It’s last chance saloon for Macarthur who have to win out to have any hope of making the finals.
Standing in their way this weekend is a Victory side that could move up to third place (temporarily at least) with a win and needs just the one point to lock up a finals berth.
The Bulls have had no troubles scoring in recent weeks with a 5-4 win in Adelaide and a 5-1 win in Brisbane as well as a 3-3 draw at home to Newcastle and a 2-2 draw in Gosford over the last month and a bit.
Most concerning though is their home form which has been poor (to put it politely) with just a record of one win, four draws and four defeats, plus a loss as the “home” team in Unite Round.
That makes the visitors the best bet in this market and there is value to be had backing another high scoring Macarthur match.
BEST: Melbourne Victory to Win $2.10 | VALUE: Victory to Win and Over 3.5 Goals $4.00
Seeing Brisbane going into a match as $1.90 favourites is a jarring sight if you have watched the Roar this season.
They have won a grand total of three games all season, and even if one of those was over title contenders Western United last Thursday, can you really back them with any confidence?
It’s not like Wellington is in great form either with an only slightly better return this season, losing 12 of their 24 matches to date.
Let’s just call this head to head market a stay away and instead look for some value at the total goals market.
Wellington’s last four games have all had three or more goals scored and five in each of the last two, while the over has been a strong play for Brisbane as well.
Two bad teams facing off, let’s just back the over and hope for some entertainment because neither one is playing well enough to take here.
BEST: Over 2.5 Goals $1.65 | VALUE: Over 4.5 Goals $4.40
Newcastle’s only remaining motivation this season is playing spoiler for finals bound teams and they could really throw a wrench in Western Sydney’s hopes.
They have had their moments lately, first beating Central Coast 6-0 then racing out to an early 2-0 lead over Sydney FC, however they did lose that one 3-2 in the end.
In fact, including that clean sheet win over the Mariners, the Jets have conceded 14 goals across their last five games and that is not a great record.
Western Sydney have been scoring for fun on their ten game unbeaten run, scoring two goals on eight occasions, three goals in four matches and four goals three times.
Long story short, Western Sydney can score and Newcastle can’t defend, should be relative one way traffic.
BEST: Western Sydney to Win $2.05 | VALUE: Western Sydney to Win and Over 4.5 Goals $6.50
We might have said earlier it is last chance saloon for Macarthur, well it really is for Adelaide who were the unfortunate recipients of a Round 29 bye.
Level on points with Sydney FC, the Reds have to win this game to give themselves a solid chance of playing finals football.
However their recent record suggests that even a draw might be an optimistic request, with just one win from their last ten matches and just six points over that span.
Compare that to Melbourne City who are unbeaten in four and have the scoring prowess to cause some problems.
This one is a pretty easy call.
BEST: Melbourne City to Win $1.80 | VALUE: Melbourne City to Win Both Halves $4.60
Let’s assume that Melbourne City takes care of business on Saturday night because, they should and it also sets up a far more entertaining scenario for this game.
Auckland are one point away from the premiership and they have a home game against wooden spoon elect Perth Glory.
The newbies will be very eager to atone for their shock 1-0 loss to the Glory in Perth back in January, although the visitors will be buzzing after a resounding 4-1 win over Adelaide in their last outing.
Of course it is possible to overthink this one, but for the sake of ease, let’s just take the good team to beat the bad team.
BEST: Auckland HT/FT Double $1.85 | VALUE: Auckland to Win and Under 2.5 Goals $4.33
Should we be overly concerned about Western United’s slip in results?
A loss to Western Sydney is one thing, but their 2-1 defeat in Brisbane was according to John Aloisi one of their poorest performances of the year.
However they have had a mini-bye over the Easter weekend to reset and refresh to prepare for the run home.
Sydney on the other hand have picked up seven of a possible nine points from their last three league outings and still have to pick up something over the next two weeks to stay ahead of Adelaide.
However with both sides needing something from the game, this becomes a de facto final and history says that goals become a lot more precious.
I can’t split these sides and am expecting this to be a relatively low scoring affair with the spoils shared.
BEST: Under 3.5 Goals $2.00 | VALUE: Draw $4.00