The market suggests that we will witness a Swiatek/Andreeva semi final but the duo of Bencic and Samsonova may have something to say about that. Samsonova is yet to drop a set in the tournament and Bencic has made five career finals this surface (grass) on the WTA Tour.
From her first match on tour Andreeva was touted as a future major champion and she may get to the top of women’s tennis sooner than expected. She has improved with every match at the All-England Club and in a 6-2 6-3 win over Navarro, made a fellow top 10 player look second rate. One of the keys to Andreeva’s success in the tournament thus far has been fast starts. She has led 3-1 after 4 games in each of her last three matches and it has set the platform for her to post dominant wins. Andreeva won 71% of 2nd serve return points against Navarro and has shown superiority against all opponents in baseline exchanges. Bencic hits a flatter ball than most but that will suit Andreeva as she enjoys the ball coming onto the racquet. It has been more than 4 years since Bencic last made the quarters of a major and this is just her second Grand Slam appearance in the last two seasons. Have Andreeva winning comfortably.
Value Bet: Set 1 Score After 4 games – Andreeva 3-1 ($3.00)
Swiatek put on a clinic against Tuason and has made a clear adjustment in her point construction on grass. A four-time French Open champion she generally prefers to get into long exchanges from the baseline and wear her opponents down by using depth, consistency and superior athleticism. We have seen a change this week as she has opted to play first-strike tennis – taking any short return early and moving in behind it. It was the reason why she won 92% of 1st serve points in the win over Tauson but Samsonova has the one asset which can trouble Swiatek – power. To beat Swiatek you must play on the front foot and take time away from her. Samsonova has done this with great success in the last few weeks. She had 14 and 18 aces in consecutive wins over Osaka and Pegula respectively in Berlin. That form has continued at Wimbledon where she has won 58% of return games with 21 breaks of serve in only 8 sets played. If she can make 65% of 1st serves, the underdog should be able to hold serve regularly enough to turn this into a very close match. Like the Overs and believe Samsonova can cause an upset.
Value Bet: Samsonova WIN ($3.20)