This is not the Novak Djokovic we are used to seeing. The 10-time Australian Open champion has dropped a set in each of his two matches and has leaned on 37 aces to get him out of trouble. He now faces a tougher assignment than his first two as Machac beat him last time they met. It was on clay in Geneva last year with Machac winning the deciding set 6-1. This surface should offer him more free points and we should remember that he has claimed at least one set in his two previous battles with Djokovic. This will be an even tougher battle for Novak as Machac has recent wins over Hurkacz, Tommy Paul, Dimitrov and Alcaraz. Expecting him to win more than one set here.
Value: Machac To Win More Than One Set – YES ($2.45)
Borges continued his good early season form with an upset win over Australia’s Jordan Thompson but he now runs into a freight train called Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard has been on fire in the opening week and has lost no more than a single game in 4 of the 6 sets he has won. In his first two matches, Borges was afforded the opportunity to control baseline exchanges and did so with great success. Against Alcaraz he will find himself outside his comfort zone – chasing down ball after ball and being forced to defend out of the corners. That is not his strength and as we saw in their one and only meetings, Alcaraz picked him apart 6-3 6-1. Expecting at least two sets to be blowouts.
With Alcaraz and Djokovic drawing the bulk of the media attention in this half of the draw, Zverev has somehow been the forgotten man. It has suited him well as he is yet to drop serve, let alone lose a set. Fearnley handled the big serve of Nick Kyrgios in his opening match but the Aussie hadn’t played a Grand Slam match for the better part of two years so we cannot compare him with what the Brit is about to face. Zverev is playing outstanding first-strike tennis and is winning 63% of 2nd serve points for the tournament. Based on those numbers, he is unbreakable and I fancy him to post another straight sets win.
Both men covered the games handicap with success for us in their previous matches but we can only back one of them today. Carballes Baena may play his best tennis on clay but has made a slight adjustment to his positioning in the early stages of this season and it is working wonders. Paul is not the biggest hitter, nor does he possess a booming serve that will generate a lot of free points for him. That means that most points will be long baseline rallies – right in the wheelhouse of Carballes Baena. The Spaniard beat Paul at the US Open in 2021 and is way over the odds to repeat that effort here. Taking him with the games handicap start and the outright win.
Value: Carballes Baena WIN ($5.75)
Djokovic v Machac: Over 35.5 games ($1.80)
Fearnley v Zverev: Sets Zverev 3-0 ($1.73)
Carballes Baena v Paul: Carballes Baena +7.5 ($1.85)
Lehecka v Bonzi: Lehecka -1.5 Sets ($1.62)
Borges v Alcaraz: Alcaraz -8.5 ($2.10)
Umbert v Fils: Over 39.5 games ($1.80)
Draper v Vukic: Vukic +5.5 ($2.10)
Mensik v Davidovicj-Fokina: Mensik WIN ($1.48)