{"id":31503,"date":"2026-08-23T09:00:35","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T21:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=31503"},"modified":"2026-08-23T09:43:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T21:43:40","slug":"nrl-refs-stats-that-matter-round-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/08\/nrl-refs-stats-that-matter-round-25\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 24.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#melbourne-storm\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">9:50pm Thursday | AAMI Park, Melbourne<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Melbourne +8.5 @ $1.78 &#038; Under 42.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#penrith-panthers\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Grant Atkins<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Storm are 17-13 with a 16-14 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Panthers are 13-6 with an 11-8 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Home teams cover at 58%<\/li>\n<li>Interstate favourites cover at 39%<\/li>\n<li>The under is 17-2 in Penrith games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Grant Atkins is a referee who came through the ranks at Penrith but the Panthers are not particularly strong under his whistle with interstate favourites particularly poor. The under has an insane record when Penrith play. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Melbourne +8.5 @ $1.78 &amp; Under 42.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/melbourne-storm-vs-penrith-panthers\/260dcc7a-2b7f-43c4-a926-ff1570a3a3a3\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"260dcc7a-2b7f-43c4-a926-ff1570a3a3a3\" data-tr-event-id=\"260dcc7a-2b7f-43c4-a926-ff1570a3a3a3\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#canberra-raiders\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">8:00pm Friday | GIO Stadium, Canberra<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#brisbane-broncos\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Adam Gee<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Raiders are 10-12 with a 10-12 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Raiders have failed to cover their last four<\/li>\n<li>The Broncos are 7-16 with a 9-14 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under is 15-6 in 2026<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 58.1% when there is a double digit favourite<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Adam Gee is the leading under official this year and the under has a very strong record when there is a big favourite in play. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/canberra-raiders-vs-brisbane-broncos\/967d727b-d60f-494c-8581-e2a34f4451fc\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"967d727b-d60f-494c-8581-e2a34f4451fc\" data-tr-event-id=\"967d727b-d60f-494c-8581-e2a34f4451fc\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#dolphins\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Dolphins<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Parramatta Eels<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">10:00pm Friday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#parramatta-eels\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Gerard Sutton<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Dolphins are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Eels are 5-12 with a 7-10 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Favourites of 4 or more cover at 56%<\/li>\n<li>The under is on a 13-3 run in Sutton games<\/li>\n<li>The over is 9-4 in Dolphins games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>The under has had an extraordinary run of it lately under Gerard Sutton so needs to be played despite the strong over record of the Dolphins under his whistle. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/dolphins-vs-parramatta-eels\/5f041aa7-76a6-4a9f-9c24-914821857986\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"5f041aa7-76a6-4a9f-9c24-914821857986\" data-tr-event-id=\"5f041aa7-76a6-4a9f-9c24-914821857986\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#newcastle-knights\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Newcastle Knights<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">5:00pm Saturday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Over 50.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#manly-seaeagles\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Wyatt Raymond<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Knights are 3-6 with a 4-5 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Sea Eagles are 2-3 with a 3-2 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Top 8 teams cover at 57%<\/li>\n<li>Day games go over at 60%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>There are no major angles with Wyatt Raymond though his day\/night splits are very traditional and make the over a small play. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Over 50.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/newcastle-knights-vs-manly-sea-eagles\/3d329a65-b325-40dd-958d-c33d89588674\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"3d329a65-b325-40dd-958d-c33d89588674\" data-tr-event-id=\"3d329a65-b325-40dd-958d-c33d89588674\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#south-sydney-rabbitohs\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">7:30pm Saturday | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Souths +4.5 @ $1.92<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#new-zealand-warriors\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Todd Smith<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Souths are 5-8 with a 7-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>New Zealand are 5-7 with a 4-8 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Interstate favourites cover at 41%<\/li>\n<li>Interstate favourites of 4 or more cover at 36%<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 55% in all Smith games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Interstate favourites have a terrible record under Todd Smith and the Warriors cover at just 33% so Souths have to be tried getting 4.5 points. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Souths +4.5 @ $1.92<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/south-sydney-rabbitohs-vs-new-zealand-warriors\/c4541c16-b425-493c-ba90-70eee11fd5e6\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"c4541c16-b425-493c-ba90-70eee11fd5e6\" data-tr-event-id=\"c4541c16-b425-493c-ba90-70eee11fd5e6\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#st-george-illawarra-dragons\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">St George Illawarra Dragons<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">9:35pm Saturday | Allianz Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">No Lean<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#canterbury-bulldog\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Liam Kennedy<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Dragons are 4-4 with a 5-3 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Bulldogs are 2-4 with a 3-3 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Faves of 6.5 or more cover at 55%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>There are no leans with Liam Kennedy in the middle with the whistleblower renowned as a ledger balancer. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>No Lean<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/st-george-illawarra-dragons-vs-canterbury-bulldogs\/cc6a7c18-c30c-45e2-9fb4-765f2cdd5eb9\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"cc6a7c18-c30c-45e2-9fb4-765f2cdd5eb9\" data-tr-event-id=\"cc6a7c18-c30c-45e2-9fb4-765f2cdd5eb9\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#gold-caost-titans\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Cronulla Sharks<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">4:00pm Sunday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 49.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#cronulla-sharks\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Peter Gough<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Titans are 7-8 with a 10-5 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Sharks are 7-2 with a 7-2 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under has hit in 14 straight Gough games<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 60% when there has been an interstate team<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>The run of unders with Peter Gough in the middle has been nothing short of extraordinary with even day games riding a five-game under streak. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Under 49.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/gold-coast-titans-vs-cronulla-sharks\/f692e484-6e92-42d9-8ea7-fc60fa9e9bbd\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"f692e484-6e92-42d9-8ea7-fc60fa9e9bbd\" data-tr-event-id=\"f692e484-6e92-42d9-8ea7-fc60fa9e9bbd\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#sydney-roosters\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Wests Tigers<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">6:05pm Sunday | Allianz Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Over 52.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#wests-tigers\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Ashley Klein<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Roosters are 15-14 with a 14-15 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Tigers are 2-3 with a 3-2 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Favourites cover at 55%<\/li>\n<li>The over is 5-1 when a 16+ favourite<\/li>\n<li>Day games go over at 56%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Ashley Klein is a big over ref when there is a sizable favourite and when games are played in the afternoon. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Over 52.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/sydney-roosters-vs-wests-tigers\/f522c454-95ca-4249-a52e-c8ad5c37d0fc\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"f522c454-95ca-4249-a52e-c8ad5c37d0fc\" data-tr-event-id=\"f522c454-95ca-4249-a52e-c8ad5c37d0fc\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"align wp-block-entain-sports-next-to-go\"><div data-league=\"NRL\" data-sport=\"rugby_league\" class=\"sport-next-to-go wp-block-entain-sport-next-to-go-block_99564eb249de6206e2b063080ed91bf0 sport-data\"><\/div><\/section>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-entain-hero-news\">\n<section class=\"entain-block news-block hero-news-block \">\n    <div class=\"hero-articles-grid\"><div class=\"grid-item\">      <div class=\"hero-item grid-item-0\">\n        <article class=\"hero-news-card hoverable audio post-960 post type-post status-publish format-audio has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest post_format-post-format-audio\">\n  <a class=\"article-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/10\/podcast-the-advantage-line\/\" arial-label=\"Read article: Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026\" data-tr-action=\"view article\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\" hero news card\" data-tr-label=\"Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026\" >\n    <div class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__audio\">\n              <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/TCN027W_TAB_AL-POD_EP34_16x9_Full-Podcast-Thumbnail-876x493.jpg\" alt=\"Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n        <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n          <span class=\"post-category\" style=\"--post-thumb-term-bg:#3d3e48;--post-thumb-term-color:var(--brand-term-light);\">Rugby League<\/span>          <h2 class=\"hero-title\">Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026<\/h2>          <div class=\"meta\">\n\t<time class=\"updated\" datetime=\"2026-10-07T03:51:19+00:00\">Yesterday<\/time><span class=\"author\"> &#149; TAB Staff<\/span>\n<\/div>        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <\/a>\n  <\/article>      <\/div><\/div><div class=\"grid-item\">      <div class=\"hero-item grid-item-1\">\n        <article class=\"hero-news-card hoverable  post-32877 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league\">\n  <a class=\"article-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/10\/from-the-couch-grand-final-edition\/\" arial-label=\"Read article: From The Couch: Grand Final Edition\" data-tr-action=\"view article\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\" hero news card\" data-tr-label=\"From The Couch: Grand Final Edition\" >\n    <div class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__\">\n              <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Roosters-NRL_1200x675-1-876x493.jpg\" alt=\"From The Couch: Grand Final Edition\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n        <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n          <span class=\"post-category\" style=\"--post-thumb-term-bg:#3d3e48;--post-thumb-term-color:var(--brand-term-light);\">Rugby League<\/span>          <h2 class=\"hero-title\">From The Couch: Grand Final Edition<\/h2>          <div class=\"meta\">\n\t<time class=\"updated\" datetime=\"2026-10-05T02:58:42+00:00\">5 Oct<\/time><span class=\"author\"> &#149; Nick Tedeschi<\/span>\n<\/div>        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <\/a>\n  <\/article>      <\/div>      <div class=\"hero-item grid-item-2\">\n        <article class=\"hero-news-card hoverable video post-32868 type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-rugby-league video_cat-special-interest\">\n  <a class=\"article-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/blake-ayshford-nrl-grand-finals-preview\/\" arial-label=\"Read article: Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview\" data-tr-action=\"view article\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\" hero news card\" data-tr-label=\"Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview\" >\n    <div class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__video\">\n              <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Artboard-1-876x493.jpg\" alt=\"Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n        <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n          <span class=\"post-category\" style=\"--post-thumb-term-bg:#3d3e48;--post-thumb-term-color:var(--brand-term-light);\">Special Interest<\/span>          <h2 class=\"hero-title\">Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview<\/h2>          <div class=\"meta\">\n\t<time class=\"updated\" datetime=\"2026-10-03T05:14:05+00:00\">3 Oct<\/time><span class=\"author\"> &#149; TAB Staff<\/span>\n<\/div>        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <\/a>\n  <\/article>      <\/div><\/div>  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-entain-vertical-videos\">\n  <section class=\"entain-block news-section-block vertical-videos-block scrollable-block\" data-section-heading=\"Latest Videos\">\n    <div class=\"entain-section-heading scrollable-block-header\">\n            <h2>Latest Videos<\/h2>\n            <div class=\"scroll-btns-wrapper\"> \n        <button type=\"button\" class=\"scroll-btn left\"><svg fill='currentColor' role='img' aria-label=\"Previous\"  version='1.1' xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' xmlns:xlink='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink' width='10' height='10'>\n        <use xlink:href='https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/global\/svg-misc-icon.svg?version=20260924a#arrow-left'><\/use>\n      <\/svg><span class=\"sr-only\">Scroll left<\/span><\/button>\n        <button type=\"button\" class=\"scroll-btn right\"><svg fill='currentColor' role='img' aria-label=\"Next\"  version='1.1' xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' xmlns:xlink='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink' width='10' height='10'>\n        <use xlink:href='https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/global\/svg-misc-icon.svg?version=20260924a#arrow-right'><\/use>\n      <\/svg><span class=\"sr-only\">Scroll right<\/span><\/button>\n      <\/div> \n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"vertical-videos-slide scroll-container\">\n      <div class=\"scrollable\">\n        <article class=\"vertical-video-card hoverable scroll-item post-32975 video type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-vertical-video\">\n  <div class=\"vertical-video-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/best-rlwc-moments-the-advantage-line-podcast\/\" aria-label=\"Watch video: Best RLWC Moments | The Advantage Line Podcast\"\n    data-tr-action=\"watch video\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-label=\"Best RLWC Moments | The Advantage Line Podcast\" data-tr-method=\"vertical video card\" >\n    <div tabindex=\"0\" class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__aspect-ratio-vertical thumbnail__video feature-video feature-video__lazyload\">\n      <div class=\"feature-video__lazyload-embed\">\n                  <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/TCN027W_TAB_AL-POD_EP34_9x16_Breakout-1-Thumbnail-5.29.54-PM-657x1168.jpg\" alt=\"Best RLWC Moments | The Advantage Line Podcast\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1233947139\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1233947139?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; 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Go Podcast\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1231526162\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1231526162?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe> -->\n            <\/div>\n          <\/template>\n              <\/div>\n      <!-- <span class=\"media-play-button\" ><\/span> -->\n    <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"vertical-video-card hoverable scroll-item post-32723 video type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-vertical-video\">\n  <div class=\"vertical-video-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/cam-smiths-2026-dally-m-team-of-the-year-short\/\" aria-label=\"Watch video: Cam Smith's 2026 Dally M Team Of The Year | Short\"\n    data-tr-action=\"watch video\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-label=\"Cam Smith's 2026 Dally M Team Of The Year | Short\" data-tr-method=\"vertical video card\" >\n    <div tabindex=\"0\" class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__aspect-ratio-vertical thumbnail__video feature-video feature-video__lazyload\">\n      <div class=\"feature-video__lazyload-embed\">\n                  <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/TAB-_-Cam-Smiths-2026-Dally-M-Team-Of-The-Year_465x822.jpg\" alt=\"Cam Smith's 2026 Dally M Team Of The Year | Short\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1230072295\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1230072295?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe> -->\n            <\/div>\n          <\/template>\n              <\/div>\n      <!-- <span class=\"media-play-button\" ><\/span> -->\n    <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"vertical-video-card hoverable scroll-item post-32717 video type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-vertical-video\">\n  <div class=\"vertical-video-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/stat-chat-the-advantage-line-podcast-3\/\" aria-label=\"Watch video: Stat Chat | The Advantage Line Podcast\"\n    data-tr-action=\"watch video\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-label=\"Stat Chat | The Advantage Line Podcast\" data-tr-method=\"vertical video card\" >\n    <div tabindex=\"0\" class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__aspect-ratio-vertical thumbnail__video feature-video feature-video__lazyload\">\n      <div class=\"feature-video__lazyload-embed\">\n                  <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/TAB-_-The-Advantage-Line-Podcast-_-Stat-Chat-23-September_465x822.jpg\" alt=\"Stat Chat | The Advantage Line Podcast\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1230069906\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1230069906?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe> -->\n            <\/div>\n          <\/template>\n              <\/div>\n      <!-- <span class=\"media-play-button\" ><\/span> -->\n    <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n<\/article>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 24. Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers 9:50pm Thursday | AAMI Park, Melbourne Melbourne +8.5 @ $1.78 &#038; Under 42.5 @ $1.90 Grant Atkins The Storm are 17-13 with a 16-14 cover record The Panthers are 13-6 with an 11-8 cover record Home teams cover at 58% Interstate favourites cover at 39% The under is 17-2 in Penrith games Grant Atkins is a referee who came through the ranks at Penrith but the Panthers are not particularly strong&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":27646,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[575],"hub_post_cat":[3],"class_list":["post-31503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips","tag-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"23\/08\/2026","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 25 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. 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