Hastings hosts a 10-race card for Livamol Classic Day on Saturday, with the track rated a Good4 and the rail out 2m. The forecast for the Hawke’s Bay is clear, which should see the track race in a fast state for the duration of the card.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the ten races at the Hastings meeting on Saturday 10th October below:
Don Giuseppe (#1) is a 2yo Ardrossan colt heading here Peter & Shaun McKay, who like the rest of this field is on debut. He showed good improvement at his latest trial, where he sat outside the leader and strode away late, posting the fastest time of the day in the process. The wider draw is a touch niggly, but he appears to have good tactical speed, so should be able to roll up towards the speed under Craig Grylls. Hard to be overly confident in a field of 2yos on debut, but he should go close if he runs up to his latest trial.
| 1. Don Giuseppe (6) 57kg |
Los Salsero (#4) sat up on speed in a solidly run race here last start, but just peaked late after being left in front a long way out, finishing 4th. He maps to settle midfield with cover this time around, where I expect Michael McNab may look to be a tad more neutral early. With a better run in transit, he should take plenty of stopping in this field.
| 4. Los Salsero (7) 59kg73254 |
Pacific Princess (#7) is a locally trained mare who comes here off a narrow win here last start over 2100m. She’s third-up now and looks as well suited as any by the likely firm conditions underfoot. Kavish Chowdhoory takes the reins again, and she maps to settle ahead of midfield from her wider draw in a race lacking any tempo. Capable of going back-to-back in what is a very even field.
| 7. Pacific Princess (8) 55kg61X21 |
Live On Air (#6) sat just off the speed here last start and came hard late after taking a while to balance up in the straight, going down narrowly for 2nd. She maps to settle back of midfield from a middle barrier, in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged – with much of the speed drawn out wide. She has the best turn of foot in this field and can go on by late with the right run in transit.
| 6. Live On Air (6) 58kg08832 |
Navy Dreams (#5) took a while to balance up and go through his gears here last start, but really lengthened out nicely over the last 100m to be beaten just 0.3L into 2nd. He comes here second-up, and that resuming run suggested he would be ideally suited getting out over 1400m at his next start. Matt Cartwright takes the reins from a nice low gate, which should see him afforded a great run ahead of midfield with cover. A lot in his favour to suggest he’ll take plenty of beating in this.
| 5. Navy Dreams (3) 57kg344X2 | |||
| Returned from a spell last start with a solid second, beaten 0.3 lengths, at this track over 1300m. Fitter and worth following up. | |||
Fortunato (#3) is a locally trained 3yo who comes here at just his third career start for Guy Lowry & Leah Zydenbos. He got back and made no impression after bombing the start in the Gr.2 Hawke’s Bay Guineas here last start. While his two efforts to date haven’t rated all that well, he hasn’t had the setup to run much better than he has. He draws a nice low gate, and if he steps evenly he maps to get a great run just off the speed, but that is the big if. I think he has more upside and can bounce back here with a clean getaway.
| 3. Fortunato (3) 57kg18 | |||
| Won first up at Taupo but couldn’t repeat the feat last start when eighth over 1400m at this track. Can improve on the last effort. | |||
Golden Wings (#2) comes here off a comfortable win at Ellerslie first-up, where he led and booted away in the straight. He’s now heading here second-up and looks suited remaining at 1200m. He maps to settle outside the likely leader Showbastian Coe from his outside gate, where they should be able to dictate terms once finding the front. Can take plenty of beating again here if they don’t overdo it in front.
| 2. Golden Wings (10) 59.5kg120X1 |
Affirmative Action (#10) got home strongly from a midfield position last start at Te Rapa but came up just short. He comes into this assignment third-up and looks suited by the rise to 1400m here. George Rooke takes the reins, and he looks well placed on the minimum carrying just 53kg. He maps to settle handy to the speed from a nice low gate, where he should be able to hold a position a couple of pairs off the speed at worst. Looks ready to peak for this, can go one better.
| 10. Affirmative Action (3) 53kg00X42 |
Tuxedo (#2) sustained a long run from the back of the field here last start in the Howden Insurance Mile, beaten narrowly by Waitak. Opie Bosson takes the reins again, and from the better draw he maps to settle closer this time around. He raced a touch keenly last start, therefore the blinkers coming off and a race that looks to have an even-genuine tempo engaged should help him relax well. Think he should get the right setup to turn the tables on Waitak here.
| 2. Tuxedo (6) 59kg53X52 |
Origin Of Love (#6) sat just off the speed throughout last start at Te Rapa and got home nicely enough once clear late, finishing 4th. She comes here third-up and looks suited stepping out over a mile. She maps to settle handy to the speed from the inside gate, which should either see her leading or trailing the likes of Prometheus throughout under Michael McNab. Should be nearing her peak for this, and she’s the one they have to beat on paper.
| 6. Origin Of Love (1) 58.5kg31X64 |