We are not accustomed to seeing many Americans make it into the second week of the French Open but they have three men in action on Sunday night (Shelton, Tiafoe and Paul) with two of them installed as favourites.
On paper, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz should stroll into the final but he will have to apply himself mentally to avoid an unexpected loss.
The defending champion failed to adjust to the slower conditions of the night session. He was in cruise control after taking the first two sets 6-1 6-3 but dropped the third and was made to work for it in the fourth. He managed to win only 64% of 1st serve points and concerted only 7 of 21 break opportunities. These lapses of concentration against lower-ranked players are becoming a regular occurrence but I’m backing him to rectify that here. Alcaraz has won both prior meetings against Shelton and the big concern for the American is that in four sets played, he is yet to register a single break of serve against the Spaniard. Alcaraz in straight sets.
Musetti was broken 5 times by Navone in the 3rd Round and will need to improve on that performance for his battle against Rune. The Dane went the distance but despite playing five sets, was only broken four times in the match. He holds a 2-0 advantage over Musetti in this series but they are yet to meet on clay – the Italian’s best surface. Rune’s aggressive style has caused Musetti trouble in the past as it pins him behind the baseline – a place you do not want to be with a single handed backhand. This one could go either way but I fancy Rune with the start.
Aussie Alexei Popyrin has equalled his best ever result at a major and has made it through without dropping a set. We know that he is awfully hard to stop when at his best and this was evident in his title-winning run at the Montreal Masters last year. Paul leads he H2H 3-1 but all three of his victories over Popyrin have gone the distance. Popyrin came up clutch by winning both breakers against Borges as is winning close to 80% of 1st serve points for the tournament. The American is coming off back-to-back five set matches and has spent almost four hours more on court than Popyrin. Can see the pair trading breakers in a very tight 4-5 set contest. The Overs is a great bet!
Clay courts are supposed to nullify the serve but that has not been the case for Tiafoe and Altmaier. Both have employed the serve plus one tactic to great effect and it makes for a very close encounter here. Tiafoe is yet to drop a set while Altmaier has won close to 60% of 2nd serve points – a statistic that cannot be ignored. Their only meeting on clay came back in 2023 at the Rome Masters with Tiafoe coming from a set down to win. They combined for 15 aces in that match and 41 in 4 sets in their only other meeting at the Australin Open in the same year.