{"id":23224,"date":"2025-10-25T22:28:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-25T09:28:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=23224"},"modified":"2025-10-25T22:40:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T09:40:26","slug":"ufc-321-preview-tips-sunday-26-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/10\/ufc-321-preview-tips-sunday-26-october\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 321 Preview & Tips | Sunday 26 October"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

October ends with a bang as the UFC lands in the Etihad Arena for a PPV showcase in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The long-awaited return of Tom Aspinall, now the full heavyweight champion, tops the bill as he welcomes Ciryl Gane to his fourth title fight. The remainder of the card is littered with veterans and contenders looking to capitalize big on the second half of their careers.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Tom Aspinall<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Ciryl Gane<\/div>\n
Heavyweight Title Bout<\/div>\n
Aspinall Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $1.30<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

After winning the interim title last year with a 60-second victory over Curtis Blaydes, the road to being the full champion has been a long and arduous one. With the exit of the infamously inactive Jon Jones, the heavyweight title picture has gotten much clearer and Aspinall now sits on the throne without debate.<\/p>\n

8-1 in the UFC with the lone defeat handed down by a knee injury, Aspinall has done well to keep himself in the public eye while fighting relatively infrequently. The highlights he has amassed help keep the spotlight on him, as his last three bouts have cumulatively lasted less than four minutes.<\/p>\n

A powerful finisher with a wealth of experience in both grappling and striking, Aspinall hasn\u2019t spent as much time in the cage as most in his position. As such, there are still a surprising number of things we don\u2019t fully know about Aspinall, especially as it relates to his gas tank down the stretch.<\/p>\n

Aspinall hasn\u2019t entered the second round since 2021, when Andrei Arlovski survived about six total minutes before tapping. This alone makes a long fight intriguing but history has shown he has a deep set of tools capable of ending things early.<\/p>\n

Standing across from the champion will be a French kickboxing specialist with championship experience. This weekend will be the fourth title fight of Gane\u2019s career and easily the most important after doing 1-2 in prior championship bouts.<\/p>\n

Gane is sure to be thankful for the opportunity to begin with after winning a controversial split decision over Alexander Volkov ten months ago. The decision proved contentious but Gane is ultimately the one moving forward while Volkov is fighting elsewhere on the card against Jailton Almeida.<\/p>\n

The Frenchman is a strong finisher in his own right and excels in measured, rangy fights. Thudding kicks to the legs and body are a common sight from Gane but he does deserve credit for being deceptively quick and mobile.<\/p>\n

Gane\u2019s defense isn\u2019t particularly nuanced and largely relies on footwork and spacing but the same could be argued for Aspinall. These two are likely to clash in some explosive ways but the Englishman has proven a more versatile and consistently dangerous threat.<\/p>\n

Gane\u2019s quick submission loss to Jon Jones in 2023 signaled he was still struggling to fend off strong grapplers\/wrestlers. But even bouts largely contested on the feet have failed to showcase Gane in a particularly stellar light.<\/p>\n

Ultimately it\u2019s hard to believe Gane will be able to string together enough offense to generate a win before falling victim to the finishing skills of Aspinall. Though Gane\u2019s best chance at victory lies in a pure striking contest, even there he is apt to struggle with the speed and timing of Aspinall. If this fight hits the canvas, it should only be a matter of time before a tap is elicited.<\/p>\n

Bet: Aspinall Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $1.30
\nSame Game Multi: Aspinall Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission + Aspinall 1+ Takedowns<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Virna Jandiroba<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Mackenzie Dern<\/div>\n
Women’s Strawweight Title Bout<\/div>\n
Jandiroba Wins By Decision @ $4.00<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

It may seem surprising that Mackenzie Dern is only 32-years-old but as she enters her 10th year as an MMA professional it would be fair to say Dern is fighting at her career-best. Though a mere 2-2 in her last four outings, Dern has demonstrated clear improvements and a dedication to becoming a better mixed martial artist.<\/p>\n

Famed for her grappling ability, Dern is many years removed from elite success on the competitive grappling circuit but hasn\u2019t missed a beat when it comes to threatening women in MMA. One of the deadliest submission artists in the division, skeptics need look no further than her buzzer-beating tap out of Amanda Ribas at the start of the year.<\/p>\n

Predictably, Dern is not one that wins many fights with her striking ability. In fact, even her wrestling has come under criticism for being chronically underwhelming. Since entering the UFC in 2018, Dern has only averaged slightly less than a single takedown landed per fifteen minutes.<\/p>\n

Naturally, this clashes with her greatest strengths. Dern has made strides to meld her skills together into a more cohesive package but even today, Dern still struggles when forced to elicit victory outside of tie-ups.<\/p>\n

Fortunately, Dern is facing a familiar foe this weekend that also struggles to get her striking going. Virna Jandiroba is 37-year-old but showing no signs of slowing down as she enters the biggest fight of her career.<\/p>\n

Riding a five-fight win streak, Jandiroba has done well to climb back up the ranks since her last defeat in 2021. Since, Jandiroba has stuck to her strengths and forced fights into her wheelhouse.<\/p>\n

A vaunted grappler with genuine submission skills, Jandiroba was a similarly priced underdog when she first faced Mackenzie Dern in 2020. Surprisingly, Dern tilted the scales with high volume offense on the feet as Jandiroba that clearly took the Brazilian by surprise.<\/p>\n

Today, both women have evolved in some ways but the greater trend of success has been elicited by a focus on grappling. Unlike their last bout, I expect Jandiroba to get her wrestling going and challenge Dern on the mat.<\/p>\n

Few have been willing to do it but if anyone can survive minutes at a time on the mat with Dern, it will be Jandiroba. Both can be aggressive on the mat but I actually anticipate a slower-paced fight from Jandiroba as she looks to consolidate control and let the clock wear down.<\/p>\n

With a blueprint to success on the feet and endless confidence on the ground, Dern is almost assured to come out aggressively. This should only bolster Jandiroba\u2019s wrestling attempts, leading to an awful lot of tense exchanges on the mat.<\/p>\n

With five rounds to work, it feels an inevitability that Dern will seriously threaten with some submissions. That said, this is the time for Jandiroba to showcase the fight IQ and gas tank she\u2019s been honing since their last meeting. A triumphant underdog story comes to life this weekend as Jandiroba takes a win over a former rival and picks up the vacant strawweight title in the process.<\/p>\n

Bet: Jandiroba Wins By Decision @ $4.00<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
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\n \n
\n <\/span>\n
\n
Umar Nurmagomedov<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Mario Bautista<\/div>\n
Bantamweight Bout<\/div>\n
Nurmagomedov Wins By Decision @ $1.70<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Recovery has been the main agenda for Umar Nurmagomedov since suffering the first loss of his career ten months ago. A broken hand in the second round made matters even worse as he ultimately came up short against reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili.<\/p>\n

The injury, which required surgery, is now fully recovered and Nurmagomedov finds himself installed as a heavy betting favorite in his return. Nurmagomedov has been relatively impressive since joining the organization but it was his decision win over Cory Sandhagen that put a spotlight on him.<\/p>\n

The cousin of Khabib and older brother of PFL competitor Usman, the wrestling skills of Umar Nurmagomedov are predictably some of his best. Though he deserves credit for being a shockingly agile, well-rounded fighter, he ultimately does his best work when dragging opponents to the mat.<\/p>\n

Nurmagomedov is a grappling specialist more than anything, though he can hold his own on the feet with quick, diverse strikes. He isn\u2019t afraid to spin, jump, or charge at opponents with a variety of offense and his southpaw stance only serves to make things trickier on the feet.<\/p>\n

He lacks power on the feet but the timing of his strikes is quite solid. It all serves to bolster his wrestling, which he will surely look to get going early and often against a sneaky veteran in Mario Bautista.<\/p>\n

Riding an eight-fight win streak is impressive in its own right but the last four wins have been the most notable for Bautista. The likes of Blackshear, Simon, Aldo, and Mix have all been outpointed by Bautista in the last two years.<\/p>\n

The 32-year-old hails from the United States and what he lacks in raw physicality he makes up for with fight IQ and cleanly refined skills. Both on the feet and on the mat, Bautista has displayed a deeper set of skills than he\u2019s typically given credit for.<\/p>\n

He isn\u2019t a devastating puncher on the feet but does well to land effective offense before gliding into his preferred range, whatever that may be. He finds success poking and moving from the outside but has also proven effective at close range, smothering opponents and accruing points the grinding way.<\/p>\n

Bautista has come under some criticism for underwhelming performances but it\u2019s worth considering the level of opposition he has been facing, and upsetting, en route to his big fight at UFC 321. Bautista is a cerebral fighter who has demonstrated the ability to set a solid game plan and stick to it, but this fight will likely come down to his takedown defense.<\/p>\n

In a kickboxing contest, Bautista might be able to hold his own but I doubt his ability to generate round-winning offense without succumbing to Nurmagomedov\u2019s wrestling. With only three rounds to work, I also anticipate a higher pace from Nurmagomedov without the worry of falling victim down the stretch. Tense minutes on the feet will be broken up by Nurmagomedov, who should be able to tilt the rounds in his favor with well-timed takedowns.<\/p>\n

Bet: Nurmagomedov Wins By Decision @ $1.70<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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\n \n
\n <\/span>\n
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Alexander Volkov<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Jailton Almeida<\/div>\n
Heavyweight Bout<\/div>\n
Almeida Head To Head @ $1.55<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

22-3 overall and an impressive 8-1 in the UFC, Jailton Almeida initially got his start in the light heavyweight division but has cemented himself as a contender at heavyweight since. Since getting bonked by Curtis Blaydes last year, Almeida quickly racked up two wins and as many finishes.<\/p>\n

Owning a staggering 95% finish rate, Almeida is something of a throwback fighter. Deeply uncomfortable in striking exchanges, Almeida is quick to dive for takedowns and will do so even from long ranges.<\/p>\n

He is surprisingly effective at driving through on takedowns from his knees but is clearly not a world class wrestler in the traditional sense. The Brazilian has solid control from the top position and has worked hard to refine his finishing skills from there.<\/p>\n

When he can\u2019t find a way to force a tap, Almeida has often been stuck holding a position for minutes at a time. Recent outings have showcased a bit more offense on the mat and it is certainly a step in the right direction for a relative one-trick pony.<\/p>\n

On the other end of the cage will be a towering threat in Alexander Volkov, who owns well-rounded skills but ultimately prefers to keep things on the feet. Volkov is fresh off a split decision loss to Ciryl Gane, who competes later in the night for the heavyweight title.<\/p>\n

Standing at around 6\u20197\u201d (201cm), Volkov is one of the largest active fighters in the division. A predictably lengthy threat, Volkov has become an expert at using his range, picking opponents apart, and piling up points.<\/p>\n

Recent years have seen him tighten up all aspects of his game. Takedowns were mixed in to great effect against Gane, while he managed distance and cleanly outstruck Sergei Pavlovich in the bout prior. At 36-years-old and 16 years into his MMA career, it isn\u2019t a stretch to say Volkov is now at his peak as a fighter.<\/p>\n

Historically, Volkov has struggled a bit with strong wrestlers and that stands to be a particular point of interest heading into UFC 321. Volkov may own one of the best back tattoos in the organization but spends a bit too much time lying on it.<\/p>\n

The lanky Volkov was even grounded twice in his outing against Gane, suggesting the defensive wrestling of the Russian has not been tuned up to an elite level yet. Despite a startling advantage on the feet, Volkov seems ill-equipped to handle the steadfast wrestling onslaught of Almeida.<\/p>\n

Fights like this are just the kind to breed anxiety for Almeida but he should be able to establish his wrestling and settle into a calmer position before the sand in the hourglass runs out. It is no question how this fight turns out if Volkov could stay upright for several minutes at a time, but he\u2019s seldom shown the ability to do that against persistent grapplers.<\/p>\n

Volkov is apt to find some fleeting success at long range but lacks the mobility to avoid Almeida entirely. The Brazilian will have to survive some hairy moments and submission attempts from Volkov but owns a skill set well-suited to victory over Volkov this weekend.<\/p>\n

Bet: Almeida Head To Head @ $1.55<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
\n
\n
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\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
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Aleksandar Rakic<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Azamat Murzakanov<\/div>\n
Light Heavyweight Bout<\/div>\n
Rakic Head To Head @ $1.90<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

Now 15-0 after rocketing off five straight wins in the UFC, there is good reason to keep an eye on someone like Azamat Murzakanov. A uniquely styled light heavyweight, Murzakanov was originally slated to make his UFC debut way back in 2017 but a failed drug test postponed it.<\/p>\n

Murzakanov eventually made his debut in 2022 and has been surging with four finishes out of five wins. It hasn\u2019t been entirely clear skies for Murzakanov but he has done well to enforce his will, grit out tough situations, and hold onto his unblemished record.<\/p>\n

With a relatively late start to martial arts, Murzakanov is not the most technically savvy fighter on the roster but makes up for it with solid timing and notable power. A bouncy southpaw who likes to charge in behind wide, heavy strikes, Murzakanov occasionally gets caught on the way in or out but has held up well to some thudding opposition.<\/p>\n

The minor betting favorite this weekend, Murzakanov owns particular force in his left hand but his set-ups for the shot leave something to be desired. He throws big, misses big, and fades down the stretch, but he never stops winging those heavy blows and trusting in his power to tip the scales.<\/p>\n

Thus far it has gone his way, but this weekend represents a clear step up towards the contenders of the division. Now entering the biggest and most challenging fight of his career (on paper, anyway), Murzakanov will need to be on-point if he hopes to get past Austrian veteran Aleksandar Rakic.<\/p>\n

The fact that Rakic is barely an underdog after losing his last three outings is indicative of the respect he has commanded from the division. While he has hasn\u2019t tasted victory since 2021, Rakic has stepped into the cage with Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Magomed Ankalaev and gave a solid account of himself.<\/p>\n

With another year layoff in the books heading into the weekend, Rakic\u2019s healthiness is a significant question mark for this bout. When he\u2019s firing on all cylinders, Rakic is a sharp striking technician with an emphasis on basics.<\/p>\n

Straight shots, clean low kicks, and careful movement are trademarks of Rakic\u2019s style. It\u2019s hard to dislike what he does inside the cage but it\u2019s worth pointing out that aggressive, durable fighters have found success by pushing Rakic onto the back foot and turning it into a scrap.<\/p>\n

Russian-born Murzakanov is not quite cut from the same cloth as men like Prochazka, though. Persistent aggression isn\u2019t a characteristic Murzakanov often showcases, typically preferring to dart in and out with his offense.<\/p>\n

He may find some success doing just that but Rakic is the technically savvier fighter and should be able to control the majority of minutes. Low kicks and mobility will be key to Rakic\u2019s success as he avoids the deadly left hand of Murzakanov early. Expect Rakic to pull away and exploit a decrease in Murzakanov\u2019s volume down the stretch to end his three-year drought.<\/p>\n

Bet: Rakic Head To Head @ $1.90<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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\n
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\n
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<\/use><\/svg><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n
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All Tips<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n
\n

Aspinall v Gane:<\/em> Aspinall Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $1.30
\nDern v Jandiroba:<\/em> Jandiroba Wins By Decision @ $4.00
\nNurmagomedov v Bautista:<\/em> Nurmagomedov Wins By Decision @ $1.70
\nAlmeida v Volkov:<\/em> Almeida Head To Head @ $1.55
\nMurzakanov v Rakic:<\/em> Rakic Head To Head @ $1.90
\nSalkilld v Haqparast:<\/em> Haqparast Head To Head @ $1.90
\nAliskerov v Park:<\/em> Park Head To Head @ $2.75
\nKlein v Rebecki:<\/em> Klein Head To Head @ $1.77
\nWalker v Sutherland:<\/em> Walker Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $1.64
\nDelgado v Wood:<\/em> Wood Wins By Decision @ $3.50
\nAbdelwahab v Barnett:<\/em> Barnett Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $5.40
\nMaksum v Raposo:<\/em> Raposo Wins By Decision @ $7.50
\nAmorim v Inoue:<\/em> Amorim Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $1.77<\/p>\n

\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div> \n <\/div> \n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

October ends with a bang as the UFC lands in the Etihad Arena for a PPV showcase in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The long-awaited return of Tom Aspinall, now the full heavyweight champion, tops the bill as he welcomes Ciryl Gane to his fourth title fight. The remainder of the card is littered with veterans and contenders looking to capitalize big on the second half of their careers. Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Heavyweight Title Bout Aspinall Wins By KO\/TKO or Submission @ $1.30 After winning the interim title last year with a 60-second victory over Curtis Blaydes, the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":28,"featured_media":338,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[578],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-23224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ufc","tag-ufc-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"25\/10\/2025","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nUFC 321 Preview & Tips | Sunday 26 October - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Visit the TAB NZ for our insider UFC 315 preview, MMA tips, latest UFC odds and best bets across the UFC 315 card!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/10\/ufc-321-preview-tips-sunday-26-october\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC 321 Preview & Tips | Sunday 26 October - 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