{"id":3720,"date":"2024-08-17T07:08:35","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T19:08:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=3720"},"modified":"2024-08-18T08:01:37","modified_gmt":"2024-08-17T20:01:37","slug":"the-rugby-championship-tips-preview-round-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2024\/08\/the-rugby-championship-tips-preview-round-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Rugby Championship Tips & Preview | Round 2"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
New Zealand<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Argentina<\/div>\n
Eden Park, Auckland | Saturday, 7:05pm<\/div>\n
New Zealand -13.5 ($1.87)<\/div>\n
New Zealand 42 – 10 Argentina<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

History<\/em>
\nThe All Blacks have won 34 of 38 Test matches against Argentina. That record suggests dominance over the South Americans, and that was certainly the case in the first 35 years of games, going undefeated against Los Pumas, but the tide has turned since 2020. Argentina recorded their first-ever victory over New Zealand in 2020 and have followed that up with a win in 2022 and last week in their 38-30 triumph in Wellington. Only one Test match between these nations has been played at Eden Park, resulting in a 33-10 victory for the All Blacks at the 2011 Rugby World Cup.<\/p>\n

Form<\/em>
\nThe All Blacks suffered their first defeat of the season \u2014 and of the Scott Robertson era \u2014 last week, falling to Argentina 30-38. It was an inefficient performance from the Kiwis, which has become a bit of a trend over the last few years, missing that once-trademark ruthlessness and punch on attack. Defence was the major concern, however, conceding some costly line breaks and penalties on that side of the ball, opening the game up for the visitors who made them pay. Prior to that defeat, the All Blacks had recorded a pair of wins over England and one win against Fiji.<\/p>\n

Argentina will be on cloud nine after recording just their second-ever win over the All Blacks in New Zealand. Their forwards took it to the ABs\u2019 pack, with their physicality, especially that of Pablo Matera and Ignacio Ruiz, while Santiago Carreras had a fantastic game at first five-eighth and Matias Moroni made the NZ defence pay on multiple occasions. The way Los Pumas controlled the last 10 minutes of play was also impressive, helping earn them a historic win at the Cake Tin. That win followed a demolition of Uruguay and a 1-1 series against France in July.<\/p>\n

Teams<\/em>
\nNew Zealand: 1 Tamaiti Williams, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Tupou Vaa\u2019i, 5 Sam Darry, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 7 Dalton Papali\u2019i, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 9 TJ Perenara, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Will Jordan, 15 Beauden Barrett. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu\u2019ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Mark Tele\u2019a.<\/p>\n

Argentina: 1 Thomas Gallo, 2 Julian Montoya, 3 Lucio Sordoni, 4 Marcos Kremer, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 6 Pablo Matera, 7 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 10 Santiago Races, 11 Matthew Races, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 13 Lucio Cinti, 14 Matthias Moroni, 15 Juan Cruz Mall\u00eda. Reserves: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Joel Sclavi, 19 Franco Molina, 20 Tom\u00e1s Lavanini, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Thomas Albornoz, 23 Bautista Delguy.<\/p>\n

Scott Robertson has made four changes to his starting XV, but perhaps the most high profile inclusion comes on the bench, with the return of Sam Cane. In the starters, Tamaiti Williams joins the front row, while Rieko Ioane, Caleb Clarke and Will Jordan make up the new faces in the back line.<\/p>\n

Skipper Julian Montoya is back for Los Pumas, while Lucio Sordoni also joins this exciting front row. Joaquin Oviedo also joins the pack, forcing Marcos Kremer to the second row, while the electric Bautista Delguy comes into the squad and is sure to add some flair off the bench.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/em><\/p>\n

    \n
  • New Zealand are 1-4 ATS in their last five games<\/li>\n
  • Argentina have covered four of their last five games<\/li>\n
  • New Zealand have won 16 of 18 games against Argentina at home, by an average scoreline of 45-15<\/li>\n
  • New Zealand won the only prior game between these two nations played at Eden Park, prevailing 33-10 in 2011<\/li>\n
  • The under is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    The Verdict<\/em>
    \nAfter being shocked last week, expect the All Blacks to bounce back strong. Not only will they be wanting to exact revenge, they will also be desperate to maintain their unbeaten run at Eden Park, and with more punch named in the back line this week, they should have the ingredients to do so. The tight five is still a slight concern, but a strong bench that features the likes of Sam Cane and Mark Tele\u2019a will ensure the ABs finish strongly. The return of Julian Montoya cannot be understated for Argentina, but this All Blacks team will be fired up. Los Pumas didn\u2019t get close to a win in Eden Park in 2011, and I don\u2019t expect them to get all that close in 2024.<\/p>\n

    The Prediction<\/em>
    \nNew Zealand by 19<\/p>\n

    Tips<\/em>
    \nBest: New Zealand -13.5 ($1.87)
    \nValue: New Zealand 11-20 ($3.50)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n

    \n
    \n
    \n \n
    \n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
    \n
    Australia<\/div>\n
    vs<\/div>\n
    South Africa<\/div>\n
    Optus Stadium, Perth | Saturday, 9:45pm<\/div>\n
    South Africa -12.5 ($1.90)<\/div>\n
    Australia 12 – 30 South Africa<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
    \n

    History<\/em>
    \nAfter 94 matches between Australia and South Africa, it\u2019s the Boks who sit on top. Last weekend\u2019s 33-7 demolition of the Wallabies, the South Africans own an 11-win advantage over the Australians. The Springboks have won 51, the Wallabies 40 and there have been three draws. This will be the first-ever clash between the two at Optus Stadium, and in games held in Perth more broadly, the Wallabies own a very narrow 4-3-2 (W-L-D) advantage.<\/p>\n

    Form<\/em>
    \nAustralia were simply outclassed in the Rugby Championship season-opener. Unable to cause damage on attack and regularly becoming undone on defence, it was an ugly start to the Wallabies\u2019 TRC campaign and really brought them back down to Earth, after three successive wins under Joe Schmidt. Harry Wilson does what he always does, running hard with ball in hand, and Carlo Tizzano was busy defensively in a rare Test start, but it\u2019s clear that the Wallabies were out of their depth after two wins against a sub-par Wales team and a victory over Georgia.<\/p>\n

    South Africa made a statement in the 33-7 win, reaffirming their status as title favourites in the Rugby Championship. The defending world champions won with ease and could well have pushed the margin out to 40+ with a bit more polish on their entries into the 22. But that\u2019s being picky \u2014 the forwards dominated in almost every aspect of the game, barring the occasional error at scrum time, and the usual suspects, such as Pieter-Steph du Toit, Eben Etzebeth and Kurt-Lee Arendse all proved to be a handful. Following a 1-1 series tie with Ireland and a breezy win over Portugal, it\u2019s fair to say that this South Africa team is in fine form.<\/p>\n

    Teams<\/em>
    \nAustralia: 1 Angus Bell, 2 Josh Nasser, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 4 Angus Blyth, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 6 Rob Valetini, 7 Carlo Tizzano, 8 Harry Wilson, 9 Nic White, 10 Noah Lolesio, 11 Marika Koroibete, 12 Hunter Paisami, 13 Len Ikitau, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 15 Tom Wright. Reserves: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 James Slipper, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Tom Hooper, 20 Seru Uru, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Max Jorgensen.<\/p>\n

    South Africa: 1 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 3 Thomas du Toit, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Marco van Staden, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Elrigh Louw, 9 Morne van den Berg, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 12 Lukhanyo Am, 13 Jesse Kriel, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 15 Aphelele Fassi. Reserves: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Grant Williams, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Handr\u00e9 Pollard.<\/p>\n

    Joe Schmidt hasn\u2019t been shy with his changes after last week\u2019s defeat, bringing in a slew of fresh faces. Marika Koroibete is the big name to be included, replacing the injured Filipo Daugunu, and he\u2019s joined by Angus Bell, Josh Nasser, Angus Bluth and Nic White in the starting XV. On the bench, Seru Uru and Max Jorgensen are in line to make their Wallabies debuts<\/p>\n

    Rassie Erasmus has made wholesale changes to his 23 for the Springboks\u2019 second game of TRC. Halfback Morne van den Berg and lock Ruan Nortje will both have their first Test starts on Saturday, while fellow lock Salmaan Moerat takes over the captaincy from Siya Kolisi, who\u2019s being rested. All in all, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Elrigh Louw and Pieter-Steph du Toit are the only starters who remain from last week\u2019s game, but this Springboks team remains very strong.<\/p>\n

    Stats That Matter<\/em><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Australia have won four of their last six home games against South Africa<\/li>\n
    • Australia have failed to cover the spread in their last nine games<\/li>\n
    • South Africa have covered four of their last five games away from home<\/li>\n
    • South Africa have won their last three games against Australia by an average of 24.3 points<\/li>\n
    • The last nine games between these teams have seen an average of just 44.2 points per game<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      The Verdict<\/em>
      \nRassie Erasmus has confidently put forward 10 personnel changes to his starting XV from last week, rolling out what can only be described as a second-string squad in Perth. Yet, somehow, it\u2019s still a very, very good team. That spells trouble for the Wallabies, who had no answer for the South Africans last week, and it\u2019s hard to see how they will change that in Round 2. The accuracy and physicality of the Boks was overwhelming last Saturday and with an equally as imposing pack lining up in Perth, that\u2019s where the dominance will continue. The youth of the Wallabies \u2014 and the talent gap that they find themselves with \u2014 will resign them to another heavy defeat.<\/p>\n

      The Prediction<\/em>
      \nSouth Africa by 18<\/p>\n

      Tips<\/em>
      \nBest: South Africa -12.5 ($1.90)
      \nValue: South Africa 11-20 ($3.30)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":2908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[583,599],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-3720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-union","tag-rugby-union-tips","tag-the-all-blacks-new-zealand"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"17\/08\/2024","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nThe Rugby Championship Tips & Preview | Round 2 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2024\/08\/the-rugby-championship-tips-preview-round-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Rugby Championship Tips & Preview | Round 2 - 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