It was a similar story for both teams in Round 10 as they bounced back after a loss with huge wins. The Cats won by 76 points away to the Power while the Bulldogs thumped the Bombers by 91 points. They split the two meetings last season, but it is the Cats that have won 6 of the last 8 clashes. The Cats have won 14 of the last 18 encounters as the betting fav (9-1 at home) and this is accompanied by a 67% win rate at home in the last 12 months. These are 2 of the best 3 attacking teams in the competition this season with the Bulldogs averaging 103.8ppg and the Cats not far behind with 97.1ppg. The Bulldogs have posted 96+ points in 6 straight games and the Cats have the ability to go toe-to-toe with them. Overs .
Up until two years ago the Tigers owned this matchup. They had won 13 in a row but the Bombers have since bounced back by winning the last two. The betting favourite has an incredible record in this series having won 20 of the last 24 battles which includes the Bombers winning 4 of the last 5 as a home fav. A loss to the Kangaroos last week means that the Tigers have lost their last 4 following a win and their attack will need to improve. The Under is 6-0 in their last 6 games and they have averaged a mere 64.8ppg during that stretch. The Under is also 3-0 in the Bombers last 3 with no more than 160 total match points in 6 of the last 8 between these two teams. The Tigers have led at the first break in only 2 of 10 games played this season so look for the Bombers to grab an early lead.
Both teams came up short last week and fell to 0-2 in their last 2 following a win. Things could get worse for the Blues as they have covered the line in only 4 of their last 13 on the back of a loss with the Under holding on in 85% of those games. Over the same period the Giants have a 64% success rate at the line following a loss and have won 4 of the last 7 clashes against the Blues at Marvel Stadium. Despite both teams sitting outside of the top 8, they rank first and second respectively in 1st quarter performance. It is the highest scoring quarter for both teams with the Blues scoring 31% of their points in the first term and the Giants not far off with 28% of points. Going wide here with the 1st quarter Overs.
Accuracy was not enough to earn the Hawks the points last week as they went down 104-96 despite kicking 15.6. The news was even worse for the Lions who have been knocked off top spot following a loss to the Demons. The hawks are 5-0 both straight up and at the line in the last 5 meetings and for the 7th consecutive meeting will have the benefit of home ground advantage. The Hawks have won 4 of their last 6 following a loss with a 67% success rate at the line in those games. They also have been phenomenal in this spot with wins in each of their last 12 home games which is accompanied by a 7-1 line record in their last 8 as a home favourite. The Lions have won their last 4 as a road underdog but the Hawks dominance at home cannot be overlooked.
Steady improvement from the Kangaroos in recent weeks was rewarded with a narrow win over the Tigers. The level of improvement will be put under the microscope this week as they take on the competition front runners. The Magpies are coming off a narrow 10-point win over the Crows – their 5th wire to wire win in their last 6 games. The H2H reads 5-0 in the Pies favour across the last 5 meetings but it is the Kangaroos that have covered the line in the last four. The Kangaroos have kept it close by keeping the scoreboard ticking. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes with an average of 188 total match points in those games.
The Dockers avoided a third consecutive loss by beating the Giants, but the Power failed to avoid a trio of defeats after being comprehensively beaten by the Cats. The Power have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series including the last 3 and the last 2 at Optus Stadium. The Over has hit in 8 of the Dockers’ last 10 following a win but this differs to the bulk of the other statistics relating to the total. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings and the Powers’ last 3 leading into this. It has also held on in 10 of their last 12 away games with an average of 155.3 total match points in their last 3 road fixtures. Closing out games has been a huge issue for the Power, and they are yet to outscore an opposing team in the 4th quarter this season. Another poor finish will allow the Dockers to cover the line.
It took 11 rounds but the Eagles finally got their first win of the season. They now back on the road where they have lost their last 6 to face a Crows outfit that has had the better of them for an extended period. The Crows went neck and neck with the Magpies last week but failed to find the killer blow in a 10-point loss. History suggests they will bounce back here as they have won their last 5 against the Eagles which includes covering the line in the last 4 clashes. Extending that streak will not be easy as the Under is 5-0 in their last 5 games with an average of 143.4 total match points across those games. Another low scoring contest will make it difficult to cover a big start.
The Demons improved to 4-1 in their last 5 with an impressive away win over the Lions but it was not enough to earn them the favourite tag for this one. The Swans opened sligh favourites following a win over the Blues and it could be significant. They have won 5 of the last 6 as an away favourite in this series and have posted a 4-2 record both straight up and at the line as a road favourite in the last year. The Demons have 2 wins in their last 8 attempts as home underdog, but the best play is on the total. The Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between them and has held on in 7 of the last 9 hosted by the Demons.
Consecutive wins over top 8 teams (Hawks and Bulldogs) have elevated the Suns into the top 4 and they are firming in the premiership market as a result. In contrast, the Saints have lost their last two and 5 of their last 6 which has caused them to slide down the ladder. The Saints have won the last 5 at home to the Suns but the Queenslanders have posted a 4-2 record both straight up and at the line in the last 6 as the betting favourite in this matchup. The Eagles are the only side to have won fewer individual quarters than the Saints and the home team are likely to be playing catch up as the Suns have scored the opening goal in 7 of their 9 games played.