Minnesota -5.5 (v Atlanta)
NFC North teams have covered at a clip of 63% against non-division teams the last two years while teams off four straight wins but outscoring opponents by less than 30 cover at 67.1%.
Las Vegas +6.5 (at Tampa Bay)
The Bucs are a big play against team this week with teams coming off overtime covering at just 44% and Bake Mayfield 5-14 ATS as a home favourite.
Miami -6 (v NY Jets)
The Dolphins have covered 12 of the last 16 against the Jets with Tua 12-4 ATS when favoured by six or more.
LA Chargers +4 (at Kansas City)
Patrick Mahomes has covered just four of 15 division games while Kansas City have failed to cover their last six.
Derek Carr is a horrific 1-14-1 against the spread as a road favourite while teams off seven straight non-covers are 12-5 against the number making the Giants a value play this week.
Under 51.5 Green Bay-Detroit
The under is 22-9 when Thursday Night Football since 2011 when the total is 50 or higher while the under hits at 59% in division games when the total is 44.5 or more from Week 11 onwards.
Under 41 New Orleans-NY Giants
The under is 23-4 when the Giants are a home underdog while under Brian Daboll’s stewardship, the under is 16-7 when the Giants are an underdog.
Under 43 LA Chargers-Kansas City
The under is 20-9 in the last 29 Chargers games while the under hits at 61% when Patrick Mahomes plays at home.
Under 51.5 Green Bay-Detroit
The under is 22-9 when Thursday Night Football since 2011 when the total is 50 or higher while the under hits at 59% in division games when the total is 44.5 or more from Week 11 onwards.
Under 43 LA Chargers-Kansas City
The under is 20-9 in the last 29 Chargers games while the under hits at 61% when Patrick Mahomes plays at home.
Cincinnati -5.5 (at Dallas)
Home teams cover at just 29.4% in non-conference Monday Night Football while teams who have won 35% or fewer of their games as a favourite off a loss as a favourite are 6-2 against the spread.
All three are among the best bets for Week 14.
Arizona has not allowed a touchdown in their last three home games while Geno Smith is 7-15-1 against the spread against teams with a worse record. Josh Allen is 29-4 when against teams that are sub .500. Brock Purdy is 3-11 against the spread against teams with a worse record.
Jonnu Smith has become a major part of the Dolphins offense with 25 catches on 32 targets netting three touchdowns the last three weeks.
Achane has scored in five of his last six games. Barkley has seven touchdowns in his last five outings. Jeudy has scored in two of the last three and has at least five catches in his last five.
Robinson has topped 86 rush yards in five of his last seven games. McCloud has 10 catches in his last two games with yardages of 46 and 95. Jefferson has reached 81 yards in nine of his last 11.