History
There have been 37 Test matches between New Zealand and Argentina since they first met in 1985. The All Blacks have dominated those meetings, having won 34 of which, alongside one draw in their second-ever meeting and two defeats. Those two defeats, however, have come relatively recently, first in 2020 in Sydney and then in 2022 when Los Pumas caused a massive upset by winning in Christchurch. New Zealand have won three on the bounce since, by an average of 39 points.
Form
New Zealand have gone three-from-three in 2024. The Scott Robertson era started with a tough assignment, welcoming England for a two-game tour, and the All Blacks were somewhat fortunate to finish the series as 2-0 winners, but all they will care about will be the final results. They followed those two games up with a rare excursion to the USA to play a one-off game against Fiji. A second-string All Blacks team cruised to victory in that game, winning 47-5.
Argentina have also played just three games in 2024, having won two of which. Hosting France for a two-game series, Los Pumas would have been expecting to win both games, with Les Bleus sending an understrength team to South America. However, the visitors won the opening game convincingly, 28-13, before the Argentinians fought back for a 33-25 victory in the second Test. From there, Los Pumas romped to a 79-5 demolition of Uruguay the following week.
Teams
New Zealand: 1 Ethan De Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 TJ Perenara, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Mark Tele’a, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Beauden Barrett. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Will Jordan.
Argentina: 1 Thomas Gallo, 2 Ignacio Ruiz, 3 Eduardo Bello, 4 Franco Molina, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 6 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 8 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 10 Santiago Carreras, 11 Mateo Carreras, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 13 Lucio Cinti, 14 Matias Moroni, 15 Juan Cruz Mallía. Reserves: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Joel Sclavi, 19 Tomás Lavanini, 20 Ephraim Elias, 21 Joaquín Oviedo, 22 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 23 Tomas Albornoz.
Stats That Matter
- New Zealand are 1-3 ATS in their last four games
- Argentina have covered three of their last four games
- New Zealand have covered the spread in five of their last seven games against Argentina
- New Zealand have won 16 of 17 games against Argentina at home, by an average scoreline of 46-14
- The under is 7-2 in the last nine games between these teams
The Verdict
A mismatch is upon us on Saturday evening. The All Blacks have been solid so far under Scott Robertson and he will be wanting to make a statement in his first game leading New Zealand in the Rugby Championship. While there are a couple of big names out of the team through injury, including captain Scott Barrett and his locking partner Patrick Tuipulotu, this is still a strong All Blacks team and they will be out to prove that they are exactly that on Saturday. Argentina didn’t provide much to be excited by in their games against France, and with a forward pack that somehow seems to be going backwards since their early 2020s highs. The All Blacks will dominate them around the park and this will end in a blowout.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 24
Tips
Best: New Zealand -17.5 ($1.87)
Value: New Zealand 21-30 ($3.70)
History
There is a long and storied history between Australia and South Africa in international rugby. Saturday afternoon will mark the 94th meeting between the two nations, and it’s the Springboks who have enjoyed more of the success. With 50 wins to their name, along with 40 defeats and three draws, South Africa have narrowly had the better of this fixture over the past 91 years, but things have been very even in recent meetings. It’s three wins apiece across the last six encounters, although the Australians have won four of their last five at home against the ‘Boks.
Form
Joe Schmidt’s reign as head coach of Australia has gotten off to the dream start. It has been a soft schedule in terms of quality of opposition, but all they could ask for was three wins from three games, and that is what played out. A nine-point win in the first Test of Wales’ tour of Australia was followed by an eight-point victory to seal a 2-0 series win. It was far from convincing from the Wallabies, with sloppy play plaguing their performances, but they were still head and shoulders above the Welsh and it showed. They followed those two performances with a second-string team recording a relatively comfortable 40-29 victory over Georgia.
South Africa played out a thrilling 1-1 series draw against Ireland in July. As the world #1 and world #2 went head-to-head, rugby fans were treated to some elite action and by the end of the series, it became clear that there was virtually nothing separating the two sides. South Africa won the first Test 27-20 before the Irish responded with a 25-24 triumph. The hosts’ kicking game and forwards were their standout strengths from those games, and they easily took care of Portugal the week after, winning 64-21.
Teams
Australia: 1 Isaac Kailea, 2 Matt Faessler, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (c), 4 Nick Frost, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 6 Rob Valetini, 7 Carlo Tizzano, 8 Harry Wilson, 9 Jake Gordon, 10 Noah Lolesio, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 12 Hunter Paisami, 13 Len Ikitau, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 15 Tom Wright. Reserves: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 James Slipper, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tom Lynagh, 23 Dylan Pietsch.
South Africa: 1 Ox Nche, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 3 Frans Malherbe, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 RG Snyman, 6 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Elrigh Louw, 9 Cobus Reinach, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 12 Damian de Allende, 13 Jesse Kriel, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 15 Willie le Roux. Reserves: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Handré Pollard.
Stats That Matter
- Australia have won four of their last five home games against South Africa
- Australia have failed to cover the spread in their last eight games
- South Africa have covered three of their last four games away from home
- South Africa have won their last two games against Australia by an average of 23.5 points
- The last eight games between these teams have seen an average of just 44.8 points per game
The Verdict
The Wallabies have a new lease on life under Joe Schmidt, but that is not to say that they are a good team. At least compared with the Springboks. Three wins under Schmidt has brought confidence around the Wallabies among the public and the media, but there is no real grounds for this, with their wins coming against two weak teams — Wales and Georgia — and the Aussies aren’t going to know what’s hit them against this great South African team. The ‘Boks are primed, coming off a testing series against Ireland, and with Rassie Erasmus having named a full-strength team, this game will be a mismatch. The Wallabies have a good record in Brisbane, and that may help them keep things close in the opening 40 minutes, but the forward play and the tactical nous of the visitors will see them win with ease by the end of the 80 minutes.
The Prediction
South Africa by 17
Tips
Best: South Africa -9.5 ($1.90)
Value: South Africa 11-20 ($3.60)