History
There have been 43 Test matches played between New Zealand and England, and the All Blacks have a dominant 76.7% win percentage. However, recent encounters have been far from breezy for Saturday’s hosts, with a 25-15 draw in their last meeting in 2022 and a 19-7 win for England in the prior matchup at the 2019 Rugby World Cup. The last game between these two in Aotearoa came in 2014, which the All Blacks won 36-13 in Hamilton. The two teams met in Dunedin in that three-game series, which New Zealand narrowly won 28-27.
Form
New Zealand haven’t played since last year’s Rugby World Cup final, which saw them cruelly finish as runners-up. Making it that far was perhaps unexpected, given their struggles earlier in the year and in 2022, which saw a 7-35 demolition by the Springboks in the leadup to the WC, as well as unprecedented home defeats to Argentina and Ireland. That was all under Ian Foster, who has made way for new coach Scott Robertson.
England produced a third-place finish in the 2024 Six Nations, with an up-and-down campaign ending in disappointment. Their Six Nations run was filled with nail-biters, including a 16-14 win over Wales, a 23-22 triumph over Ireland, courtesy of a last-minute Marcus Smith drop goal, and a 31-33 defeat against France in the final round. Their only game since then came two weeks ago, when they thrashed Japan 52-17 in Tokyo.
Teams
New Zealand: 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 6 Samipeni Finau, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 TJ Perenara, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Mark Tele’a, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13- Rieko Ioane, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Stephen Perofeta. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett.
England: 1 Joe Marler, 2 Jamie George, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje, 5 George Martin, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 7 Sam Underhill, 8 Ben Earl, 9 Alex Mitchell, 10 Marcus Smith, 11 Tommy Freeman, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 13 Henry Slade, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 15 George Furbank. Reserves: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Dan Cole, 19- Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Ollie Sleightholme.
Scott Robertson has named a few surprises in his 23, including starting Stephen Perofeta at fullback over Beauden Barrett. At halfback, TJ Perenara will get his first taste of Test rugby in almost two years, while none of the uncapped players picked in Robertson’s wider squad feature in the 23.
Steve Borthwick has named a settled starting team from the team that demolished Japan a fortnight ago, with the front row the only part of the squad that has seen change. Joe Marler and Will Stuart come in as the run-on props, while prop Fin Baxter and winger Ollie Sleightholme are in line to make their debuts off the pine.
Stats That Matter
- The last three games between these teams have resulted in one win for New Zealand (2018), one win for England (2019) and one draw (2022)
- The only prior match between these teams in Dunedin ended in a 28-27 victory for the All Blacks
- Adding Carisbrook to the equation, the All Blacks are 3-0 against England in Dunedin, with wins at the House of Pain coming in 1998 (64-22) and 2004 (36-3)
- England have covered the spread in their last three games
- Since 2014, just one of the seven meetings between New Zealand and England has exceeded 50 total points
The Verdict
The Scott Robertson era is officially underway, to much anticipation. Hosting England for two games, Razor has his chance to get his time as All Blacks head coach off to a winning start, but the visitors will be no pushovers. Since overtaking Eddie Jones as England’s coach in late 2022, Steve Borthwick’s reign got off to a shaky start but a third-place finish at last year’s World Cup, as well as an eye-opening win over Ireland in this year’s Six Nations indicates that this England team are here to win. Robertson has named a dynamic XV, with the loosies all capable ball runners, the backs possessing plenty of firepower and the bench containing some spark, but some new combinations may take time to gel. The Perenara-McKenzie 9-10 combo is new, Stephen Perofeta has just three caps under his belt and Samipeni Finau has just one Test against Australia to his name. Despite guaranteed dry conditions at Forsyth Barr Stadium, I expect the All Blacks to show plenty of teething issues under a new regime, meaning we’ll see a total below 53.5 points.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 8
Best: Under 53.5 ($1.90)
Value: New Zealand 1-10 ($3.30)
Same Game Multi: Under 53.5 / New Zealand 1-10 / Anytime Try Scorer — Codie Taylor ($18.05)