With the World Cup just around the corner and the expanded format shaking things up, the path to the trophy matters more than ever and that\u2019s where the value is.<\/p>\n\n\n
With the tournament expanded to 48 teams and 32 of those teams progressing to the knockout stages, the bracket will play a significant part in the outcome. Spain cruised in qualification. They maintained five clean sheets in their first five games and scored 20 of their own. The 2-2 draw in the final group game was a dead rubber, so we won\u2019t give any weight to that.<\/p>\n
The big news for Spain is that if they win their group as expected, they will face a 2nd placed team in the Round of 32 and Round of 16. A potential quarter finals clash with Belgium will be a no-contest as they have won their last six competitive matches against them, including the last five at major tournaments. Their path will likely be made easier as Germany could meet France in the Round of 16. That means we will steer away from them with the main threats on the other half being Portugal, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and England.<\/p>\n
The English would likely need to beat 2-3 Central\/South American nations just to make the final so you can put a line through them. Brazil were horrific in qualifying winning only 8 of 18 games played and finishing fifth. Going back-to-back is a mountain too big to climb for Argentina with Portugal the most undervalued side heading into the tournament. Spain is the only bet worth having in this market with Spain to make the semi-finals ($2.25) also a play.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
The only reason for not backing them to win the tournament is price. No need to take $9 for them to lift the trophy when we can get $6 for them to make the final! The manager (Fernando Santos) got it wrong four years ago in Qatar when he benched Ronaldo for the Quarter Final against Morocco and Roberto Martinez will not be making the same mistake. One could argue that they have the deepest squad and they most certainly have excellent continuity. The trio of Vitinha, Joao Neves and Nuno Mendes were pivotal in PSG\u2019s successful defence of the Champions League. Then there is Bernardo Silva, Nunes and Reuben Dias who play alongside one another at Man City. Add in Bruno Fernandes who led the Premier League in assists and the man who cannot stop scoring – Cristiano Ronaldo.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
History tells us that host nations (co-hosts or singular) have an excellent strike-rate at qualifying for the knockout stages. Mexico have progressed to the Round of 16 in seven of their previous eight appearances in this tournament and that is without home ground advantage. Not only will they be playing at home, but they will also have the benefit of being acclimatised to playing at high altitude. Fancy them getting the better of England in a potential Round of 16 clash and the same applies if they lock horns with an underwhelming Brazil squad in the quarters. The $9 to make the semi-finals is excellent value while the $1.80 to reach the Round of 16 is one of the best bets of the tournament.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
England have not made the World Cup final since their only success back in 1966 and the last time it was held in this part of the world (Brazil 2014), they failed to get out of the group. Based on that we cannot go near Harry Kane and a tricky draw for the French means Mbappe is under the odds. The $21 on offer for Cristiano Ronaldo is madness. He had five goals in five games in qualifying and will be the primary penalty taker – critical for all selections in this market.<\/p>\n
This will come as no surprise with Erlind Haaland topping the goal scorers\u2019 chart in UEFA qualification. He netted 16 goals in eight qualifiers for Norway, and they could go further than many expect. If they finish second behind France in Group I, they could meet Ecuador in the round of 32. A win over Mexico or Brazil after that would not be a total shock. That would give him more than enough games to be a contender in this market. It is a similar story for Mexico\u2019s Raul Jimenez. He is the primary option up front for the co-hosts and with Mexico being one of the hosts, their group is void of a top-ranked nation. Expecting him to get three to four goals in the group stage alone.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
This market is tougher than it appears as several of the top nations have three or more players that could compete for this. What makes it even trickier is the unusual history associated with this award. Four years ago, Messi became the first player ever to win it twice and at the same time became the first player since Romario in 1994 to claim the award while playing for the team that won the tournament.<\/p>\n
In five of the last seven editions the Golden Ball has been handed to a player from the losing finalist. With that in mind, we will be backing one Portuguese player – Vitinha. He finished third in the Ballon d\u2019Or last year, was the driving force in PSG\u2019s Champions League success and won the Silver Ball at the Club World Cup.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
At the top of this list is Bruno Fernandes. Just broke the English Premier League record for most assists in a single season and his role for Portugal is identical to that at Man Utd. He takes all the corners\/set pieces that are not direct shots at goal and with Portugal set to be one of the major contenders, Bruno will be involved in everything.<\/p>\n
Yamal became an instant household name at the Euro\u2019s two years ago and has gone to another level since. Had 15 assists across La Liga and the Champions League in the season that just ended and his ability to attract multiple defenders will result in him looking for teammates that are unmarked. Lastly, we are adding Real Madrid\u2019s Arda Guler. Only two players in UEFA qualification contributed more assists and he plays an even more prominent role when playing for the Turkish national team. They find themselves in the most open group (Turkey, USA, Australia and Paraguay) which provided us with plenty of upside.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
You may think that 45+ penalties being awarded is unlikely but consider this – the tournament will have 104 matches in total compared to 64 in the past and we cannot forget the role of VAR. A total of 23 penalties were awarded in Qatar (0.36 per game) while it was slightly less than the 29 in Russia (0.45). If we replicate the Russia figures this time around and apply it to 104 total matches, there will be more than 47 penalties awarded.<\/p>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
With the World Cup just around the corner and the expanded format shaking things up, the path to the trophy matters more than ever and that\u2019s where the value is. Tournament Winner Spain ($5.50) With the tournament expanded to 48 teams and 32 of those teams progressing to the knockout stages, the bracket will play a significant part in the outcome. Spain cruised in qualification. They maintained five clean sheets in their first five games and scored 20 of their own. The 2-2 draw in the final group game was a dead rubber, so we won\u2019t give any weight to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":29433,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,133,749],"tags":[748],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-29413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-football","category-football-tips","category-football-world-cup","tag-football-world-cup"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"11\/06\/2026","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\n