After an outstanding week of NFL tips last week, Nick Tedeschi is back with his preview of Week 15.
Jacksonville +3.5 (v NY Jets)
The Jets are 1-7 against the spread under Jeff Ulbrich – there is absolutely no way they should be favoured on the road against anyone.
Detroit -2 (v Buffalo)
Jared off is 15-5 against the spread off a non-cover while Detroit are 22-9 against the number at home and 20-7 against the spread when playing winning teams.
Green Bay -3 (at Seattle)
The NFC North has a ridiculous 64% cover rate when playing non-division matchups while Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 29-17 against the spread v winning teams.
Minnesota -7 (v Chicago)
Rookie quarterbacks from Week 10 onwards cover at just 43.1% while the Bears cover at just 38% on the road. The Vikings are a great bet.
The Falcons have done nothing to make them so heavily favoured on the road. Re-tread coaches off a loss cover at just 43% while Kirk Cousins is 16-31 against the spread indoors. The Raiders keep playing for Antonio Pierce and can get a deserved win this week.
Over 45 Kansas City-Cleveland
The Browns tend to go over the total when playing winning teams with the over 22-9 when Kevin Stefanski is a head coach against teams over .500.
Under 43.5 Baltimore-NY Giants
The under is 24-4 when the Giants are a home underdog while under Brian Daboll’s stewardship, the under is 17-7 when the Giants are an underdog.
Under 49 LA Rams-San Francisco
The under hits at a very good rate when division teams play late in the season, going under at 59% when the total is 44.5 or more in Week 11 onwards.
Under 49 LA Rams-San Francisco
The under hits at a very good rate when division teams play late in the season, going under at 59% when the total is 44.5 or more in Week 11 onwards.
Green Bay -3 (at Seattle)
The NFC North has a ridiculous 64% cover rate when playing non-division matchups while Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 29-17 against the spread v winning teams.
Minnesota -7 (v Chicago)
Rookie quarterbacks from Week 10 onwards cover at just 43.1% while the Bears cover at just 38% on the road. The Vikings are a great bet.
Las Vegas @ $2.95 (v Atlanta)
The Falcons have done nothing to make them so heavily favoured on the road. Re-tread coaches off a loss cover at just 43% while Kirk Cousins is 16-31 against the spread indoors. The Raiders keep playing for Antonio Pierce and can get a deserved win this week.
Jacksonville was listed among the best bets of the week. Carolina have now covered six straight and meet a Dallas team that is done. Cincinnati are 16-1 against the spread when favoured on the road by between three and seven points.
Detroit are named among the best plays of Week 15. Denver are included as rookie QBs cover at nearly 73% when favoured at home. The Chargers are an elite level team who should be favoured by a lot more against the Bucs.
Jauan Jennings is enjoying a breakout season, emerging as Brock Purdy’s favourite target. He has six touchdowns but most notably has at least seven targets in four of his last five.
Achane has scored in six of his last seven games. Derek Henry has 15 touchdowns this year and has not scored in his last two – so should break that drought with the Ravens favoured by 15 points. Jeudy has scored in three of the last four and has at least five catches in his last six outings.
Nacua has topped 98 yards in five of the six full games he has played. Jennings has topped 90 yards in three of his last five. Ricky Pearsall has one catch on five targets across his last four games.