The Blues took control of the series with an 18-6 win in enemy territory but the scoreline was not a reflection of their dominance. They won the yardage battle by almost 330m, busted 30 more tackles than the Maroons and missed only 19 tackles compared to 49. It has forced Billy Slater to throw away the loyalty card in a desperate effort to force a deciding game in Sydney!
Team News
QLD Maroons: Changes are usually forced between Origin games but that is not the case for Queensland this time around as they have gone in search of points. Captain Daly Cherry-Evans has been dropped with Tom Dearden to start at halfback. Beau Fermor has paved the way for veteran Kurt Capewell with the duo of Carrigan and Nanai being relegated to the bench. Ezra Mam has been named 18th man meaning any late changes would see him take the field on Wednesday.
NSW Blues: We don’t often say this often, but the NSW hierarchy were on the money with a number of selections including that of Mitchell Moses ahead of Luai. In an interesting turn of events, the latter will get a chance to redeem himself as Moses was ruled out with injury. It means that Luai will partner former teammate Nathan Cleary in the halves. Mitchell Barnett suffered a season ending injury which has seen Max King named to start and Utoikamanu his replacement on the interchange. Koloamatangi can consider himself unlucky with the versatile Matt Burton getting the nod as 18th man.
Head To Head
NSW cut into the Maroons all-time lead in the H2H which now reads 70-61 (2 draws). A run of 14 series wins in the last 19 years has helped Queensland build a 24-16 lead with respect to series victories but the Blues can bridge the gap with a win in one of the next two games. They are well placed to do so in style with the final game of the series to be played in Sydney and don’t rule out a series whitewash – something we have not witnessed since 2010. Payne Haas claimed man of the match honours in Game 1, but we have not had forwards claim the honour in consecutive games since 2017.
Stats That Matter
Under total match points was an easy winner in the series opener but look for the script to be flipped here. There has been an average of 44.3 total match points in the last 7 Origin played outside of NSW and Queensland, but that number is even higher in this specific scenario. The last four Game 2’s played in a neutral state have produced 44+ total match points and an average of 50! The line may look big for an Origin game but there has been a distinct trend in games that NSW have won in recent years. Their last 8 wins have all come by a margin of 10+ points with five of those victorious by 20 points or more. In summary, when the Blues win, they are completely dominant. Zac Lomax has been an incredible threat on the wing for the Blues with 5 tries in just 4 Origin games played including the opening try in Game 1. Wingers were responsible for 4 of the 5 tries scored in the series opener and will feature prominently in what is likely a high scoring game.
Prediction
The Maroons did not win a single battle in Game 1 and the gap between the two sides is significantly larger than the 18-6 score line may suggest. The Maroons needed to address several key areas with their changes to have any chance of forcing a deciding game – yardage, long kicking and flair. Dearden and Capewell will not help them in any of those departments and Cleary’s superior kicking game will again provide the Blues with territorial advantage. This time around they will do a better job of capitalising on their opportunities, and we could see them completely blow out the Maroons!
Tips
Best Bet: Over 41.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: NSW 41 points or more ($8.75)
1st Try Scorer: Brian To’o ($7.50)
Anytime Try Scorers: Zac Lomax ($1.75), To’o ($1.85), Angus Crichton ($4.40), Liam Martin ($4.40)
Player of the Match: Nathan Cleary ($4.75), Dylan Edwards ($7.50)
Same Game Multi: NSW WIN, Over 49.5 Points, Lomax Anytime Try Scorer ($4.72)