a roll and are looking to extend their win streak to 6 games. They have won 8 of their last 10 as a home favourite and have claimed the points in 11 of their previous 14 after a win. The Dockers rank in the top five in performance for the 1st, 3rd and 4th quarters but are down in 14th for the second term. If that trend continues this could turn into a seesawing affair.
Best Bet: Wire to Wire – Any other result, 2nd Quarter Lions -0.5 ($3.32)
The Giants improved to 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss with a win over the Kangaroos and have held onto a finals spot as a result. That could change with a loss here as a run of three wins on the trot and a game in hand has the Suns in pole position for a top 4 finish. The Suns have leaned on their defence in the last month by holding their last 5 opponents to an average of 66.2ppg but that could change as the Over has hit in each of their last 4 day games. The winning team has tallied 100+ points in each of the last 8 games involving the Giants and in 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series. The Giants have posted an impressive 7-1 line record in their last 8 when facing teams above them on the ladder but may be forced to come from behind as the Suns have led at quarter time in 7 of their last 8 games.
Best Bet: 1st Quarter Winner – Suns, Over 175.5 points ($2.87)
Wins are something that neither fan base have seen much of in the second half of the season. The Blues have lost 7 of their last 8 including three in a row while the Power bring a four-game losing streak into the contest. Somehow the Blues have covered the line in their last 4 but have a 25% success rate at the line as the betting favourite in the last year. The Under continues to be the best play and has held on in 10 of the Blues last 12 home games. Similarly, the Under has a 67% success rate in Power away games in the last 12 months and part of that is their inability to score late in games. They have outscored their opposition only three times in the final term this season which suggests the Blues will be the better of the two in the closing stages.
Best Bet: Under 172.5 points, 4th Quarter Winner – Blues ($2.83)
With 7 wins in their last 9 the Hawks are building nicely. They dismantled the Pies last week and will fancy their chances against a Demons side that has managed just the two wins from its last 10 games. The Demons took a 10-point lead into the final term against the Bulldogs last week but failed to convert. They have been slow starters throughout the year and have won the opening term just 7 times. That trend is likely to continue as the Hawks have been the first to 5 goals in each of their last 9 games. The Hawks have a phenomenal home record of 17-1 in their last 18 and you can expect them to be on their game defensively again here. The Under has held on in each of the Hawks last 8 games at the MCG and is also 4-0 in their last 4 battles against the Demons.
Best Bet: Demons +22.5/Under 165.5 ($3.25)
The Crows win over the Eagles was anything but pretty, but it meant they were able to hold onto top spot. The Pies on the other hand have lost 4 of their last 5 and if their recent form continues, they will be playing an elimination game in week one of the finals. Despite their recent form, history suggests that they could cause an upset here. They have won 10 in a row against the Crows and have been victorious in 5 of the last 6 meetings as an away underdog. The visitors have failed at the line in their last 5 leading into this with scoring being their biggest hurdle. They have averaged 69ppg during that stretch which has contributed to a 5-0 Under record along the way. The Crows will not get a better chance to end their long-term drought against the Pies.
Best Bet: Crows -16.5/Under 164.5 points ($3.75)
The Tigers have averaged an embarrassing 44ppg in their last three (all losses) but it hasn’t stopped them from being installed as favourites against a Kangaroos outfit that has lost 7 in a row. This is the ideal game for the Tigers attack to break the shackles as the Kangaroos have conceded 121.1ppg during their current losing streak. The Over has hit in 5 of the 7 games but that goes against the recent trend in this series. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings and 6-2 in the last 8 when the Roos have been listed as the home team. The Under has a 72% success rate in Tigers’ matches following a loss in the last year but games at Ninja Stadium have rarely been close with an average winning margin of 41.1 points from 2020 onwards. The value is in taking the Tigers for a huge win in a very high scoring game.
Best Bet: Tigers by 40+, Over 196.5 points ($59.35)
A 44-point win over the Bombers may look dominant on paper but the Cats were well below their best. Their 4-game win streak goes on the line in the harbour city where the Swans are out to play the role of spoiler despite being out of finals contention. They toppled the Lions in a nail-biter at The Gabba last week with Heeney slotting five goals. The Swans have won only 5 of the last 18 meetings as the underdog but have notably covered the line in five straight as a home outsider. The Over has hit in 69% of Cats games following a win in the last year and that lines up nicely with the 7-2 Over record in the last 9 meetings in this series. The Swans kicked 5 of their 13 goals in the first term last week and it continues to be their highest scoring quarter by a clear margin. We could see the Cats playing catch-up.
Best Bet: Swans +17.5, 1st Quarter Over 41.5 points ($3.34)
The Bulldogs will be wondering what they must do to claim a spot in the top 8 and the answer is keep winning. They were forced to overcome a 4th quarter deficit to beat the Demons, their third consecutive win, but cannot afford a repeat of that complacency. The Eagles almost stunned the Crows last week on the back of converting 67% of their scoring shots into goals. Cannot see them replicating that here as the Bulldogs are set to pile on the points. They have scored 100+ points in 8 of their last 9 games and the Over has a 71% strike rate in Bulldogs games on the back of a win in the last year. A 5-1 Over record in their last 6 games at Marvel Stadium provides further support for a Bulldogs goal-scoring spree.
Best Bet: Bulldogs Over 124.5 points ($1.88)