{"id":30915,"date":"2026-07-24T23:10:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T11:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=30915"},"modified":"2026-07-24T23:36:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T11:36:59","slug":"nrl-refs-stats-that-matter-round-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/07\/nrl-refs-stats-that-matter-round-21\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 21"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 21.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#parramatta-eels\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Parramatta Eels<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">9:50pm, Thursday 23 July | CommBank Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Penrith -15.5 @ $1.85 &#038; Under 44.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#penrith-panthers\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Gerard Sutton<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Parramatta are 5-11 with a 6-10 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Penrith are 19-7 with a 16-10 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55%<\/li>\n<li>The under is on a 10-2 run in Sutton games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Penrith and Parramatta both operate at very different levels under Gerard Sutton while the under run is so hot that it can be bet with confidence in Sutton games. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Penrith -15.5 @ $1.85 &amp; Under 44.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/parramatta-eels-vs-penrith-panthers\/4a294cd6-62ec-4d2c-9ecf-7378261c4906\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"4a294cd6-62ec-4d2c-9ecf-7378261c4906\" data-tr-event-id=\"4a294cd6-62ec-4d2c-9ecf-7378261c4906\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#newcastle-knights\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Newcastle Knights<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">8:00pm, Friday 24 July | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 45.5 @ $1.98<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#sydney-roosters\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Wyatt Raymond<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Newcastle are 3-5 with a 3-5 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Roosters are 1-2 with a 1-2 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 54.5% when there is a home underdog<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 62.5% when two Top 8 teams meet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>The under is in a good spot this week with it hitting with a home underdog and when two top teams meet with Wyatt Raymond in the middle. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Under 45.5 @ $1.98<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/newcastle-knights-vs-sydney-roosters\/170890f8-a544-47fb-94bb-e3407f0d2e33\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"170890f8-a544-47fb-94bb-e3407f0d2e33\" data-tr-event-id=\"170890f8-a544-47fb-94bb-e3407f0d2e33\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#south-sydney-rabbitohs\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">10:00pm, Friday 24 July | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Souths +1.5 @ $1.83<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#melbourne-storm\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Ashley Klein<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Souths are 10-8 with a 10-8 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Melbourne are 16-11 with a 12-15 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Top 8 teams against teams outside Top 8 cover 61%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Ashley Klein is straight down the middle with his numbers but Top 8 teams playing teams outside the Top 8 do tend to cover at a higher clip than most officials. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Souths +1.5 @ $1.83<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/south-sydney-rabbitohs-vs-melbourne-storm\/7cdf092b-d970-4a90-bf9d-720dd5412bf5\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"7cdf092b-d970-4a90-bf9d-720dd5412bf5\" data-tr-event-id=\"7cdf092b-d970-4a90-bf9d-720dd5412bf5\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#canberra-raiders\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Wests Tigers<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">5:00pm, Saturday 25 July | GIO Stadium, Canberra<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#wests-tigers\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Jarrod Cole<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Canberra are 1-0 with a 1-0 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Wests Tigers are 0-1 with a 0-1 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under is 14-2 in Cole\u2019s 16 games<\/li>\n<li>The under is 7-0 when a team is favoured by 8 or more points<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Jarrod Cole has been an utterly unstoppable under force since making it to the NRL with the under 14-2 in his first 16 games in the big league. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/canberra-raiders-vs-wests-tigers\/1fe97d55-3981-4cf7-90ba-dae79424a3a3\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"1fe97d55-3981-4cf7-90ba-dae79424a3a3\" data-tr-event-id=\"1fe97d55-3981-4cf7-90ba-dae79424a3a3\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#canterbury-bulldog\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">7:30pm, Saturday 25 July | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 42.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#new-zealand-warriors\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Adam Gee<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Canterbury are 8-6 with a 7-7 cover record<\/li>\n<li>New Zealand are 6-9 with a 9-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under is 13-5 in 2026<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 61% when an interstate favourite of 4 or more<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>The under has been in sublime form under Gee\u2019s whistle while this is a good spot for the under with an interstate favourite of at least a try. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Under 42.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/canterbury-bulldogs-vs-new-zealand-warriors\/f24d7ec7-d503-471b-af8a-8f512e186569\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"f24d7ec7-d503-471b-af8a-8f512e186569\" data-tr-event-id=\"f24d7ec7-d503-471b-af8a-8f512e186569\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#north-qld-cowboys\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">North Queensland Cowboys<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">9:35pm, Saturday 25 July | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">No Lean<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#brisbane-broncos\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Tyson Brough<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Favourites are 1-0 against the spread in Brough games<\/li>\n<li>The under is 1-0 in Brough games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Tyson Brough made his NRL debut last week and gave just five penalties and five set restarts to go with two sin bins in a strong first game. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>No Lean<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/north-queensland-cowboys-vs-brisbane-broncos\/d9752ba5-12b5-49d3-ac5a-c7863ffe220b\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"d9752ba5-12b5-49d3-ac5a-c7863ffe220b\" data-tr-event-id=\"d9752ba5-12b5-49d3-ac5a-c7863ffe220b\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#st-george-illawarra-dragons\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">St George Illawarra Dragons<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">4:00pm, Sunday 26 July | St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">No Lean<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#gold-caost-titans\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Todd Smith<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Dragons are 3-9 with a 5-7 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Titans are 5-7 with a 5-7 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under is 8-4 in Titans games<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 55% in all Smith games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Todd Smith is typically an over referee but there is no angle strong enough to push a bet in this one.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>No Lean<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/st-george-illawarra-dragons-vs-gold-coast-titans\/67336ebd-43df-490d-b6fc-1de2bf1eda7d\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"67336ebd-43df-490d-b6fc-1de2bf1eda7d\" data-tr-event-id=\"67336ebd-43df-490d-b6fc-1de2bf1eda7d\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#manly-seaeagles\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Cronulla Sharks<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">6:05pm, Sunday 26 July | 4 Pines Park, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Manly +3.5 @ $1.90 &#038; Over 46.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260924a#cronulla-sharks\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Grant Atkins<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Manly are 12-9 with a 13-8 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Cronulla are 8-8 with a 7-9 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Home teams cover at 58%<\/li>\n<li>Home underdogs cover at 62%<\/li>\n<li>The over is 16-5 in Manly games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>Manly look an outstanding bet given Grant Atkins\u2019 home-team tendencies while Manly have an incredible over record on his whistle. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Manly +3.5 @ $1.90 &amp; Over 46.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/manly-sea-eagles-vs-cronulla-sharks\/13fa83e0-28a0-4c40-b66d-1dc5ff1dafc2\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"13fa83e0-28a0-4c40-b66d-1dc5ff1dafc2\" data-tr-event-id=\"13fa83e0-28a0-4c40-b66d-1dc5ff1dafc2\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"align wp-block-entain-sports-next-to-go\"><div data-league=\"NRL\" data-sport=\"rugby_league\" class=\"sport-next-to-go wp-block-entain-sport-next-to-go-block_aabccad50304bbc9b13aea8001204aee sport-data\"><\/div><\/section>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-entain-hero-news\">\n<section class=\"entain-block news-block hero-news-block \">\n    <div class=\"hero-articles-grid\"><div class=\"grid-item\">      <div class=\"hero-item grid-item-0\">\n        <article class=\"hero-news-card hoverable audio post-960 post type-post status-publish format-audio has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest post_format-post-format-audio\">\n  <a class=\"article-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/10\/podcast-the-advantage-line\/\" arial-label=\"Read article: Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026\" data-tr-action=\"view article\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\" hero news card\" data-tr-label=\"Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026\" >\n    <div class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__audio\">\n              <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/TCN027W_TAB_AL-POD_EP34_16x9_Full-Podcast-Thumbnail-876x493.jpg\" alt=\"Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n        <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n          <span class=\"post-category\" style=\"--post-thumb-term-bg:#3d3e48;--post-thumb-term-color:var(--brand-term-light);\">Rugby League<\/span>          <h2 class=\"hero-title\">Podcast: The Advantage Line | 2026<\/h2>          <div class=\"meta\">\n\t<time class=\"updated\" datetime=\"2026-10-07T03:51:19+00:00\">7 Oct<\/time><span class=\"author\"> &#149; TAB Staff<\/span>\n<\/div>        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <\/a>\n  <\/article>      <\/div><\/div><div class=\"grid-item\">      <div class=\"hero-item grid-item-1\">\n        <article class=\"hero-news-card hoverable  post-32877 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league\">\n  <a class=\"article-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/10\/from-the-couch-grand-final-edition\/\" arial-label=\"Read article: From The Couch: Grand Final Edition\" data-tr-action=\"view article\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\" hero news card\" data-tr-label=\"From The Couch: Grand Final Edition\" >\n    <div class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__\">\n              <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Roosters-NRL_1200x675-1-876x493.jpg\" alt=\"From The Couch: Grand Final Edition\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n        <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n          <span class=\"post-category\" style=\"--post-thumb-term-bg:#3d3e48;--post-thumb-term-color:var(--brand-term-light);\">Rugby League<\/span>          <h2 class=\"hero-title\">From The Couch: Grand Final Edition<\/h2>          <div class=\"meta\">\n\t<time class=\"updated\" datetime=\"2026-10-05T02:58:42+00:00\">5 Oct<\/time><span class=\"author\"> &#149; Nick Tedeschi<\/span>\n<\/div>        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <\/a>\n  <\/article>      <\/div>      <div class=\"hero-item grid-item-2\">\n        <article class=\"hero-news-card hoverable video post-32868 type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-rugby-league video_cat-special-interest\">\n  <a class=\"article-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/blake-ayshford-nrl-grand-finals-preview\/\" arial-label=\"Read article: Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview\" data-tr-action=\"view article\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\" hero news card\" data-tr-label=\"Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview\" >\n    <div class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__video\">\n              <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Artboard-1-876x493.jpg\" alt=\"Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview\"><\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n        <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n          <span class=\"post-category\" style=\"--post-thumb-term-bg:#3d3e48;--post-thumb-term-color:var(--brand-term-light);\">Special Interest<\/span>          <h2 class=\"hero-title\">Blake Ayshford | NRL Grand Finals Preview<\/h2>          <div class=\"meta\">\n\t<time class=\"updated\" datetime=\"2026-10-03T05:14:05+00:00\">3 Oct<\/time><span class=\"author\"> &#149; TAB Staff<\/span>\n<\/div>        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n      <\/a>\n  <\/article>      <\/div><\/div>  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-entain-vertical-videos\">\n  <section class=\"entain-block news-section-block vertical-videos-block scrollable-block\" data-section-heading=\"Latest Videos\">\n    <div class=\"entain-section-heading scrollable-block-header\">\n            <h2>Latest Videos<\/h2>\n            <div class=\"scroll-btns-wrapper\"> \n        <button type=\"button\" class=\"scroll-btn left\"><svg fill='currentColor' role='img' aria-label=\"Previous\"  version='1.1' xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' xmlns:xlink='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink' width='10' height='10'>\n        <use xlink:href='https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/global\/svg-misc-icon.svg?version=20260924a#arrow-left'><\/use>\n      <\/svg><span class=\"sr-only\">Scroll left<\/span><\/button>\n        <button type=\"button\" class=\"scroll-btn right\"><svg fill='currentColor' role='img' aria-label=\"Next\"  version='1.1' xmlns='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg' xmlns:xlink='http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink' width='10' height='10'>\n        <use xlink:href='https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/global\/svg-misc-icon.svg?version=20260924a#arrow-right'><\/use>\n      <\/svg><span class=\"sr-only\">Scroll right<\/span><\/button>\n      <\/div> \n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"vertical-videos-slide scroll-container\">\n      <div class=\"scrollable\">\n        <article class=\"vertical-video-card hoverable scroll-item post-32993 video type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-vertical-video\">\n  <div class=\"vertical-video-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/to-early-nrl-predictions-the-advantage-line-podcast\/\" aria-label=\"Watch video: To Early NRL Predictions | The Advantage Line Podcast\"\n    data-tr-action=\"watch video\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-label=\"To Early NRL Predictions | The Advantage Line Podcast\" data-tr-method=\"vertical video card\" >\n    <div tabindex=\"0\" class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__aspect-ratio-vertical thumbnail__video feature-video feature-video__lazyload\">\n      <div class=\"feature-video__lazyload-embed\">\n                  <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/TCN027W_TAB_AL-POD_EP34_9x16_Breakout-2-Thumbnail-657x1168.jpg\" alt=\"To Early NRL Predictions | The Advantage Line Podcast\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1234257144\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1234257144?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; 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fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe> -->\n            <\/div>\n          <\/template>\n              <\/div>\n      <!-- <span class=\"media-play-button\" ><\/span> -->\n    <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"vertical-video-card hoverable scroll-item post-32874 video type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-vertical-video\">\n  <div class=\"vertical-video-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/cam-smiths-grand-final-reaction-short\/\" aria-label=\"Watch video: Cam Smith's Grand Final Reaction | Short\"\n    data-tr-action=\"watch video\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-label=\"Cam Smith's Grand Final Reaction | Short\" data-tr-method=\"vertical video card\" >\n    <div tabindex=\"0\" class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__aspect-ratio-vertical thumbnail__video feature-video feature-video__lazyload\">\n      <div class=\"feature-video__lazyload-embed\">\n                  <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Screenshot-2026-10-05-at-2.20.53-PM-657x1165.png\" alt=\"Cam Smith's Grand Final Reaction | Short\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1232868598\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1232868598?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; 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Go Podcast\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1231526162\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1231526162?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe> -->\n            <\/div>\n          <\/template>\n              <\/div>\n      <!-- <span class=\"media-play-button\" ><\/span> -->\n    <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"vertical-video-card hoverable scroll-item post-32723 video type-video status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-rugby-league category-special-interest video_cat-vertical-video\">\n  <div class=\"vertical-video-wrapper track-me\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/video\/cam-smiths-2026-dally-m-team-of-the-year-short\/\" aria-label=\"Watch video: Cam Smith's 2026 Dally M Team Of The Year | Short\"\n    data-tr-action=\"watch video\" data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-label=\"Cam Smith's 2026 Dally M Team Of The Year | Short\" data-tr-method=\"vertical video card\" >\n    <div tabindex=\"0\" class=\"hoverable-thumb thumbnail__aspect-ratio thumbnail__aspect-ratio-vertical thumbnail__video feature-video feature-video__lazyload\">\n      <div class=\"feature-video__lazyload-embed\">\n                  <div class=\"thumbnail-wrapper\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/TAB-_-Cam-Smiths-2026-Dally-M-Team-Of-The-Year_465x822.jpg\" alt=\"Cam Smith's 2026 Dally M Team Of The Year | Short\" role=\"presentation\"><\/div>\n                          <template class=\"feature-video__lazyload-template\" data-vimeo-id=\"1230072295\" data-vimeo-defer>\n            <div class=\"feature-video__player-wrapper\">\n              <!-- <iframe class=\"vimeo-player\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1230072295?transparent=0&amp;muted=0&amp;badge=0&amp;autopause=0&amp;player_id=0&amp;app_id=58479&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0&amp;autoplay=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" style=\"position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;\"><\/iframe> -->\n            <\/div>\n          <\/template>\n              <\/div>\n      <!-- <span class=\"media-play-button\" ><\/span> -->\n    <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n<\/article>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n  <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 21. Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers 9:50pm, Thursday 23 July | CommBank Stadium, Sydney Penrith -15.5 @ $1.85 &#038; Under 44.5 @ $1.90 Gerard Sutton Parramatta are 5-11 with a 6-10 cover record Penrith are 19-7 with a 16-10 cover record Favourites of 4 or more cover at 55% The under is on a 10-2 run in Sutton games Penrith and Parramatta both operate at very different levels under Gerard Sutton while the under run is so&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":27646,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[575],"hub_post_cat":[3],"class_list":["post-30915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips","tag-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"24\/07\/2026","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 21 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. 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