Te Aroha hosts a ten-race program on Sunday for Pakuranga Hunt Cup Day, with the track rated a Soft7 and the rail out 4m from the 1400m to the 1000m, with the remainder out 8m. Isolated showers ahead of Sunday may see the track slip into the Heavy range.
Mitch Davis has been through the form guide and speed maps and has provided his race analysis and betting strategy for each of the 10 races at the Te Aroha meeting on Sunday 30 August below:
Outovstock (#6) makes his hurdling debut here for the Nelson/McDougal team, one of the country’s leading jumping stables. He is without doubt the best performed flat horse in this field, having been a Gr.3 Manawatu Classic winner as a 3yo, though that was also the last time he was a race winner. He has had the benefit of four runs on the flat this time in to ready him for this 3100m hurdling assignment, so should be rock hard fit. Will be better suited than most if the track can remain at the better end of the Heavy range.
| 6. Outovstock (4) J: Jay Kozaczek 68kg X8706T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Kick On (#7) is relatively new to the jumping caper, coming here at just his fourth hurdling start for the Kevin Myers stable. He won his last start very impressively in a 0-1 win hurdle at Riccarton earlier this month, where he was ridden very patiently and grabbed his stablemate Billy in the shadows to win. He will be better suited than most of the more accomplished jumpers in here if the track plays towards the better end of the Heavy range, as he is the sharpest flat horse in this field. Can go on with his winning ways.
| 7. Kick On (3) J: Kylan Wiles 65kg 21531T: Kevin Myers |
The Bossman (#1) heads here off a last-start win in an amateur riders race in maiden company, where he strode clear for a big win on a testing Heavy track under Scotty MacNab. While he may not get as testing a surface here, the simple fact that he retains the services of the country’s best amateur rider in Scotty MacNab is enough to stay in his corner. Expecting Scotty to find a similar position around midfield with cover from his wide draw before looking to blend into the race late. Can go back-to-back.
| 1. The Bossman (12) J: Scotty MacNab 69kg 51T: Kevin Myers |
Taika (#5) is a well-performed hurdler making his steeplechase debut in this maiden steeplechase field – often a recipe for success. He comes here off a last-start 4th earlier this month in the Grand National Hurdles at Riccarton, where he ran a brave race after being attacked a long way from home but just battled late. He looks very well placed in this maiden steeplechase, carrying the same weight as he did last start in the Grand National. Will be better suited if the track can remain at the better end of the Heavy range. Should take some beating.
| 5. Taika (1) J: Joshua Parker 68kg 02854T: Paul Nelson & Corrina McDougal |
Ellendale (#13) is a 3yo Proisir filly on debut for Tony Pike, having had six trials to prepare ahead of her first start. She has shown good improvement through her trials and looks a more furnished product going off how she has trialled in her two hits-out this prep. As a 3yo filly taking on the older horses, she finds herself nicely situated down in the weights carrying just 54kg with Michael McNab aboard. She should be able to hold a position ahead of midfield from her middle draw, where McNab should give her every chance to run a bold race on debut.
| 13. Ellendale (7) J: Michael McNab 54kg T: Tony Pike |
Happy Star (#6) is a well-accomplished hurdler who made an immediate impact at his steeplechase debut last week at Hawera, cruising to the line in second gear to win by 15L in the process. Given he is new to the steeplechase caper, he finds himself well situated down in the weights carrying just 65kg against some more exposed steeplechasers here. He should only be better for that first look at the bigger fences and comes here rock hard fit on the short back-up. Hard to beat.
| 6. Happy Star (6) J: Kylan Wiles 65kg 31331T: Kevin Myers |
Gin And Bare It (#12) is a progressive speedy filly who has won her past two starts on Heavy tracks in very impressive fashion. She comes here off a short freshen, six weeks between runs, and now rises in grade tackling a very handy R75 field. As a consequence, she finds herself well situated right down in the weights carrying just 51.5kg after Joe Nishizuka’s claim. From the inside gate, she should lead and run along and could take plenty of catching over the 1150m trip.
| 12. Gin And Bare It (1) J: Joe Nishizuka 51.5kg 2211T: Kylie Fawcett |
Joshua Brown (#2) is an enigmatic galloper who can be hard to catch at times and has been quite hit or miss this time in without winning. He was scratched from the 2100m race at Te Rapa last weekend and instead heads here over his preferred trip. The blinkers go on for this, which may spark some improvement, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take up a forward position from the wide draw with them on given there doesn’t appear to be much tempo on paper. Very capable on his day and could take some beating if he finds something near his best.
| 2. Joshua Brown (10) J: Lynsey Satherley 57.5kg 76260T: Lance Gussey |
Kalgarry Ally (#10) is a 4yo Almanzor mare who has been getting better with every run in her short career to date, placing at her past three starts. She was last sighted finishing off strongly for 2nd at Te Rapa last start, making up good ground from midfield in a race dominated by those up near the speed. Given how she has been getting home lately, the rise to 1400m here may just be what she is after. Finds a winnable maiden to be going one better.
| 10. Kalgarry Ally (4) J: Samantha Collett 56.5kg 90322T: Darryn & Briar Weatherley |
Girlzgirlzgirlz (#5) bounced back with an improved effort for 2nd last start at Te Rapa, where she was much more suited by the Heavy conditions underfoot than the Good4 track she struck prior. The wide draw come the last of the day shouldn’t be a negative, if anything it may be a positive to be off the fence at this stage of the card. She should be able to work forward early and take up a prominent position under 3kg claimer Tom Wigram in a race that looks to have a genuine tempo engaged. May just require a touch of luck early to be a factor again here.
| 5. Girlzgirlzgirlz (13) J: Tom Wigram 54.5kg 4102T: Donna Logan |


