With wins in each of the last 11 meetings in this series, it is no surprise to see the Bombers installed as firm favourites.
They were outplayed by the Magpies last week but the Over has hit in 8 of their last 11 following a loss which suggests they will find their feet in front of goal.
They will also be aided by a struggling Kangaroos defence which has allowed 114.4ppg so far this season.
The Over has hit in 7 of their last 8 matches as a result and the main beneficiary will be Bombers big man Peter Wright as he has kicked 3 or more goals in his last four matches under lights at this ground.
The Saints slide down the ladder continued last week after they conceded 110+ points for a third consecutive game – all losses.
In contrast, the Dockers are trending upwards with 4 wins in their last 5 putting them equal 5th on points but just outside the eight on percentages.
This has not been a good spot for the home side as they have lost their last 5 matches played on a Friday night.
\The Over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games and although the Dockers are renowned for low scoring contests, the Over has hit in 9 of their last 12 away games.
Dockers in a high scoring contest.
The Power’s season is back on track courtesy of three consecutive wins and they could leapfrog the Bulldogs on the ladder who have won their last two.
The Power have been efficient in front of goal during their streak (45.33) and will need to be on song as the winning team across the Bulldogs last 4 matches has scored 97 points or more.
The Over is 4-0 in that stretch, but the Power could force a change to that.
The Under has held on in 67% of Power matches following a win in the last year and 75% of their away games over the same period.
A run of three wins and an average of 137ppg scored to open the season had people talking up the Crows at title contenders.
Any notion of that has quickly been squashed as they have won only 1 of their last 4.
The Blues have taken their place by winning their last three capped off by a 3-goal win over the Cats last week.
The Crows are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 home games against the Blues but there is statistical support for the visitors.
The underdog has covered the line in 7 of the last 8 meetings and the Blues are likely to get a fast start as they have led at half time in each of their last 7 games leading into this one.
A 6-game win streak has the Magpies sitting atop the ladder and it has been a case of no place like home as they have now won their last 8 games played at the MCG.
They Pies have covered the line in their last 7 home games and in 9 of their last 14 (64%) when coming off a win.
The Cats will not be intimidated as they have won 5 of their last 7 against the Pies.
The Under is 4-1 in the Cats last 5 matches and has also held on in 7 of their last 9 as the away team in this matchup.
These are two of the better defensive sides in the competition so you want to be on the Unders.
The Eagles went close to grabbing their first win of the season a fortnight ago against the Bombers but last week were never in it in a 50-point loss to the Hawks.
They have lost their last 4 home games and have taken the points on offer in only 1 of their last 5 against the Demons.
The Dees have won their last two, but we are unlikely to witness a goal fest here as the Under has held on in 6 of their last 8 after a win.
The Under is also 5-0 in their last 5 night matches which makes it a clear top pick.
It has been raining all week in the harbour city so it will likely be a case of who handles the conditions best.
Both teams will be desperate to get back in the winner’s circle but despite having won the last 4 meetings, the Swans cannot be trusted in this spot.
They have lost their last 4 home games and have been victorious in only 1 of their last 7 as a home underdog.
Like the Giants/Unders double here and Lachie Whitfield to register 30+ disposals for a 7th time in his last 8 games
With only the Kangaroos and Eagles below them on the ladder, it has been a disappointing start to the season for the Tigers.
The Hawks kicked 18 goals in a 50-point win over the Eagles last week and are dangerous when they get on a roll.
They have won 13 of their last 18 following a win and have been successful at the line in 78% of those games.
They did the double over the Tigers last season with both victories coming by a 40+ margin.
The Over is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 games at the MCG and have feasted on the lesser teams with seven consecutive wins by a 40+ margin against teams in the bottom four of the standings.
It was a similar scenario for both teams last week. Each were coming off a loss and responded with big wins to solidify their spots in the top 4.
Historically, this matchup has evidently been a case of the big brother (Lions) feasting on the little brother.
The Lions have won 6 straight and 10 of their last 11 as a home favourite against the Suns.
The last 4 battles have fallen short of the total and that trend should continue as there has been an average of only 152.7 total match points in matches played at The Gabba this season.
Back the Lions with confidence.