Paris Day 12 | Best Bets

Paris Day 12 | Best Bets

Day 12 shapes up to be a whopper for Kiwi athletes and fans alike.

Lisa Carrington begins her pursuit for another K-1 500m gold medal, with the heats beginning tonight, before our attention shifts to the medal contenders on Thursday morning.

The women’s team pursuit recorded the fastest qualifying time and look to be genuine gold medal contenders, while Thomas Saunders competes in the one-person dinghy gold medal race and Eliza McCartney, Imogen Ayris and Olivia McTaggart all will contend for gold in the women’s pole vault final.

All that and much more is heading your way in a bumper Day 12.

Men’s Athletics: 400m Final
To Win Gold — Quincy Hall ($2.50)

Thursday, 7:20am
The start list is set for the men’s 400m final, and it’s set to be a thrilling event. The 2023 world champion Antonio Watson had a sudden drop in form, failing to qualify for the Jamaican team for Paris, opening this field up, but there are a few clear-cut gold medal contenders on top of the list.

Great Britain’s Matthew Hudson-Smith was the man gaining the most hype heading into Paris on the back of his London Diamond League win, in which he ran a season-leading 43.74 seconds. That moved American Quincy Hall down to second place on that leaderboard, having recorded a time of 43.80 just one week earlier, but new contenders have emerged in qualifying.

2012 gold medallist Kirani James stamped his mark with a 43.78, indicating that he will remain in the medal hunt. In that same qualifying race, Zambia’s Muzala Samukonga ran 43.81 to set a personal best and force his way into the conversation, but Hall looks like he has the goods in Paris.

The only man who’s recorded multiple sub-43-second runs in 2024, Hall is peaking for Thursday morning. Having run his season best 43.80 just three weeks ago and after following that up with a 43.95 in qualifying, he’s every chance to win gold.

Women’s Cycling: Team Pursuit Final
To Win Gold — New Zealand ($1.45)

Thursday, 4:57am
One of the marquee events of track cycling in Paris will draw to a close early on Thursday morning. New Zealand’s team is made up of Bryony Botha, Emily Shearman, Nicole Shields, Ally Wollaston and the quartet are a real chance of bringing home some metal, with some strong showings over the past year.

A second-place finish at last year’s World Championships (Shields has since replaced Michaela Drummond) will give the kiwis a real confidence boost heading into Thursday morning, but in front of them at that meeting were a strong Great Britain team who found themselves as the betting favourites to win gold heading into Paris.

However, a blistering qualifying time of 4:04.679 from the kiwis had them over half a second quicker than the next best qualifier, the USA, and has catapulted New Zealand into favouritism for Thursday morning’s showdown. That time from the Kiwis was just 0.45 seconds off the world record, set by Germany in Tokyo, and a step up in the final could well see a new world record — and gold — claimed by the women from Aotearoa.

Best: To Win Gold — New Zealand ($1.45)
Value: To Win Gold — Great Britain ($7.00)

Women’s Athletics: Pole Vault Final
To Win Gold — Nina Kennedy ($1.52)

Thursday, 5:00am
The women’s pole vault has been one of the most anticipated for Kiwis since Eliza McCartney’s rise to fame in Rio and there is real excitement heading into Thursday morning’s event. McCartney, as well as fellow New Zealanders Olivia McTaggart and Imogen Ayris, qualified successfully for the final, making for must-watch viewing on Thursday morning.

McCartney was the only one of the three to clear 4.55m in qualifying, as McTaggart and Ayris both failed their three attempts at that height, and it’s fair to say that the 2016 bronze medallist is Aotearoa’s best chance at a medal here. She’s ranked fifth in 2024, having recorded a 4.84m clearance in February, and a return to that form would likely see her in medal contention on Thursday morning. Ayris has a season best of 4.57m, while McTaggart is 6cm better off, posting a 4.63m effort in Finland in June.

The expected front-runner in this event was Great Britain’s Molly Caudery. The 24-year-old has enjoyed a rapid ascent in the women’s pole vault world, clearing 4.92m in Toulouse just six weeks ago to record the best clearance of 2024 so far but she failed to clear 4.55m in Monday night’s qualifiers, meaning she is no longer in contention.

The title of favourite now sits with Australia’s Nina Kennedy. Kennedy comes to Paris hot off a Diamond League win in London, clearing 4.85m, as Alysha Newman finished second and Caudery third. That’ll give the Aussie a big boost heading into this event, but with the likes of Angelica Moser (4.88m), 2020 gold medallist Katie Moon (4.85m) and Newman (4.83m) having recorded strong season bests, this is a relatively wide open field.

However, the consistency of Kennedy gives her a good chance of finishing with gold. Looking at standalone clearances this season, removing Caudery from the equation, Kennedy has two of the top three (4.88m and 4.85m) and that gives her a good chance of performing strongly and finishing with gold around her neck.

Best: To Win Gold — Nina Kennedy ($1.52)
Value: New Zealand To Win A Medal — Eliza McCartney ($6.00)

Men’s Athletics: Discus Final
To Win Silver Or Gold — Kristjan Ceh ($1.80)

Thursday, 6:25am
Something out of a Hollywood movie is potentially going to play out on Thursday morning. Current world record-holder Mykolas Alekna of Lithuania is looking to repeat his dad’s feat of winning gold in this event in 2000 and 2004, and good luck to anybody trying to get in the way of him achieving that.

Alekna has been on a tear in 2024, breaking a 37-year-old world record with a whopping 74.35m throw in April, and he’s continued to rack up the monster throws since, with three further 70m+ efforts.

The second-longest throw of the year belongs to Samoa’s Alex Rose. He recorded a massive 71.48m throw in May, and while he hasn’t been able to replicate that effort since, a 66.18m throw in his last meeting, winning the NYC Grand Prix.

Slovenia’s Kristjan Ceh will be one of Alekna’s big contenders, having won the World Championships in 2022 before winning silver last year. His 70.48m to win the Diamond League meeting in May is the fifth-longest throw of the season and proves that he will be ready to pounce if Alekna is anywhere below his best.

Daniel Ståhl is the defending champion and will be expecting to leave Paris with a medal, but his 2024 form has been mediocre. His best throw of the season came back in May and his best effort in July only came in at 66.99m. Australia’s Matthew Denny (69.35m) and Jamaica’s Ralford Mullings (69.67m) have strong season bests and could come into the equation for a podium finish.

Best: To Win Silver Or Gold — Kristjan Ceh ($1.80)
Value: To Win A Medal — Alex Rose ($17)

Men’s Beach Volleyball: Ahmed Tijan/Cherif (QAT) $1.44 v Benesh/Partain (USA) $2.60
Match Total Points — Over 83.5 ($1.91)

Thursday, 8:00am
Cherif Younousse and Ahmed Tijan have been on a tear in Paris, going on an unbeaten run to finish on top of Group A before recording a 2-0 win in their first knockout game in the Round of 16. Such is their dominance, the men from Qatar have dropped just one set in their four matches so far, and their victory over the heavily favoured David Ahman and Jonatan Hellvig of Sweden marked the as a real chance of improving on their Tokyo bronze.

In their way on Thursday morning are the American team of Miles Partain and Andy Benesh. The men from the USA have won three on the bounce, responding well from their opening defeat against Cuba. That first-up loss would have been a shock to the Americans, but the way that they have responded indicates that they are ready for their run in Paris to continue, having upset Brazil and Italy on the way. They will need to pull off another upset if they are to make it to the semifinals, but that looks to be a bridge too far. The Qatari pair have won three of their last four against Benesh and Partain, but two of which went to three sets and this is another one that will go the distance.

Kiwis In Action

Women’s Canoe Sprint

Aimee Fisher
K-1 500m Heat 1
Wednesday, 7:30pm

Lisa Carrington
K-1 500m Quarterfinal*
Wednesday, 11:30pm

Lisa Carrington
K-1 500m Heat 5
Wednesday, 7:35pm

Lisa Carrington
K-1 500m Quarterfinal*
Wednesday, 11:30pm

Men’s Athletics

Hamish Kerr
High Jump Qualification
Wednesday, 8:05pm

James Preston
800m Qualification
Wednesday, 9:55pm

Women’s Athletics

Tori Peeters
Javelin Qualification
Wednesday, 8:25pm

Women’s Golf

Lydia Ko
Stroke Play Round 1
Wednesday, 10:06pm

Women’s Sailing

Justina Kitchen
Kite Surf Races 7-16
Wednesday, 10:13pm

Men’s Sailing

Lukas Walton-Kleim
Kite Surf Races 8-16
Wednesday, 10:23pm

Men’s Track Cycling

Sam Dakin
Sprint Qualifying — Heat 10
Wednesday, 10:45pm

Sam Dakin
Sprint Finals*
Thursday, 12:30am

Keegan Hornblow, Aaron Gate, Campbell Stewart & Tom Sexton
4000m Team Pursuit Finals for 5-6
Thursday, 4:13am

Women’s Track Cycling

Ellesse Andrews
Keirin First Round — Heat 1
Wednesday, 11:26pm

Ellesse Andrews
Keirin Repechage*
Thursday, 1:10am

Rebecca Petch
Keirin First Round — Heat 4
Wednesday, 11:29pm

Rebecca Petch
Keirin Repechage*

Thursday, 1:10am

Ally Wollaston, Nicole Shields, Bryony Botha & Emily Shearman
Team Pursuit First Round
Wednesday, 11:52pm

Ally Wollaston, Nicole Shields, Bryony Botha & Emily Shearman
Team Pursuit Bronze Medal Final*
Thursday, 5:17am

Ally Wollaston, Nicole Shields, Bryony Botha & Emily Shearman
Team Pursuit Gold Medal Final*
Thursday, 5:28am

Mixed Sailing

Erica Dawson & Micah Wilkinson
Nacra Medal Race
Thursday, 12:43am

Women’s Diving

Lizzie Roussel
3m Springboard Preliminary
Thursday, 11:00am

Men’s Sailing

Thomas Saunders
One-person Dinghy Medal Race
Thursday, 1:13am

Women’s Athletics

Eliza McCartney | Imogen Ayris | Olivia McTaggart
Pole Vault Final
Thursday, 4:30am

Men’s Athletics

Ethan Olivier
Triple Jump Qualification
Thursday, 5:15am