We were on the money in Sabalenka’s quarter final match with Over 18.5 games saluting easily and Siegemund winning at set at $3.50. The world number one was broken 6 times in the match and won only 33% of 2nd serve points. It was the second consecutive match that she won fewer than 40% of 2nd serve points and she must now contend with her toughest opponent yet. Anisimova ran into some troubles of her own in the second set against Pavlyuchenkova but saved 5 set points in the tiebreaker to close the match out. It is not only the fact that she saved those set points but the manner which she did so. Anisimova has been going for her shots throughout the entire tournament – especially the backhand. She is one of the few players that has the necessary power required to take the game away from Sabalenka and it has shown in their previous clashes.
The H2H reads 5-3 in the favour of Anisimova and they have made a habit of running into one another in the last 18 months. This will be their fourth clash since the start of last year with Sabalenka enjoying a 2-1 edge over that period. Sabalenka was a 6-3 6-2 winner at the Australian Open last year but their battle at the French Open last month was very close with the top seed winning 7-5 6-3. On a faster surface where aggressive tennis is rewarded, I expect Anisimova to improve on her performance at the French Open. Have previously touched on her high number of double faults (6+ in each of her last four matches) but she has still managed to win at least 50% of 2nd serve points in her last three matches. IF she can replicate that here, Anisimova is a genuine chance of causing an upset.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.85)
Value: Set 1 Over 10.5 games ($3.50)
It has been almost 6 years since Belinda Bencic made her lone semi finals appearance at a Grand Slam (US Open 2019) but she is back in the final four on the back of a series of clutch performances. Of the last 5 sets she has played, four of them have been decided by a tiebreaker and she has won all of them! That includes a 7-6 7-6 win over Andreeva and it was the 5th consecutive match that she won at least 50% of 2nd serve points. Swiatek has also achieved this in all but one of her matches and has unlocked how to play on grass. This is her first venture beyond the quarter finals here and it comes on the back of stellar attacking tennis. She has won 77% of 1st serve points for the tournament and if she can make more than 65% of 1st serves, she will be hard to beat.
Swiatek holds a 3-1 advantage in the H2H but the most relevant clash is their most recent which happened on these courts two years ago. Swiatek who was fresh off a title-winning run at the French Open was able to squeeze out a narrow 6-7 7-6 6-3 win. Bencic was able to push her all the way despite serving 11 double faults. Most notably, there were a total of only three breaks of serve across the match in a total of 35 games played. Dating further back, there has been a total of 11 breaks of serve across the last 11 sets they have contested – a very low number for women’s tennis. Consequently, we will back the Overs with confidence and based on what we have seen from Bencic, it is likely that there will be at least one tiebreaker.
Tips
Best Bet: Over 21.5 games ($1.91)
Value: Set 1 Tie Break – YES ($6.00)