{"id":27992,"date":"2026-04-19T08:00:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T20:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=27992"},"modified":"2026-04-19T08:11:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T20:11:20","slug":"nrl-tips-preview-round-7-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/04\/nrl-tips-preview-round-7-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 7"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Salvation is the story of the first game with the Cowboys and Sea Eagles both turning around early season troubles to hit a nice vein of form before a cracking Friday night affair where the Raiders host the out of form Storm is a salivating affair. Super Saturday is highlighted by the in-form Tigers hosting the defending premiers while Round 7 concludes with one of the great rivalry games when the Eels and Bulldogs square off.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
North Queensland Cowboys<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n
9:50pm Thursday | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

It is a touch surprising to see both the Cowboys and Sea Eagles flying high after such tough starts to their respective seasons. North Queensland dropped their opening two before a win over the Storm has catapulted them to four straight wins. It took sacking coach Anthony Seibold to set Manly straight, with big wins over the Dolphins and Dragons following his dismissal. While it is tough to find a winner in this one, confidence is high that there will be plenty of points with both sides in strong over spots and both teams filled with high-octane attacking weapons. The over is 25-15 when North Queensland are off a win while it is 10-4 when they are off scoring more than 35. Against teams outside the Top 8, the over is 23-14 when the Cowboys play. The over is 15-10 when Manly play a Top 4 opponent and 16-11 when they are off scoring 28 or more. The over is a high confidence play with laddering alternative overs recommended. Heilum Luki has scored in half his games this season and now has 18 tries in 63 games. Jaxon Purdue has scored 19 four-pointers in 24 games playing in the centres. Tom Trbojevic has a try in all five Manly games this year – including in every first half.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Over 54.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Over 62.5 ($2.80)
\nTryscorer: Helium Luki ($16 First, $2.80 Anytime)
\nSGM: Heilum Luki Try\/Jaxon Purdue Try\/Tom Trbojevic Try ($8.24)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n
8:00pm Friday | GIO Stadium, Canberra<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The problems at the Storm are very real and there will be no quick solution for Craig Bellamy. Shawn Blore provides some relief but there just isn\u2019t the depth of talent at the Storm and combined with the decline of Cameron Munster the Storm are going to battle for the remainder of the year. They have lost four straight with their only two wins coming against the bottom two teams on the table. They simply should not be favoured on the road against anyone – and that is highlighted even more with just four covers in their last 15 interstate games. The Storm have really been poor at night too, covering just 45% of games under lights. Canberra are a long way from flying too but they have tended to play Melbourne well with three wins in the last five with four covers in that run. They are 25-16 against the number when playing as an underdog while they have covered 16 of 24 off conceding 30-plus. The Raiders are tremendous value. The Storm are leaking 52% of tries down their left hand side and Raiders right centre Simi Sasagi is in rare form. Hudson Young is always over the odds with 47 tries in his last 100 games.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Canberra +1.5 ($1.96)
\nNext: Canberra 13+ ($4.50)
\nTryscorer: Simi Sasagi ($15 First, $2.75 Anytime)
\nSGM: Simi Sasagi Try\/Hudson Young Try ($7.43)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Dolphins<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n
10:00pm Friday | TIO Stadium, Darwin<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Dolphins have had two weeks to stew on their utterly horrid performance at home against Manly where they conceded 52 unanswered points before a few late consolation tries. In most situations, that would be a red-hot bounce back spot, particularly with a home game on the schedule. But with the Phins selling this game off to Darwin and the opponent Penrith off a loss, more pain seems to be heading the way of Kristian Woolf\u2019s team. There is no worse position to be in than copping the Panthers off a loss, particularly a big one. Penrith are 17-7 against the spread off a defeat while they have covered eight of nine off a double digit loss. Favouritism is no concern for the Panthers either, who have covered seven of nine when favoured by at least eight points. With an 8-1 cover record against teams outside the Top 8 and a 7-4 cover record interstate, confidence is high that Penrith should be able to do a job on the Dolphins. Blind betting locks this year has a POT of 52.6% this season and no team concedes a higher percentage of tries through the middle than the Dolphins, making Isaah Yeo a super bet. Nathan Cleary has 22 tries in his last 63 games and with the Panthers so heavily favoured he looks a value tryscoring option. Tom Jenkins is in ridiculous form with 14 tries through six games.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Penrith -15.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Dolphins Under 18.5 Points ($1.80)
\nTryscorer: Isaah Yeo ($41 First, $6 Anytime)
\nSGM: Isaah Yeo Try\/Nathan Cleary Try\/Tom Jenkins Try ($22.61)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n
5:00pm Saturday | Go Media Stadium, Auckland<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Warriors could not have been more impressive when absolutely whipping the Storm from pillar to post. Their enthusiasm and energy punched holes through the Melbourne outfit all night. The concern for the Warriors though is not what they can play like but how they typically play off such a performance and how they typically handle expectation. The Warriors cover at just 38% when favoured while they have been favoured by double digits 10 times the last four years and covered exactly zero of them. The Wahs have covered just eight of 23 off a double digit win. The Titans also happen to play them well. They have won six of eight and covered five of six. They have won the last three at Mt Smart. This is a great spot for them too with teams off scoring 50-plus in Rounds 5-8 a perfect 6-0 against the spread the last four seasons. Get right around the big plus with the Titans more than capable of winning this one. Arama Hau is an utter beast who has scored three tries in six games. Phillip Sami has three tries in his last three games and has crossed five times in nine games against the Warriors. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has 66 tries in 91 games for the Warriors.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Gold Coast +10.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Gold Coast Win ($3.50)
\nTryscorer: Arama Hau ($23 First, $4 Anytime)
\nSGM: Arama Hau Try\/Phillip Sami Try\/Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Try ($14.06)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
St George Illawarra Dragons<\/div>\n
7:30pm Saturday | Accor Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Dragons are getting more than a little frustrating for regular backers with five straight non-covers. They have blown leads. They have failed to score points. They have come oh so close to making the nut but fallen on the wrong side of the ledger every time. So tread very carefully when betting the Dragons this week even though the numbers and common sense suggest the +12.5 is a very good play. South Sydney are more than a little busted with Matt Dufty called in to play fullback for the injured Jye Gray and David Fifita out. Souths have dominated this matchup with 19 wins in the last 25 meetings but they are 14-20 against the spread when favoured and 5-10 against the spread off scoring 30 or more. The Dragons are 14-6 against the spread as a double digit underdog while they have covered 19 of 31 off a double digit loss. There is no trust here but if the Dragons have any gumption they will cover the huge start. Matt Dufty plays his first NRL game in four years but returns against his former side and comes off scoring 47 tries in 88 games with Warrington. Latrell Mitchell has 53 tries in 68 games playing centre. Tyrell Sloan has scored 18 tries in his last 22 games.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: St George Illawarra +12.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: First Half St George Illawarra +6.5 ($1.77)
\nTryscorer: Matt Dufty ($12 First, $2.25 Anytime)
\nSGM: Matt Dufty Try\/Latrell Mitchell Try\/Tyrell Sloan Try ($9.20)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Wests Tigers<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n
9:35pm Saturday | Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Broncos received some positive news with Adam Reynolds set to return and Cory Paix named on an extended bench but with Reece Walsh and Ben Hunt still out and now Patrick Carrigan suspended, the defending premiers are looking very thin. The Broncos record without Reece Walsh falls from 69% to 43% while their cover record drops from 62% to 33%. The Broncos win and cover rate drops 5 percentage points apiece with Carrigan sidelined. Brisbane have an outstanding record against the Tigers including eight straight wins at Campbelltown but this one is really the Wests Tigers\u2019 to lose in their current form. The Tigers have been terrific this season. They are 4-1 and second on the ladder and have not conceded more than 22 points all season. They have run 32 in three times – something they managed just twice all last season. Benji Marshall\u2019s team are 17-8 against the spread off conceding 20 or fewer. If they play like they have all season then they will be too strong for the defending premiers. Kai Pearce-Paul has three tries this season and is having a huge influence in a new system with the Tigers. Ezra Mam is back to his tryscoring form with scores in his last two. Jahream Bula has four tries in five games this year in what has been his most prolific tryscoring haul.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Wests Tigers -6.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Wests Tigers 13+ ($2.55)
\nTryscorer: Kai Pearce-Paul ($19 First, $3.10 Anytime)
\nSGM: Kai Pearce-Paul Try\/Ezra Mam Try\/Jahream Bula Try ($15.37)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Newcastle Knights<\/div>\n
4:00pm Sunday | Allianz Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Sydney Roosters have a dominant record against Newcastle with 18 wins in the last 21 clashes, covering seven of the last nine. Trent Robinson\u2019s team have really mixed form this year though and there is not a lot of desire to be laying double digits against a Knights team that really have dug in most of the season. The Chooks ran away from the Sharks late in Perth but they did trail 22-4 at one stage. The Roosters are 11-14 against the spread off a win of 13 or more. The Knights are a pure day team with a 28-14 cover record playing afternoon footy. They have also covered eight of 13 getting double digits. Dylan Brown also returns from injury, a major boon for Newcastle. The Knights are a red-hot chance here, particularly with Fletcher Sharpe playing his preferred position of fullback. Sharpe is an elite tryscorer with 24 tries in 30 NRL appearances. Dom Young is the best finisher in the NRL with 82 tries in 98 games. Robert Toia has 10 tries in 26 games but benefits from matching up with defensive liability Fletcher Hunt.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Newcastle +11.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Newcastle Win ($3.50)
\nTryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($12 First, $2.20 Anytime)
\nSGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try\/Dom Young Try\/Robert Toia Try ($10.34)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Parramatta Eels<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n
6:05pm Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Hopes of a positive year for Parramatta have gone to hell in a handbasket quickly with the Eels now second last on the ladder after conceding 48 or more three times in their opening seven games. They have been ravaged by injury with a host of starters out including a few season-enders. Times are tough for Jason Ryles\u2019 men. They have bounced back well after poor defensive showings all season though and they are simply getting too many points at home against a Canterbury team whose attack has struggled all season. The two times the Eels have conceded 48 they have won and lost in golden point the following week. Teams off conceding 50-plus in the opening eight rounds cover at 72%. Home underdogs of eight of more in the opening eight rounds cover at 63%. The Bulldogs are off a big win against the Panthers but have failed to cover their last four at CommBank and are 8-14 against the spread laying more than a converted try. The plus is a good play here. Expect a low scorer too with the under hitting in 17 of the last 20 Eels-Bulldogs clashes. Lachlan Galvin has scored in his last two against Parramatta. Charlie Guymer has started in the second row just seven times but scored in two of those.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best: Parramatta +13.5 ($1.90)
\nNext: Under 49.5 ($1.90)
\nTryscorer: Lachlan Galvin ($17 First, $3 Anytime)
\nSGM: Lachlan Galvin Try\/Charlie Guymer ($21.85)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Salvation is the story of the first game with the Cowboys and Sea Eagles both turning around early season troubles to hit a nice vein of form before a cracking Friday night affair where the Raiders host the out of form Storm is a salivating affair. Super Saturday is highlighted by the in-form Tigers hosting the defending premiers while Round 7 concludes with one of the great rivalry games when the Eels and Bulldogs square off. North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles 9:50pm Thursday | Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville It is a touch surprising to see both the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":340,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[575],"hub_post_cat":[3],"class_list":["post-27992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips","tag-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"19\/04\/2026","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nNRL Tips & Preview | Round 7 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nick Tedeschi previews the latest round of the 2026 NRL Premiership\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2026\/04\/nrl-tips-preview-round-7-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 7 - 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