{"id":29992,"date":"2026-06-26T06:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T18:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=29992"},"modified":"2026-06-26T09:12:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T21:12:58","slug":"nrl-refs-stats-that-matter-round-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/06\/nrl-refs-stats-that-matter-round-17\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 17"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 17.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#parramatta-eels\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Parramatta Eels<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">9:50pm Thursday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Souths -5.5 @ $1.85 &#038; Under 48.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#south-sydney-rabbitohs\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Gerard Sutton<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Eels are 5-10 with a 6-9 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Souths are 11-9 with a 13-7 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Road faves cover at 57%<\/li>\n<li>The under is 13-7 in Souths games<\/li>\n<li>The under is 7-1 in his last eight games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gerard Sutton is an elite front-running referee with road favourites having a particularly strong record. He has been in elite under form with Souths having a strong under record on his watch.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean: <\/strong>Souths -5.5 @ $1.85 &amp; Under 48.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/parramatta-eels-vs-south-sydney-rabbitohs\/04caa172-95a5-4854-8ac5-9d32753c1f26\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"04caa172-95a5-4854-8ac5-9d32753c1f26\" data-tr-event-id=\"04caa172-95a5-4854-8ac5-9d32753c1f26\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#gold-caost-titans\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">8:00pm Friday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Over 47.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#canterbury-bulldog\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Todd Smith<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Titans are 5-6 with a 5-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Bulldogs are 5-5 with a 4-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 55% in all Smith games<\/li>\n<li>Night games go over at 57%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Todd Smith is one of the leading over referees in the NRL and his games tend to go over at night making this a small play.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Over 47.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/gold-coast-titans-vs-canterbury-bulldogs\/36d26f96-13fc-48de-bb24-e22bf2d440ae\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"36d26f96-13fc-48de-bb24-e22bf2d440ae\" data-tr-event-id=\"36d26f96-13fc-48de-bb24-e22bf2d440ae\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#brisbane-broncos\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">10:00pm Friday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Over 49.5 @ $1.85<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#sydney-roosters\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Grant Atkins<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Broncos are 11-11 with a 14-8 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Roosters are 19-10 with a 16-13 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The over is 17-12 in Roosters games<\/li>\n<li>The over has hit in eight of the last 12 Atkins games<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 56% when a 6.5+ favourite<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 57% when a Top 8 team plays a team outside the Top 8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Grant Atkins has been the No.1 over referee of late and the over tends to hit when we have a big favourite and a strong team playing a weaker team.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Over 49.5 @ $1.85<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/brisbane-broncos-vs-sydney-roosters\/2043775d-6799-443a-95bd-8546fa491e42\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"2043775d-6799-443a-95bd-8546fa491e42\" data-tr-event-id=\"2043775d-6799-443a-95bd-8546fa491e42\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#dolphins\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Dolphins<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">5:00pm Saturday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#new-zealand-warriors\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Adam Gee<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Dolphins are 5-9 with an 8-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Warriors are 6-8 with an 8-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under is 10-4 when the Dolphins play<\/li>\n<li>The under is 11-3 in 2026<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 56% when there is a favourite of 4 or more<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The under has been a common occurrence under Adam Gee, particularly this year, while the under has been big in Dolphins games.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Under 51.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/dolphins-vs-new-zealand-warriors\/187848a9-a362-4d38-95fe-983974ba1408\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"187848a9-a362-4d38-95fe-983974ba1408\" data-tr-event-id=\"187848a9-a362-4d38-95fe-983974ba1408\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#north-qld-cowboys\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">North Queensland Cowboys<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">7:30pm Saturday | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Penrith -13.5 @ $1.90 &#038; Over 50.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#penrith-panthers\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Wyatt Raymond<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Cowboys are 2-3 with a 2-3 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Panthers are 3-1 with a 2-2 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Interstate favourites cover at 70%<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 63% when there is an interstate team playing<\/li>\n<li>The over hits at 70% when there is an interstate favourite<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Wyatt Raymond is too inexperienced to be uber-confident on any angles but interstate favourites have an excellent record as does the over when there is an interstate side playing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Penrith -13.5 @ $1.90 &amp; Over 50.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/north-queensland-cowboys-vs-penrith-panthers\/acc30e32-393e-44c5-b4e5-a0c52d3eed55\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"acc30e32-393e-44c5-b4e5-a0c52d3eed55\" data-tr-event-id=\"acc30e32-393e-44c5-b4e5-a0c52d3eed55\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#manly-seaeagles\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">9:35pm Saturday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney<\/div>\n                                              <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#melbourne-storm\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Ashley Klein<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Manly are 6-10 with a 7-9 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Melbourne are 16-10 with a 12-14 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Favourites have covered 11 of the last 12 Klein games<\/li>\n<li>Favourites of 4.5 or more cover 57%<\/li>\n<li>The over is 12-4 in Manly matches<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ashley Klein is a huge favourite official with the run of favourites on his watch covering almost perfect while favourites of more than a try has long been above average.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Manly -6.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/manly-sea-eagles-vs-melbourne-storm\/df7296d1-8dbf-4fb0-89bb-5ec5b3c902bc\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"df7296d1-8dbf-4fb0-89bb-5ec5b3c902bc\" data-tr-event-id=\"df7296d1-8dbf-4fb0-89bb-5ec5b3c902bc\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#canberra-raiders\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">St George Illawarra Dragons<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">4:00pm Sunday | GIO Stadium, Canberra<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 52.5 @ $1.90<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#st-george-illawarra-dragons\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Canberra are 0-2 with a 0-2 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The Dragons are 1-2 with a 2-1 cover record<\/li>\n<li>The under is 3-0 in Dragons games<\/li>\n<li>The under hits in 63% of all matches<\/li>\n<li>The under hits at 70% when a double digit favourite<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has officiated just 27 games so the volume has not been there but this is an excellent under spit with a big favourite and the Dragons playing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Under 52.5 @ $1.90<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/canberra-raiders-vs-st-george-illawarra-dragons\/930f5db8-d4de-4b1c-b239-cc439c77373f\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"930f5db8-d4de-4b1c-b239-cc439c77373f\" data-tr-event-id=\"930f5db8-d4de-4b1c-b239-cc439c77373f\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"entain-block teams-tip-block hoverable\">\n  <div class=\"teams-tip-header\">\n    <div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta\">\n      <!--div class=\"teams-tip-header-meta__inner\"-->\n        <div class=\"team-vs-team\" style=\"display:flex\">\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#newcastle-knights\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n          <div style=\"display:flex; flex-direction:row; flex-wrap:wrap; justify-content:center; align-items:center; text-align:center; column-gap:5px; font-weight: 700\">\n            <div class=\"team_1\" style=\"flex-direction:column;\">Newcastle Knights<\/div>\n            <div class=\"versus\" style=\"font-weight:normal;font-style:italic;\">vs<\/div>\n            <div class=\"team_2\">Wests Tigers<\/div>\n                        <div class=\"info\">6:05pm Sunday | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle<\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"bet-on\" style=\"margin-top:0\">Under 52.5 @ $1.75<\/div>\n                                  <\/div>\n          <span class=\"icon\"><svg width=\"32\" height=\"32\" fill=\"currentColor\" version=\"1.1\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\"><!----><use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/wp-content\/themes\/punters\/assets\/brand-icons\/tabnz\/svg-sports-nrl-icon.svg?v=20260515h#wests-tigers\"><\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n        <\/div>\n      <!--\/div -->\n    <\/div>\n  <\/div>\n      <div class='teams-tip-content'>\n      <p><strong>Peter Gough<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Newcastle are 10-8 with a 12-6 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Wests Tigers are 6-12 with a 9-9 cover record<\/li>\n<li>Favourites of 6.5 or more cover at 42%<\/li>\n<li>The under has hit in 11 straight Gough games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Favourites have a poor record under Peter Gough but so do the Tigers so the play in this one is riding the under train with 11 straight Peter Gough games going under the total.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ref Lean:<\/strong> Under 52.5 @ $1.75<\/p>\n        <div class=\"teams-tip-button\">\t\t\t\n          <a class=\"track-me btn-standard bet-now-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/sports\/rugby-league\/nrl\/newcastle-knights-vs-wests-tigers\/afa10b39-85cc-4288-b295-918dff5b44c8\" target=\"_blank\" \n          data-tr-event=\"blog\" data-tr-method=\"bet now button\" data-tr-action=\"open sport_event\" data-tr-label=\"afa10b39-85cc-4288-b295-918dff5b44c8\" data-tr-event-id=\"afa10b39-85cc-4288-b295-918dff5b44c8\"  \n          >Bet Now<\/a>\n        <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n  <\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. Nick Tedeschi breaks down the key officiating trends that matter for Round 17. Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs 9:50pm Thursday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney Souths -5.5 @ $1.85 &#038; Under 48.5 @ $1.90 Gerard Sutton The Eels are 5-10 with a 6-9 cover record Souths are 11-9 with a 13-7 cover record Road faves cover at 57% The under is 13-7 in Souths games The under is 7-1 in his last eight games Gerard Sutton is an elite front-running referee with road favourites having a particularly strong record.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":27646,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[],"hub_post_cat":[3],"class_list":["post-29992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"26\/06\/2026","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NRL Refs Stats That Matter | Round 17 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If you\u2019re not factoring in the referee, you\u2019re missing an edge. 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