{"id":4493,"date":"2024-09-07T21:03:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-07T09:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=4493"},"modified":"2024-09-08T07:42:42","modified_gmt":"2024-09-07T19:42:42","slug":"nrl-tips-preview-round-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2024\/09\/nrl-tips-preview-round-27\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 27"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Evan Psarras previews every game in Round 27 of the 2024 NRL Premiership.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n
9:50pm, Thursday 5 September | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane<\/div>\n
Storm -15.5 ($1.83)<\/div>\n
Broncos 12 – 50 Storm<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Broncos push for a finals spot came to an end last week and it was that man Wayne Bennett who would come back to haunt his former club. The Dolphins thumped them 40-6 in yet another loss for the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium this season. Meanwhile, the Storm firmed in premiership betting despite losing to the Cowboys. A second-string Storm side put 30 on the Cowboys and Craig Bellamy has opted to play almost a full strength side this week with Papenhuyzen (leg injury) the only notable name not on the team list. No Staggs, Haas or Piakura for the Broncos who have called upon the services of Corey Oates and Kobe Hetherington.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:<\/em>
\nThis history between these two teams is one that makes very little sense. Saying that the Storm have dominated this matchup would be an understatement of mass proportions as they have completely owned the Broncos. The Storm have won 15 of the last 16 meetings, 9 in a row as the away team and 23 of the last 25 as the betting favourite! Their numbers at the line are almost as scary as they have posted a 10-2 line record in the last 12 as the away team and have successfully covered the start in 6 of the last 7 as an away favourite. The Over has hit in 9 of the last 12 battles hosted by the Broncos with the Storm scoring 40+ points in 6 of their previous 9 against the Broncos played at Suncorp Stadium.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:<\/em>
\nThe Storm have won 7 of their last 8 as an away favourite and are a perfect 6-0 after a loss in the last year. In comparison, the Broncos were almost unbeatable at home last season but a 5-6 record as the home team in 2024 tells the story of their season. A lack of commitment in defence has been the biggest issue for the Broncos who have conceded 33.8ppg in their last 5. The Dolphins got the jump on them early last week and we could see a repeat here as the Storm have scored the opening try in each of their last 5 games. The Over has hit in 69% of Broncos home games in the last 12 months and they have consistently underperformed having failed to cover the line in their last 7 home games.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/em>
\nCraig Bellamy had a plan prior to last week and that was to play as strong a team as possible in the final round of the regular season. That plan has come under fire after what happened to the Roosters last week but one thing we should never do is question any decisions that Bellamy makes. We will likely see several of their stars get an early shower but that will not prevent them running riot on a Broncos team that has given up. Wishart was phenomenal for the Storm last week and will be a livewire off the bench when he comes on. Along with Faalogo, they provide the Storm with and explosiveness in attack that the Broncos will not be able to match.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Storm -15.5 ($1.83)
\nSame Game Multi: Storm WIN, Over 51.5 points, Faalogo Anytime Tryscorer, Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer ($4.61)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n

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\n
Wests Tigers<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Parramatta Eels<\/div>\n
8:00pm, Friday 6 September | Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Over 53.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n
Wests Tigers 26 – 60 Eels<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

While teams at the top are busy jostling ladder positions for the finals, the Tigers and Eels face off in the \u2018Spoon Bowl\u2019 with the losing side to be handed the wooden spoon for finishing last. The Tigers are fresh off the bye while the Eels are coming off a very impressive upset win over the Dragons.\u202fFeledy replaces Alaimalo (concussion) while Sezer has been named despite suffering a shoulder injury last time out. Russell return on the wing for the visitors as does Tuilagi who faces the club he made his debut for back in 2021.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:<\/em>
\nThis has been the Easter Monday matchup for several years now and a matchup that rarely disappoints. The last 4 meetings have been decided by an average margin of only 4 points with a field goal splitting the sides in two of those games. The away team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and the Eels have an excellent record in this spot. They have won their last 5 games away to the Tigers and 9 of their last 10 as an away favourite in this series. The Tigers are 4-0 at the line in the last 4 clashes but the most evident trend is that relating to total points. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 clashes hosted by the Tigers including each of the last 6!<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:<\/em>
\nThe Eels have won only 1 of their last 5 following a win and have covered the line only twice in those games. Similarly, the Tigers have not been great at gathering momentum and you must go back to April 2018, more than 6 years ago, to find the last time that the Tigers won three in a row. The biggest positive for the home side is how poor the Eels have been on the road. They are 0-2 both straight up and at the line in their last 2 as an away favourite and have won only 1 of their 11 away games played in the last year (2-9 at the line).<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/em>
\nA fortnight ago the Tigers came to beat the Sea Eagles despite trailing 16-0 midway through the first half. It is fair to say that they got the rub of the green and a bumper crowd at Campbelltown Stadium will almost certainly see a repeat of this. Both sides have struggled defensively so there is no reason to believe that they will suddenly be able to defend their line. The Eels have allowed 31.4ppg in their last 10 with the Tigers conceding 35.6ppg over the same period. Both teams have scored 24+ points in 3 of the Eels last 4 games and that trend will continue here. Tigers to avoid the spoon!<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Over 53.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Tigers WIN, 61 Points or More, Sean Russell Anytime Tryscorer, Junior Tupou Anytime Tryscorer ($15.86)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n

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\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
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South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n
10:00pm, Friday 6 September | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Under 53.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n
Rabbitohs 28 – 36 Roosters<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Things didn\u2019t just go bad for the Roosters last week, it was an absolute disaster. Not only did the Raiders take the two points on offer but the Roosters chances of winning the premierships have been dealt a severe blow with the trio of Sam Walker, Brandon Smith and Victor Radley all gone for the rest of the season. To make matters worse, they will now likely play away in Week 1 of the finals against either the Storm or Panthers.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:<\/em>
\nThe oldest rivalry in rugby league resumes and the Rabbitohs would love nothing better than to end their season with a win over the Roosters. The Roosters have won the last three clashes, and a win here would mean achieving the season double over the Rabbitohs for a second consecutive season. Any notion that this one will be a walk in the park for the Roosters should be set aside as the Rabbitohs have posted a 5-1 record both straight up and at the line in the last 6 encounters as a home underdog. The Under is 8-4 in the last 12 clashes hosted by the Rabbitohs with 5 of the last 6 meetings overall producing no more than 44 total match points.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:<\/em>
\nIn the last year, the Roosters have been at their best in this scenario. They have won 7 of their last 8 and have been successful at the line in all but two of those games. The Over has hit in 75% of those fixtures and they have scored 40+ points in each of their last two away games. In contrast, the Rabbitohs have been unable to break a streak of losses. They have lost their last 6 games and have fallen to 3-13 in their last 16 when coming off a loss. A terrible 25% strike rate at the line reveals just how poor they have been. An average of fewer than 14ppg during their 6-game losing streak is part of the reason why with the Under having held on in 8 of their last 10 night matches.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/em>
\nAfter being battered and bruised by the Raiders last week, forming new combinations prior to the finals will be critical for the Roosters. Their attack lacked cohesion once Sam Walker went off last week and there was far too much sideways running from the likes of Manu. More importantly, losses to multiple spine players means they will have to rely more on their defence come finals time and it starts with holding out the Rabbitohs in this one. Cannot see the Bunnies scoring more than two tries and that makes the Unders an attractive play.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Under 53.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Roosters 1-12, Manu Anytime Tryscorer ($7.32)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n

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\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
St. George-Illawarra Dragons<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n
5:00pm, Saturday 7 September | Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Under 51.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n
Dragons 24 – 26 Raiders<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

With a spot in the top 8 on the line heading into their battle against the Eels last week, there’s only one word to describe the Dragons performance – disgraceful. They trailed 36-6 at one point early in the second half and conceded 44 points to the team coming last in a must-win game. In contrast, the Raiders had nothing to play for with respect to a finals spot but showed tremendous heart and fight to upset the Roosters. Jacob Liddle returns to the side after missing last week to attend the birth of his child with the duo of Suli and Tuipulotu also slated to return. The duo of Rapana (injury) and Whitehead (suspension) have played their last game for the Green Machine with Weekes shifting to fullback and Fogarty back in the halves.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:<\/em>
\nThe Raiders have been a bogey side for the Dragons for an extended period. At one stage they had won 9 in a row against the Red V and most recently have won 7 of the last 9 clashes. That includes victory in each of the last three clashes, all of which have been by a 1-12 margin. Despite this dominance, the Dragons have surprisingly managed to cover the line in each of the last 6 battles. Interestingly, points have generally been hard to come by in this series with only 1 of the last 24 meetings between them producing more than 50 total match points.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:<\/em>
\nThe Dragons have been excellent at avoiding consecutive defeats in the last year and last week was only the 3rd time in their last 12 that they lost following a loss. They have covered the line in 75% of games on the back of a defeat in the last year with the Under having a 75% strike rate in those games. The Dragons have been solid in this spot having posted a 3-0 record both straight up and at the line in their last 3 as a home favourite. History suggests that the Raiders are capable of backing last week\u2019s performance up as they have covered the line in 8 of their last 11 as a road underdog.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/em>
\nTime and time against this season, we have seen the Raiders produce heroic performances as the outsider. Not only are they coming off back-to-back wins over top 4 sides, but they held the Panthers and Roosters to 18 points and 12 points respectively. That commitment to defence is something we have not seen from the Dragons in recent weeks. They have allowed 82 points in their last two games alone and 26+ points in 7 of their last 10. If the Raiders can go close to that number, they will be winning this game.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Under 51.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Raiders 1-12, 41-50 Total Match Points, Savage Anytime Tryscorer ($18.51)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n

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Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
North Queensland Cowboys<\/div>\n
7:30pm, Saturday 7 September | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Under 47.5 points ($1.98)<\/div>\n
Bulldogs 6 – 44 Cowboys <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Bulldogs put themselves in a position to contest for a top 4 finish, but a loss last week coupled with a Cowboys victory over the Storm means that these two teams are playing for the right to host a finals game next week. The winner will secure 5th spot in the ladder and the loser will drop to 7th if the Sea Eagles get the better of the Sharks. Stephen Crichton returns after serving his one-game suspension, but the home side will be without the duo of Burton (concussion protocols) and Xerri (suspension). Just the one change for the Cowboys with Miklaele returning to the squad.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:<\/em>
\nThese two have traded blows in recent years and have played out some very tight matches. The H2H reads 5-4 in the Cowboys favour across the last 9 meetings, and they have alternated wins in the last five. The Bulldogs won a golden point thriller 15-14 in their only clash last season with the Cowboys claiming a narrow 20-18 win in their most recent encounter earlier this season. Five of the last seven have been decided by a margin of 8 or fewer points with the Under holding on in each of the last 4 between them. Notably, the Cowboys have covered the line in 7 of their last 8 as the away team in this series.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:<\/em>
\nDespite losing their first home game of the season last week, the Bulldogs 10-1 record at home remains the best in the NRL. They have posted an impressive 8-3 record at the line in those games and are 6-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 9 games following a loss. The Cowboys have shown that they can beat the best on the road and are seeking a 6th straight victory as the away team. They have won 3 of their last 4 as a road underdog which includes wins over the Roosters and Panthers. The Eagles put 34 points on the Bulldogs, and it was the first time in 9 games that they conceded more than 20 points. In comparison, the Cowboys have allowed 20+ points in 4 of their last 5.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/em>
\nFinals footy starts a week early for these two teams as securing a home final next week is pivotal for their chances. The Dogs have been tremendous at home this season (10-1) but have struggled on the road (4-8) and they would prefer to avoid the Sea Eagles next week after having just lost to them by a significant margin. They have built their success this season on defence and the priority will be to get that part of their game back on track after conceding 40+ points to the Sea Eagles. Similarly, the Cowboys are aware that defence is their weak point and that they will need to improve in that department if they are to be competitive in the finals. As has been the case throughout the season, we will be sticking with the Unders in a match involving the Bulldogs.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.98)
\nSame Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-12 Either Team By Less Than 12.5, Preston Anytime Tryscorer, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer ($9.38)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n

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Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n
9:35pm, Saturday 8 September | Penrith Park, Penrith<\/div>\n
Under 51.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n
Panthers 18 – 12 Titans<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Leading into Round 26 the Panthers were facing the prospect of playing on the road in Week 1 of the finals. A win over the Rabbitohs coupled with a shock Roosters defeat means they are back in control of their own destiny and will finish second if they win here. Meanwhile, the Titans have fallen apart in the last month and David Fifita has been left out of the side as he prepares for ankle surgery. Kini returns at fullback after being ruled out late last week with Klese Haas stepping into the starting side.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:
\n<\/em>The Panthers have won 5 in a row in this series and 12 of the last 14 clashes when installed as the betting favourite. They have successfully covered the start in the last three as the home teams and have won the last 5 overall between the two sides. Dyland Edwards has 4 tries in his last 4 against the Titans while Liam Martin has crossed for a try in 2 of his last 3 appearances in this series. The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 hosted by the Panthers and that is largely due to the Titans have barely contributed to the total.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:
\n<\/em>The performances from the Titans in the last month suggests that they have had one eye on the holidays. They have lost their last 4 by an average of 27ppg and it is out wide where they have struggled the most. Sharpe had a hat-trick for the Knights last week and Ponga added a further two tries. The Under is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 away games – a stretch where they have added only 14.8ppg to the total. The Panthers are difficult to break down at the best of times and the absence of Fifita leaves them without one of their best attacking weapons.<\/p>\n

Prediction:
\n<\/em>Ivan Cleary and the Panthers will have two things on the list of priorities for this match. Top of the list is to win the match, collect the two points and secure second spot on the ladder. The next is health and getting their key personnel to get through unscathed. Don\u2019t be surprised if there are early showers for one or two of their stars and we are unlikely to see them push to score a barrage of points in the closing 20 minutes. Expect the Panthers to put the hammer down early and build a big lead before simplifying their footy in the closing stages and cruising to the finish line.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Under 51.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: 1st Half Panthers -9.5, Liam Martin Anytime Tryscorer, Titans Under 15.5 points ($8.25)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Panthers v Titans<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Cronulla Sharks<\/div>\n
4:00pm, Sunday 8 September | 4 Pines Park, Sydney<\/div>\n
Sea Eagles WIN ($1.78)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Barring a 70+ swing in points differential, the Sharks will finish no worse than 4th on the NRL ladder regardless of the result here. Meanwhile, the equation for the Sea Eagles is simple – a win will see them finish 6th and host a finals game next week while a loss will see them away to the winner of the Bulldogs\/Cowboys clash. Tom Trbojevic has been put on ice for the finals after sustaining a minor shoulder injury and will be replaced by Koula while Jason Saab is also out (ankle). Good news for the Sharks with Mulitalo and Ramien back on deck with Hynes also reverting to his regular halfback role.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:
\n<\/em>The Eagles hold a slight 6-4 edge in the last 10 meetings, but it is the Sharks who have won 3 of the last 4. Interestingly, the away team has won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Sharks going 3-0 both straight up and at the line in the last three as the away side. That said, the Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 8 as a home favourite while lines up nicely with their 9-2 record at home so far this season. Garrick has scored a try in each of his last two against the Shark with Koula\u2019s return a timely one as he had a double against the Sharks in the most recent clash.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:
\n<\/em>It has been a case of no place like home for the Eagles in 2024. They have won their last 5 home games and have covered the line in 9 of their last 11 as the host. The Shark were embarrassingly run down by the Warriors last week but should not be taken lightly as they have done some serious damage on the road. They have won 7 of their last 11 away games and have covered the line in 5 of their last 6 overall when installed as the underdog. The Over has hit in 4 of the Eagles last 5 leading into this match and there are notable tryscorers from both ends. Iro has scored a try in 5 of his last 6, Mulitalo has one or more tries in his last three and Lehi Hopoate has 1+ tries in 6 straight games.<\/p>\n

Prediction:
\n<\/em>The absence of Tom Trbojevic is a significant one as he has been one of the most dominant players in the NRL over the last two months. Nevertheless, it is difficult to place any trust in the Sharks and Nicho Hynes in particular who has had severe struggles throughout the year. Brookvale has been a fortress for the Eagles this season and last week we saw their forward pack stand tall in a big way. If Paseka, Olakau\u2019atu Brown and Lodge can replicate their performance against the Bulldogs, the Eagles will be claiming the points and hosting a finals game next week.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Sea Eagles WIN ($1.78)
\nSame Game Multi: Eagles 13+, Over 50.5 points, Lehi Hopoate Anytime Tryscorer ($7.14)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Sea Eagles v Sharks<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Newcastle Knights<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Dolphins<\/div>\n
6:05pm, Sunday 8 September | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle<\/div>\n
Over 49.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

You could not have scripted it any better as the final game of the regular season is also the battle for 8th spot and a place in the finals series starting next week. The Dolphins stunned the Broncos 40-6 to keep their hopes alive while the Knights did their bit by accounting for the Titans 36-14. Veteran Tyson Frizell returns for the home side and there could be a further chance with Pearce-Paul listed among the extended reserves. There is also good news for the visitors with Jesse Bromwich and Nikorima available. Wayne Bennett will continue with Averillo alongside O\u2019Sullivan in the halves with Katoa dropped to the reserves.<\/p>\n

Head To Head:<\/em>
\nThe Dolphins won the inaugural meeting 36-20 but the Knights have managed to win two very close matches in the battles that followed. They were 30-28 victors in an epic game at Optus Stadium in Round 23 last season and 18-14 winners at Suncorp Stadium in Round 8. The away team is a perfect 3-0 in this series with Isaako the main man having scored 6 tries in the 3 games they have played.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter:<\/em>
\nFor the second straight year, the Knights are looking to claim a spot in the finals on the back of a late season surge. They have won 9 of their last 12 games as the betting elect and have been successful at the line in their last 5 games leading into this contest. The Dolphins were brilliant last week but have won only 4 of their last 7 following a win and have lost their last four away games. They have been held to 10 or fewer points in 3 of their last 4 away games and must find a way to contain the reigning Dally M medal winner. Ponga has been in everything since returning from injury in Round 18 and can break this contest wide open on his own.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/em>
\nWould normally lean towards a low scoring contest with so much on the line but Wayne Bennett had other ideas last week. He made a handful of positional changes to break the game wide open and did exactly that. Herbie Farnworth was spectacular against the Broncos and both sides have an incredible amount of speed and talent out wide – Ponga, Best, Gagai, Marzhew, Tabuai-Fidow, Farnworth, Isaako and Bostock. The Dolphins will look to spread the ball early and a perfect afternoon for footy will produce a high scoring contest.<\/p>\n

Tips:<\/em>
\nBest Bet: Over 49.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Sharpe Anytime Tryscorer, Ponga Anytime Tryscorer, Farnworth Anytime Tryscorer, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer ($24.61)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Knights v Dolphins<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":4443,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-4493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"07\/09\/2024","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nNRL Tips & Preview | Round 27 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2024\/09\/nrl-tips-preview-round-27\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 27 - 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