Jack Crisp had a kick after the full time siren to beat Geelong, but his miss brought an end to their 6-game winning streak. The Dockers were never in the hunt in a 61-point loss to the Saints in a game where they lost every quarter. These two played out a rare draw (75-75) in their only clash last season but the Pies did win the three prior clashes and are 4-0 at the line in the last 4 meetings. The Pies have won 9 of the last 14 clashes (69%) when installed as the betting favourite and have also won their last 4 matches dating back to last season when coming off a loss. The Under is 4-0 in the Pies last 4 games leading into this one and 5-1 in their last 6 away to the Dockers.
The Saints ended a three game skid with a huge win over the Dockers while the Blues failed to win a single quarter and were held to 50 points in a loss away to the Crows. The Saints have won 9 of the last 12 meetings but they are facing off at the MCG for the first time since 2019. The previous 6 battles have all taken place at Marvel Stadium with victory being claimed by the ‘away’ team on the day. The Blues have won only 33% of games following a loss in the last year and have covered the line in only 3 of 12 attempts in those games. The Saints have been a profitable play in this spot having won 5 of their last 8 outright as a home underdog.
The Demons resurgence continued with a season high 35 disposals from Max Gawn and a 3-goal haul from Daniel Turner helping them to a third consecutive win. They are yet to beat a side currently in the top 8 this season and get a chance to change that here. The Hawks solidified a spot in the top on that of a second win by 50+ points in as many weeks, but their price looks skinny when you consider that they have not beaten the Demons since 2018. The Demons have covered the line in 5 of the last 7 clashes as the outsider with the Under holding on in each of the last three. Only 1 of their last 7 battles have produced 160+ total match points.
The Swans took an early lead in an emotionally charged derby against the Giants and were never headed. The Bombers led by 22 at quarter time against the Kangaroos but had to cling on for a narrow win – improving to 4-1 in their last 5. The Swans have dominated this series with wins in 5 of the last 6 meetings including each of the last three. The numbers suggest that the visitors can be trusted in this spot. They are 5-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 as an away favourite and have been successfully at the line in 71% of matches following a win in the last year.
A late surge from the Suns was not enough to get the chocolates against the Lions and it doesn’t get any easier for them this week when they host a Bulldogs side that has won its last three. The Bulldogs have averaged 123.7ppg during their win streak and have also posted a triple-figure score in 3 of their last 5 against the Suns. The Suns are 7-3 straight up and at the line in their last 10 following a loss with the Over hitting in 70% of those games. The Over has also hit in their last 5 matches against the Bulldogs and they are seeking a 6th consecutive success at the line as the home team in this series.
The Showdown’ rarely disappoints and with 28 wins a piece, there will be bonus bragging rights for the winning team. The Power were embarrassing in a 90-point loss to the Bulldogs while the Crows were back to their free-scoring best in a big win over the Blues. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with an average of 143.7 total match points in those games and this lines up with the Crows 3-0 Under record in their last 3 games leading into this. The Crows have a 67% success rate at the line following a win in the last 12 months and have won a league-leading 24 individual quarters this season. Interestingly, the Power have kicked the opening goal in all 8 games played so far this season.
The Eagles remain the only side without a win this season and have conceded 100+ points in 4 of their last 5. The Over has hit in 67% of their away games in the last year and they have won only 1 of their last 12 as an away underdog. These are the two lowest-scoring teams in the AFL with 65.9 and 64.8 points per game respectively. The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 games and has held on in 70% of their home games in the last year. The Eagles won the most recent clash in this series, but the Tigers have won the last 4 meetings at the MCG by an average of 24.5 points. The Eagles are yet to win a second half quarter this season (0-16) which suggests that the Tigers only need to be within striking distance at the main break to cover the start.
We may not witness a better game all season than the Cats win over the Magpies, but they will need to be just as good here as the Giants are desperate to end a 3-game losing streak. The last two meetings have been decided by a combined total of only 11 points with the Giants winning two nail biters. The Cats are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 home games but beware the Giants as they have covered the line in 8 of their last 10 as the underdog in this series. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 clashes between these two with both teams scoring fewer than 90 points in 5 of the last 7 encounters.
The Kangaroos have lost their last two games by a single-digit margin but they may have to wait another week to end their losing streak as the Lions only loss this season came against the second-placed Pies. The Kangaroos have failed to cover the line in their last 3 home games which spells danger against a Lions side that has won its last 7 away games and covered the line in 67% of road games in the last 12 months. The Over has hit in 11 of the Lions last 15 away games helped by their average team total of 118ppg in their first four away games this season. The Lions have won their last 3 against the Kangaroos by an average of 84.3 points.