Trentham hosts an eight-race card on Saturday for Metric Mile Day, with the track rated a Heavy8 and the rail out 6m. Showers are forecast for the Upper Hutt area ahead of raceday, which could see the track slip deep into the Heavy range.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the eight races at the Trentham meeting on Saturday 19 September below:
Justashotaway (#1) was attacked in front last start at Wanganui, eventually having to race outside the leader, but he fought on well enough for 3rd. He comes here third-up and steps up in trip for this assignment. Leah Hemi takes the reins for this, and he maps to settle handy to the speed from the wide gate. Expect he can run a better race if he can dictate terms from the front, or races outside the leader without burning too many tickets here.
| 1. Justashotaway (6) 58.5kg23 |
Midnight Dart (#2) got back and never really threatened in the Wanganui Guineas last start, well beaten into 10th. He comes here third-up with those two Heavy track runs under his belt, and should be rock hard fit for this as a result. He maps to settle handy to the speed throughout from a nice low gate. With race fitness on his side, he could take some beating if the track comes up testing.
| 2. Midnight Dart (2) 57kg02520 |
Carlow (#2) got back and made little impression last start at Wanganui, finishing off fairly into 6th. He comes here rock hard fit and looks suited by the likelihood of a testing Heavy track. He maps to settle off the speed from a nice low gate, where he should be afforded every chance again here. Can run a much improved race.
| 2. Carlow (2) 59kgX6126 |
High Rock (#14) resumes here, last seen finishing 6th at Woodville back in April, closing off well from a long way back without ever really getting into the race. He’s trialled very nicely ahead of his resumption, striding out strongly in the latest to win well. The wide gate could work in his favour if the fence is deteriorating after the earlier races. Looks hard to beat first-up off a spell if he copes with the track.
| 14. High Rock (8) 56kg6X |
Derryman (#5) was a touch one-paced when the sprint went on turning for home last start at Ellerslie, though found himself running into backsides once he got going in the straight, settling for 4th. He’s got plenty of racing under his belt this campaign, including a couple of hurdling starts through the winter, which should have him ready for a testing track. He maps to settle midfield with cover from a middle barrier, which should see him blending into the race late. Can take some beating in an even field.
| 5. Derryman (5)SCRATCHED: | |||
Meloni (#6) sat off the speed last start at Wanganui and came home strongly in the straight once eventually clear, coming up just short for 4th. He should be better for that resuming run now second-up, and looks suited getting out over a mile here too. Craig Grylls takes the reins again, and from a nice low draw he maps to settle midfield with cover in what looks an evenly run race. Looks hard to beat.
| 6. Meloni (2) 59kgX68X4 |
Freddie Time (#5) closed off nicely from the back of the field last start at Wanganui, staying on nicely for 4th at a distance short of his best. He comes here third-up this prep and now gets over a much more suitable trip here. Lisa Allpress taking the reins looks a big tick, and he maps to settle back off what should be a strong tempo. Plenty in his favour to suggest he should take some beating here.
| 5. Freddie Time (9) 54.5kg02X44 |
Belzoni (#4) was held up at a crucial stage turning for home last start at Wanganui, forced to try and sprint through the inferior going nearer the fence when 3rd. He drops back to R75 company here, which sees him atop the weights as a consequence. He maps to settle back in the field from a nice low gate, where he’ll likely look to be blending in down the outer late. His recent race fitness should stand him in good stead here come the last of the day. Should go close.
| 4. Belzoni (2) 60kg17223 |