Just as it was 12 months ago, Brisbane will play Sydney FC in their home opener with the Roar fresh off a bye. In their two competitive fixtures so far, an Australia Cup loss to Perth and defeat in Auckland in Round 1, the Roar have not offered a lot of signs for encouragement however both performances do come with some excuses. Sydney on the other hand are coming off a loss in Auckland last week but did have a lot of travel to deal with in the lead up to the match. All signs are pointing towards a tight, low scoring affair with the Roar still finding their way and Sydney dealing with injuries to several players including Joe Lolley. That makes the price on the under surprisingly high and the best play in this market. If we have to find a winner look for Sydney to edge out the Roar 1-0 or 2-0.
BEST: Under 2.5 Goals $2.40 | VALUE: Sydney to Win and Under 2.5 Goals $5.75
Saturday’s triple header kicks off with the biggest game of the round, the inaugural Kiwi Clasico as the Nix welcome the new boys to the capital. You have to give both clubs credit for the way they have completely bought into this rivalry, most recently the Nix flying a banner over Auckland’s home game last week proclaiming the country to be “yellow”. Now is the first chance for bragging rights to be claimed on the pitch and the market is having a tough time splitting these teams. In the 2023/24 campaign, the Nix were a tough beat at home winning ten, drawing two and losing once during the regular season and this will be the Black Knights’ first A-League away day. I’m happy to back the home side to take the inaugural derby in what should be an entertaining match.
BEST: Wellington to Win $2.40 | VALUE: Draw/Wellington HT/FT $ 5.75
While the Mariners might be off to a slow start in their campaign, it is nothing compared to what is going on in Perth. The fans clamoured for a response from their Round 1 humiliation against Macarthur and instead saw another loss, this time against Perth. Having to head to the home of the reigning champions in Round 3 is not a recipe for an instant turnaround either and I’m more than happy to take on the Glory on the road. The market is heavily slanted towards a high scoring game but the Mariners have not exactly fired in their two A-League matches so far.
BEST: Central Coast to Win & Under 4.5 Goals $2.00 | VALUE: Ryan Edmonson First Goalscorer
This will be the second meeting between these clubs this season with the Reds advancing in the Australia Cup after a hard fought match went to extra time. The draw certainly looks like the way to go in this match given both clubs are coming off 1-1 stalemates last weekend and the Wanderers have not quite lived up to their preseason hype just yet. However, Brandon Borello was very impressive against Western United last week, opening the scoring inside a quarter of an hour and he’s a worthwhile shout to repeat that feat once again.
BEST: Draw $3.90 | VALUE: Brandon Borello First Goalscorer
Sunday’s lone fixture is a repeat of the 2024 Australia Cup Final with Macarthur heading down to Melbourne to take on the Victory. On that occasion it was the Bulls emerging victorious thanks in no small part to the heroics of their keeper Filip Kurto. The Polish shot stopper will need to be on his game once again with the Victory belting local rivals City last weekend and the market has swung heavily towards the home side. Considering Macarthur were well below their best in Newcastle last week it makes sense on the surface, however the visitors are a much better chance to get something from this match than their current quote and I’ll back them in to get something.
BEST: Macarthur Win/Draw Double $2.30 | VALUE: Macarthur to Win $4.80
Cup Eve sees Western United taking this home game to AAMI Park to take on Melbourne City with both clubs desperate for the win. For John Aloisi’s side they would love to pick up their first win of the season after consecutive 1-1 draws, while City will be desperate to bounce back from their Melbourne Derby humiliation last week at the hands of the Victory. History certainly favours City with five wins from six meetings over the last two seasons and I’ll back them in here.
BEST: Melbourne City to Win $2.02 | VALUE: Melbourne City to Win and Under 2.5 Goals $5.50