{"id":3121,"date":"2024-07-28T14:03:39","date_gmt":"2024-07-28T02:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=3121"},"modified":"2024-07-28T14:03:40","modified_gmt":"2024-07-28T02:03:40","slug":"ufc-304-preview-tips-sunday-28-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2024\/07\/ufc-304-preview-tips-sunday-28-july\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 304 Preview & Tips | Sunday 28 July"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite running into the middle of the night for local fans, the Co-op Live in Manchester, England will be packed to the brim for UFC 304. Unfinished business is highlighted in both the main and co-main event as Leon Edwards rematches Belal Muhammad and Tom Aspinall squares off again with Curtis Blaydes.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Leon Edwards $1.38 v Belal Muhammad $3.10<\/div>\n
Leon Edwards By KO\/TKO @ $3.75<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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A rematch over three years in the making, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad are both eager to close out their rivalry this weekend. Their first meeting ended in a No Contest due to a terrible eye poke but the successful trajectories of both men assured they would meet again; this time, they battle for the highest stakes in the division.<\/p>\n

Edwards, the favorite and champion, has settled into his place after an initially shocking grasp of the title nearly two years ago. Now with two defenses to his name, Edwards has found confidence as the new king of welterweight. The fact those defenses came against vaunted wrestlers in Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington has done wonders to bolster that optimism.<\/p>\n

Edwards has established himself as one of the best strikers in the division and his intelligent, highly technical execution has made him a deadly threat to contest with on the feet. As is the natural course for any great striker, takedown defense and rounding out his wrestling has been a long but beneficial journey. Edwards is a refined and prominent example of the \u201csprawl and brawl\u201d archetype, but at this point his wrestling has become a surprisingly relevant tool both defensively and otherwise.<\/p>\n

On the other end of the spectrum, Belal Muhammad has had to climb his way up the ranks developing consistency in his aggressive style that largely revolves around wrestling. A grinder with a deep gas tank, Muhammad has won his last nine in a row and has waited patiently for his opportunity at the title. With dominant wins over Sean Brady and Gilbert Burns, he could no longer be denied.<\/p>\n

The 36-year-old is a pugnacious fighter who often maintains a heavy work rate, but his technical improvements have been significant in recent years. At his peak as an increasingly well-rounded fighter, Muhammad has never been better positioned for a run at the title but once again stands across from a miserable stylistic match-up in Leon Edwards. Not only a southpaw \u2013 a stance Muhammad has historically struggled intensely with \u2013 Edwards has all the tools necessary to dictate the orientation and pace of the fight.<\/p>\n

The superior technician in practically every aspect, Edwards should be able to dispel the pressure of Muhammad and find success poking at range and countering at closer distances. Both men have developed at notable paces since their first meeting but it is Edwards who has seemingly figured out how to handle slow-footed wrestlers and this weekend should be no different. Historically, Edwards has struggled to find finishes but he will be taking on a foe who isn\u2019t shy to press the action. Granted opportunities to counter an aggressive but defensively liable foe, Edwards may be able to snipe his way to a huge win over an old rival.<\/p>\n

Same Game Multi:<\/em> Edwards By KO\/TKO + Edwards 60+ Strikes Landed + Edwards 1+ Total Takedowns<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Edwards v Muhammad<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Tom Aspinall $1.26 v Curtis Blaydes $3.90<\/div>\n
Tom Aspinall By KO\/TKO @ $1.80<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Almost two years to the day, Tom Aspinall suffered the biggest and most dramatic loss of his career when his knee blew out in a mere 15 seconds. The injury itself appeared catastrophic at the time but a quick recovery and newfound dedication to the sport has made the situation a blessing in disguise.<\/p>\n

Now, Aspinall will carry the interim heavyweight belt into the cage when he seeks to close the Blaydes chapter of his story. With two wins under his belt since the injury, Aspinall has looked sharp and better-than-ever. A well-rounded fighter who has grown in prominence for his smooth footwork and heavy hands, Aspinall is a fairly sharp technician inside the cage. With particularly refined timing in his striking, Aspinall has managed to be the same slick, agile threat he was on the regional circuit against elites. That said, this weekend poses a match-up that will be testing his wrestling more than anything.<\/p>\n

An American wrestler who has made a name for himself as one of the best takedown artists in the division, Curtis Blaydes is riding a huge win over Jailton Almeida into this contest. Eight years into his UFC stint, Blaydes is a deceptively experienced and intelligent fighter. Though known for his wrestling and occasionally brutal top game, Blaydes has made monumental strides in his striking and has better offensive timing and success than many give credit for. That said, he stands to lose in a striking contest with the quicker, heavier-handed Aspinall. Going back to what he does best will be Blaydes\u2019 best chance at victory and I expect him to pursue that game plan. Few have truly tested the takedown defense of Aspinall and checking for any gaps will be a quick priority for Blaydes.<\/p>\n

A fairly binary contest, the trajectory of the bout may be set early if Blaydes gets a chance to shoot. If he succeeds early, he has proven to be a devastating presence from top position. If shoved off and forced into a striking match, Blaydes has little hope to go home with the interim belt.<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Aspinall v Blaydes<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Bobby Green $1.87 v Paddy Pimblett $1.94<\/div>\n
Bobby Green Head to Head @ $1.87<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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The career of Bobby \u201cKing\u201d Green has been a tumultuous one to say the least but recent years have birthed a wild resurgence for him. A longtime veteran with experience in a multitude of organizations, Green is a slick, exciting striker with a loose, hands-down style rarely seen in MMA.<\/p>\n

It could take this whole page to talk about Green\u2019s roller coaster of a career but ultimately he has shaken out to be 3-1 in his last four. At 37-years-old, Green isn\u2019t at his absolute quickest defensively but has adjusted accordingly in his offensive output to make up for it. Durable and with no shortage of heart, Green specifically called out Paddy Pimblett and is looking to build his win streak on the prospect\u2019s back.<\/p>\n

An outspoken and popular figure in the organization, Pimblett returned to the cage after an ankle injury and a year out to outpoint Tony Ferguson. Unfortunately, the win was lackadaisical at best and did little to raise the stock of \u201cThe Baddy\u201d. Grinding efforts leading to success are nothing new for Pimblett though, as he has found a home as a relative jack-of-all-trades with a grappling specialty.<\/p>\n

Pimblett is not a standout wrestler nor does he impress on the feet but there is no questioning his ability in pure grappling. A well-suited MMA grappler who does solid work from top or bottom, Pimblett will be best served to force Bobby Green into a grappling contest sooner rather than later. At a stark disadvantage on the feet and having been rocked, dropped, and beaten out on the feet in the past, Pimblett will be running on borrowed time to get this fight to the floor. Pimblett is now 5-0 in the UFC but this is the first time he faces a truly deadly match-up. While Pimblett will have the edge on the ground, getting it there \u2013 particularly in an advantageous position \u2013 is a tall task of itself. Without much to offer in the striking department, it\u2019s likely Pimblett attempts to grind this fight to a halt with clinch tie-ups and low takedown attempts. That said, Green is no stranger to wrestling or grappling in his own right and he tends to be chronically underrated in those areas.<\/p>\n

Without the name recognition and fortuitous nature of Paddy Pimblett, there\u2019s an argument to be made that the betting lines would be wider in favor of Bobby Green. Having asked for Pimblett and carrying serious advantages into the cage, the time seems right for Green to seize another huge win in what is becoming an insane late-stage run.<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Green v Pimblett<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Christian Leroy Duncan $1.68 v Gregory Rodrigues $2.20<\/div>\n
Christian Leroy Duncan By Points @ $5.75<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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A slight betting favorite, Christian Leroy Duncan is looking to extend a two-fight win streak that saw him utterly dominate Denis Tiuliulin and Claudio Ribeiro. 3-1 in the UFC overall, Duncan has begun to find a home for a grueling mix of sharp striking and oppressive clinch work.<\/p>\n

Duncan already brings technically sound Muay Thai to the cage but his newfound dedication towards being particularly physically imposing has led to cleaner and more decisive success. After original opponent Robert Bryczek withdrew, the man known as \u201cRobocop\u201d stepped in.<\/p>\n

A fan favorite regarded highly for his offensive prowess, Gregory Rodrigues is also riding a dominant two-fight win streak into this bout. Despite only three years of experience in the UFC, Rodrigues has undergone something of a stylistic evolution. A credentialed grappler, Rodrigues minted the majority of his career as a heavy-handed, aggressive, but defensively liable brawler. His most recent losses shifted his intentions and though Rodrigues still brings that savagery to his striking exchanges, he better mixes up his wrestling to offer a more well-rounded picture.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, if this bout were contested entirely on the feet, Christian Leroy Duncan would presumably run away with the fight on virtue of his superior technique, footwork, and savvy. However, Rodrigues has shown a recent willingness to drag fights to the mat if it behooves him and it certainly will this weekend. No win over Rodrigues is easily taken and UFC 304 will be no different. Though I favor the intelligent and well-rounded work of Duncan, expect his anxiety to spike a few times as he takes a hard-fought win over \u201cRobocop\u201d.<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Duncan v Rodrigues<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Arnold Allen $1.44 v Giga Chikadze $2.85<\/div>\n
Arnold Allen By Points @ $2.00<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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The betting favorite this weekend, Arnold Allen is approaching a decade in the UFC and entering this weekend on the first losing streak of his career. Coming up short against Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev is no shame but a win is desperately needed for the England native if he hopes to get back on track for contention.<\/p>\n

Striking makes up the foundation of Allen\u2019s style but with extensive experience under his belt, Allen has developed into a well-rounded fighter capable of competing everywhere. Make no mistake, striking is where he prefers to get his work done, but Allen has shown competent grappling and wrestling in the past even if he doesn\u2019t often lean on it. At only 30-years-old, Allen has yet to reach his ceiling and showed indications of world class ability in his recent losses but will need to get past a dangerous striker in Giga Chikadze.<\/p>\n

A former kickboxer, Chikadze is a decorated and technically sharp striker that will relish the opportunity to strike with Arnold Allen for three rounds. His most recent appearance was last year in a decision win over Alex Caceres \u2013 a victory that served well as a rebound after being brutalized by Calvin Kattar. However, Chikadze\u2019s pairing at UFC 304 is more akin to that Kattar match-up than the Caceres one. Chikadze has shown exceptional striking ability when allowed to keep things at his preferred range and pace where he can pick people apart with kicks. When pressured or forced into elongated exchanges, Chikadze\u2019s hull begins to crack. Outside of his prime as a fighter, Chikadze is moving less and getting hit more.<\/p>\n

A mere three-round fight opens the main card of UFC 304; Allen should be able to carry a heavy pace and do what is necessary to break down and outpoint Chikadze.<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: Allen v Chikadze<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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All Tips<\/div>\n
UFC 304<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
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Edwards v Muhammad:<\/em> Leon Edwards By KO\/TKO @ $3.75
\nAspinall v Blaydes:<\/em> Tom Aspinall By KO\/TKO @ $1.80
\nGreen v Pimblett:<\/em> Bobby Green Head to Head @ $1.87
\nDuncan v Rodrigues:<\/em> Christian Leroy Duncan By Points @ $5.75
\nAllen v Chikadze:<\/em> Arnold Allen By Points @ $2.00
\nWood v Pineda:<\/em> Nathaniel Wood By Points @ $3.50
\nMcCann v Brasil:<\/em> Molly McCann By KO\/TKO Or Submission @ $2.55
\nLoughran v Hadley:<\/em> Caolan Loughran By Points @ $2.10
\nBukauskas v Prachnio:<\/em> Marcin Prachnio Head to Head @ $2.35
\nElliott v Parsons:<\/em> Oban Elliott By Points @ $.00
\nMokaev v Kape:<\/em> Muhammad Mokaev By Points @ $2.30
\nPatterson v Crosbie:<\/em> Sam Patterson By Submission
\nParkin v Brzeski:<\/em> Mick Parkin By Points
\nBannon v Ardelean:<\/em> Shauna Bannon Head to Head @ $1.57<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now: UFC 304<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":338,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[272],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-3121","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ufc","tag-ufc"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"28\/07\/2024","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nUFC 304 Preview & Tips | Sunday 28 July - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2024\/07\/ufc-304-preview-tips-sunday-28-july\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC 304 Preview & Tips | Sunday 28 July - 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