Paris Day 14 | Best Bets

Paris Day 14 | Best Bets

The penultimate day of the action in Paris has arrived, and Team New Zealand will be hoping that the medals continue to flow in. Yet another gold to Lisa Carrington and her K-2 500m partner Alicia Hoskin on Friday night brought Aotearoa’s tally up to six golds, before Maddi Wesche continued New Zealand’s excellent record in women’s shot put, spectacularly winning silver with a 19.86m personal best.

The medal chances continue in Day 15, with Carrington and Aimee Fisher set to duel in the K-1 500m final, Lydia Ko entering the final round of the women’s golf tied for the lead, Hamish Kerr contending in the high jump final, the men’s madison track cycling final and David Liti in the +102kg weightlifting final, among a heap of other exciting action.

Men’s 800m Final
To Win Gold — Djamel Sejati ($1.52)

The men’s 800m has garnered plenty of attention in the weeks leading into Paris, and now the final has arrived. Djamel Sedjati of Algeria and Emmanuel Wanyonyi of Kenya are the two men who were making headlines, with Sedjati running a rapid 1:41.56 in his Paris Diamond League win, before backing it up with a 1:41.46 — the fastest time recorded this year — at the Monaco Diamond League meeting.

The Kenyan was just 0.02 seconds back of Sedjati in the Paris Diamond League race, clocking the third-fastest time of the year in the process, and just three weeks earlier, ran the fifth-quickest time at 1:41.70, making them clearly the top two contenders.

Local hope Gabriel Tual was another standout in that Diamond League event, running third in a time of 1:41.61 to own the fourth-quickest run of 2024, but he’s not been able to emerge on top in any of the year’s big races.

Reigning World Champion Marco Arop started the year with a bang, winning his first four races, and although he hasn’t been at his absolute best of late, if he gets a clear run, he could figure.

All of the major players did their jobs in qualifying with no real concerns, and that means that this gold medal is Sedjati’s to lose. He’s been the fastest man in the world this year over this distance, has a proven ability to win major races and will finish strongly.

Men’s High Jump Final
To Win Gold — Mutaz Barshim ($3.50)

Sunday, 5:00am

One of the best moments of Tokyo came in the men’s high jump final, as rivals Gianmarco Tamberi (Italy) and Mutaz Barshim (Qatar) agreed to share the gold medal, triggering boisterous celebrations.

Both are back in Paris to defend their crown, but some additional contenders have come to the fore since the 2021 event and headlining them is New Zealand’s own Hamish Kerr. The Kiwi cleared 2.36m to win the World Indoor Championships in March — that jump remains the second-best of anyone in 2024 — and he carried his good form through to April (2.31m) and July (2.33m) to indicate that he is going to be one of the leading contenders on Sunday morning.

The top-recorded clearance of 2024 belongs to Tamberi, who cleared 2.37m to win the Italy trials in June. However, he suffered a minor injury just one month ago and has had to take some time off. He made it back to record 2.24m in qualifying, with Barshim clearing 2.27m. The Qatari has intentionally limited his participation in 2024, but a 2.31m in his last meeting prior to Paris indicates that he is in good shape.

Woo Sanghyeok of South Korea is another contender. He won the 2022 World Indoor Championships and has cleared 2.33m this season. Shelby McEwan of the USA is the only other man in Sunday’s field to have recorded a 2.30m+ clearance, indicating that it is a shallow pool of realistic gold medal contenders.

Kerr finds himself as the betting favourite, but he’s yet to prove himself on the biggest of stages. At $3.50, the Qatari defending champion is a very appealing price to go back-to-back.

Women’s 1500m Final
To Win Gold — Faith Kipyegon ($1.33)

Sunday, 6:15am

A star-studded field is set to take part in the women’s 1500m final on Sunday morning, but all eyes will be on Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon. The 30-year-old has the opportunity to be the first woman ever to win three titles in the same individual track event at this competition, and who would doubt her, after recording a personal best and world record 3:49.04 just one month ago?

Caught up in controversy in the 5000m final, the Kenyan won her appeal to keep her silver medal in that race, but she won’t settle for anything less than gold in this encounter. She’s unbeaten over this distance in the last three years and her 3:49.04 was over one second faster than the second-best time of 2024 — 3:50.30 from Ethiopia’s Gudaf Tsegay — highlighting that Kipyegon will take some beating in this race.

Tsegay may well be her closest contender in this race, alongside Ethiopia’s Diribe Welteji. A 3:50.30 at the Xiamen Diamond League in April was impressive from Tsegay, winning in a strong field, while the 22-year-old has steadily been improving. Her 3:53.75 in May marked her PB and an improvement on that could see her at the head of the field down the final straight.

But there is nobody who looks all that close to Kipyegon. On form, the Kenyan is the overwhelming favourite to pull off the unprecedented three-peat and even at $1.33, she’s the bet.

Men’s Gold Medal Game
USA -16.5 ($1.88)

Sunday, 7:30am

France will take on the USA in the battle for the gold medal in Paris, after the two teams prevailed in hard-fought semifinals on Friday morning. First-up it was the French, who entered their game against Germany as underdogs and it looked like those predictions were correct after one quarter of play. The Germans were getting anything they wanted on the offensive end, leading 25-18 after one, but the host nation controlled the game from there to emerge as 73-69 victors. It was not a pretty game, with two strong defences going head-to-head, but Guerschon Yabusele and Isaia Cordinier again came up clutch for the hosts, combining for 33 points to carry them over the line offensively. Victor Wembanyama also left his mark, with 11/7/4 and three blocks to keep a lid on Franz Wagner and force Dennis Scheoder into an inefficient evening. Now 4-1 in Paris, France are just one win away from golden glory, but a massive obstacle is in front of them.

The USA also had to mount a comeback to earn their semifinal win, overcoming a 13-point fourth quarter deficit to beat Serbia 95-91. It was very nearly the end of the USA’s campaign, as they struggled to contain the varied Serbian offence, led by Nikola Jokić and Bogdan Bogdanović, but clutch play from Steph Curry, LeBron James, Joel Embiid and Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter completed the USA comeback to maintain their unbeaten run and earn them a spot in the gold medal game. The matchup here is fascinating, with a team full of NBA stars taking on a team that has only been giving consistent minutes to two NBA players — Victor Wembanyama and Nicolas Batum. Rudy Gobert has been pushed to the bottom of the rotation and that has opened up their offence somewhat, but they are simply outmatched in this clash. The versatility of the USA on both ends of the floor will cause France all sorts of issues and Les Bleus will have no answers for the speed and shooting of the defending champions. Home court advantage goes the way of the French but that won’t help them get close.

Women’s Gold Medal Game
Both Teams To Score — No ($1.67) | Value: Correct Score — USA 1-0 ($5.50)

Sunday, 3:00am

The USA will seek its fifth gold medal in women’s football on Sunday morning when the lock horns with Brazil. The South Americans have won two silver medals in this event, first in 2004 and then in 2008, but will be eager for their first taste of gold to close out their time in Paris. It hasn’t been a smooth ride for the Brazilians so far, finishing group play with a 1-2 record, only qualifying for the quarterfinals as the second-best third-ranked team. However, since those two defeats to close out group play, they have risen to the occasion to get all the way to the gold medal match. In the quarterfinal, they upset the host nation, with Gabi Portilho’s 82nd minute goal giving Brazil a 1-0 win, before an impressive performance from Spain in the semifinal. After losing to the Spaniards 0-2 in group play, the odds were stacked against the South Americans, but they again showed great resilience, taking a 2-0 lead into the sheds before sealing a 4-2 win. Goalkeeper Lorena has been massive so far in the knockout games and she will be called upon again to try and keep out an aggressive USA team.

The Americans have gone through the tournament unbeaten so far, but that statement makes their performances sound better than reality. After sweeping their group with three wins from three games, the USA were matched up with Japan in the quarterfinals. Tied at 0-0 after 90 minutes, the Americans needed an extra time winner from Trinity Rodman to progress. The same story played out in the semifinals, finishing normal time tied up 0-0. This time it was Sophia Smith who delivered the extra time goods, progressing the Americans to the gold medal match, and they are going to take some beating. They have conceded just two goals across five games and while the Brazilians will throw a lot at them, the Americans will prove to be too organised and too tough to crack.

Kiwis in Action

Women’s Golf

Lydia Ko

Stroke Play Round 4

Saturday, 7:00pm

 

Women’s Canoe/Kayak Sprint

Aimee Fisher | Lisa Carrington

K-1 500m Semifinal

From Saturday, 8:30pm

 

K-1 500m Final*

Saturday, 11:00pm

 

Women’s Track Cycling

Ellesse Andrews | Shaane Fulton

Sprint 1/8 Finals

From Sunday, 3:00am

 

Sprint 1/8 Finals Repechage*

Sunday, 3:50am

 

Sprint Quarterfinal*

Sunday, 5:07am

 

Men’s Track Cycling

Sam Dakin

Keirin First Round

Sunday, 3:19am

 

Keirin Repechage*

Sunday, 5:21am

 

Campbell Stewart & Aaron Gate

Madison Final

Sunday, 3:59am

 

Men’s Athletics

Hamish Kerr

High Jump Final

Sunday, 5:10am

 

Women’s Artistic Swimming

Nina Brown & Eva Morris

Duet Free Routine

Sunday, 5:30am

 

Men’s Weightlifting

David Liti

+102kg Final

Sunday, 6:30am