We will have a new Wimbledon champion following a fortnight of upsets in the women’s draw. The trend continued in the semi finals with Anisimova beating top seed and world number one Aryna Sabalenka to make her first ever major final. She will face a proven performer in Iga Swiatek but the performance of the 5-time major champion comes as a surprise as she had previously never made it past the quarter finals here. Swiatek has been in devastating form at the All-England club and has a huge edge with respect to experience at this level.
Having gone more than a year (French Open 2024) since winning a title on the WTA Tour, only the biggest believers in Swiatek could have seen this coming. What has transpired over the last fortnight is quite incredible as she has finally unlocked the game necessary to succeed on grass. She has put on an incredible display of ‘serve plus one’ tennis which has seen her win 78% of 1st serve points which has helped her to a 89% success rate holding serve. Swiatek has gone from strength to strength and has covered the games handicap in each of her last four matches. The scorelines in her matches have resembled those during her unbeatable runs at the French Open.
Let’s not take anything away from Anisimova as she just took down the world number one in a match where she won 60% of 2nd serve points. Her backhand has carried her through the tournament but her success against Sabalenka was not a surprise as she has now won 6 of their 9 clashes. It is a matchup that suits her style but I do not believe that will be the case here. Anisimova’s best shot is her backhand down the line but Swiatek is the best mover on the WTA Tour and nobody defends better out of that corner than her. Samsonova tried to hit through her on that side with limited success and it is the performance of Swiatek in return games which cannot be ignored. She has won 66% of 2nd serve return points across her last three matches and with Anisimova prone to double faults, Swiatek will be adding a 6th Grand Slam title to her trophy cabinet. Swiatek in a canter!
Tips
Best Bet: Swiatek -3.5 ($1.83)
Set Betting: Swiatek 2-0 ($2.05)
Value: Set 1 Score After 2 Games Swiatek 2-0 ($3.50)