{"id":28809,"date":"2026-05-23T21:00:37","date_gmt":"2026-05-23T09:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=28809"},"modified":"2026-05-23T21:40:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-23T09:40:42","slug":"nrl-tips-preview-round-12-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/05\/nrl-tips-preview-round-12-3\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 12"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Origin season is upon us and the first of the impacted rounds is here with just five games and all the Origin stars missing on a weekend that still holds plenty of importance to the teams still playing.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Dolphins<\/div>\n
9:50pm Thursday | GIO Stadium, Canberra<\/div>\n
Dolphins +3.5 ($1.90)\u00a0<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Dolphins are missing a host of players to Queensland\u00a0 led by Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow\u00a0while Herbie Farnworth was ruled out soon after teams were announced but no out will have as much significance in this one as the absence of Hudson Young for Canberra. The Raiders win at 57% and cover at 49% with Young but the win rate drops to 36% and the cover rate to 29% when he is absent. The Raiders play exceptionally poorly when their key energy man is out. Canberra have also struggled at home when a price, going 9-14 against the spread when $1.70 or larger. The Dolphins have covered 10 of 15 against teams outside the Top 8 while they have covered their last three interstate. The Dolphins look an excellent value bet.\u00a0\u00a0Jack Bostock has been a revelation when shifting to the centres after returning from an ACL injury, scoring four tries in three games. Trai Fuller has seven tries in 18 games at NRL level and is\u00a0a very good\u00a0tryscorer\u00a0in Queensland Cup. Kaeo Weekes has been scintillating this year with seven tries in 10 games.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Dolphins +3.5 ($1.90)<\/span>
\nNext: Dolphins Win ($2.25)<\/span>
\nTryscorer: Jack Bostock ($10.50 First, $2.10 Anytime)<\/span>
\n<\/span>SGM: Jack Bostock Try\/Trai Fuller Try\/Kaeo Weekes Try ($9.71)<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n
10:00pm Friday | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Melbourne +2.5 ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Melbourne have endured a star-crossed season and managed seven straight defeats before finishing in front the last two weeks and now face one of their stiffest tests of their season when playing without Harry Grant and Cameron Munster. The Storm have been remarkably strong though without two of their three stars, winning 12 of 13 when both Munster and Grant miss. The Storm have won 10 of the last 11 against the Bulldogs with nine of those by at least six points. They have covered eight of those clashes. This is an awful spot for a Bulldogs team also clearly unsettled off the field too. The Bulldogs have failed to cover seven straight when favoured and seven straight off a loss of 16-plus. They have covered just six of 19 at Accor. Melbourne are outstanding value. The last five between these two have failed to surpass 44 so the under is worth including in the SGM. Ativalu Lisati has looked very impressive on an edge and has two tries in his last five games. Sua Fa\u2019alogo now has 26 tries in 33 NRL games while he has not gone back-to-back games without scoring this season.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Melbourne +2.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Melbourne Win ($2.20)
\nTryscorer: Ativalu Lisati ($23 First, $4.00 Anytime)
\nSGM: Under 47.5\/Ativalu Lisati Try\/Sua Fa\u2019alogo Try ($22.23)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
St George Illawarra Dragons<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n
7:30pm Saturday | St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah<\/div>\n
St George Illawarra +13.5 ($1.98)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

We are nearly at the halfway mark of the season and St George Illawarra remain winless but they can take some heart from a strong showing against Penrith last week where they never looked in danger of not covering the mammoth 28.5-point start. While there is nothing settling about betting the Dragons to cover another big start, that has to be the bet against a Warriors team missing Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell to Origin duty and are down to their third-choice halfback. The key number against the Warriors here is how they perform as a big favourite: over the last four years the Warriors have been favoured by double digits 11 times and they have covered zero. The Dragons are 12-5 against the spread getting more than two converted tries and look a bet here even though they are not expected to score big with the under hitting in 14 of the last 18. The Dragons conceded five tries to left winger Greg Marzhew and a double to left winger Tom Jenkins so look for left winger Alofiana Khan-Pereira to get over. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is flying with 10 tries in his last six Warriors games. Christian Tuipulotu has 18 tries in 29 games for the Dragons and is their most likely tryscorer.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: St George Illawarra +13.5 ($1.98)
\nNext: St George Illawarra TT Under 18.5 ($1.90)
\nTryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($7.50 First, $1.52 Anytime)
\nSGM: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try\/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try\/Christian Tuipulotu ($4.53)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n
9:35pm Saturday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney<\/div>\n
Under 50.5 ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Manly are heavily favoured in this home clash with the Gold Coast and it is not overly surprising with the Sea Eagles a perfect 7-0 against the spread under interim coach Kieran Foran with six wins and a close loss to Penrith in that run. They are missing a lot of talent though with Haumole Olakau\u2019atu and Toltau Koula called up for Origin, Tom Trbojevic hurt and Lehi Hopoate suspended. So Manly are likely to rely on defence and that sets up well for the under. The Titans have scored more than 22 just once this season while the Sea Eagles have not conceded more than 18 under Foran. The under is 20-15 when Manly play a team outside the Top 8 while it is 19-12 when the Titans play interstate. The total looks far too big here. Jamal Fogarty has three tries in eight games this season and will run more with so many outside backs missing. Jason Saab loves playing the Titans with seven tries in nine games Reuben Garrick has eaten against the Titans with 12 tries in 10 matchups.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Under 50.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Gold Coast TT Under 18.5 ($1.83)
\nTryscorer: Jamal Fogarty ($23 First, $3.80 Anytime)
\nSGM: Jamal Fogarty Try\/Jason Saab Try\/Reuben Garrick Try ($9.71)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
North Queensland Cowboys<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n
6:05pm Sunday | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville<\/div>\n
Over 52.5 ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Day games have gone over the total at an incredible rate this year with the over hitting in 23 of the last 31 afternoon matches, making the over an auto-bet in this one even with some key attacking figures out. The Cowboys are missing Tom Dearden while the Bunnies are without Latrell Mitchell but points still seem very much on the cards. Both possess Top 8 attacks with Souths scoring 30-plus in six of their last seven while the Cowboys have scored 28-plus in seven of their last nine. The over hits at 63% when the Cowboys are off a win while it is 33-17 when the Cowboys play at night and 9-4 when they are off conceding 12 or fewer. The over is also 15-11 when Souths play interstate. This game has the hallmarks of a shootout. Tallis Duncan has been named in the centres this week and he loves playing out wide with five tries in four games. Helium Luki has scored five tries in 11 games this year and can tear up the Bunnies struggling left edge sans Latrell Mitchell. Euan Aitken has scored in three of his last four games.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Over 52.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Over 60.5 ($2.80)
\nTryscorer: Tallis Duncan ($15 First, $2.55 Anytime)
\nSGM: Tallis Duncan Try\/Heilum Luki Try\/Euan Aitken Try ($25.22)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Origin season is upon us and the first of the impacted rounds is here with just five games and all the Origin stars missing on a weekend that still holds plenty of importance to the teams still playing. Canberra Raiders vs Dolphins 9:50pm Thursday | GIO Stadium, Canberra Dolphins +3.5 ($1.90)\u00a0 The Dolphins are missing a host of players to Queensland\u00a0 led by Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow\u00a0while Herbie Farnworth was ruled out soon after teams were announced but no out will have as much significance in this one as the absence of Hudson Young for Canberra. The Raiders win at 57% and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":4445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[575],"hub_post_cat":[3],"class_list":["post-28809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips","tag-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"23\/05\/2026","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nNRL Tips & Preview | Round 12 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nick Tedeschi previews the latest round of the 2026 NRL Premiership\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/05\/nrl-tips-preview-round-12-3\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 12 - 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