{"id":21501,"date":"2025-09-14T08:05:38","date_gmt":"2025-09-13T20:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=21501"},"modified":"2025-09-14T08:38:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T20:38:42","slug":"nrl-tips-preview-finals-week-1-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/09\/nrl-tips-preview-finals-week-1-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Tips & Preview | Finals Week 1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Evan Psarras previews Week 1 of the 2025 NRL Premiership<\/a><\/strong> Finals.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n
9:50pm Friday | AAMI Park, Melbourne<\/div>\n
Under 38.5 points ($1.87)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

This matchup was known leading into Round 27 and both coaches may live to regret playing their strongest lineups in a game that carried no weight. Jahrome Hughes sustained a fractured forearm that will see him likely miss the rest of the season while Papenhuyzen suffered a head knock in the final minute of the game that has seen him ruled out for this one. Similarly, Bronson Xerri is unavailable after being deemed a category one concussion while Montoya sustained an ankle injury. Both teams have been forced into reshuffles in the biggest game of the season.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

It has only been a matter of weeks since their most recent battle which came at AAMI Park. The Storm improved to 9-1 in the last 10 meetings with a 20-14 win, but the Bulldogs have been very competitive. They have covered the line in 8 of the last 10 as an away underdog in this series and part of that is turning the game into a defensive battle. The Under has held on in 7 of those games (70%) and 8 of the last 11 overall in this matchup. The absence of Ryan Papenhuyzen could be more significant than suggested as he has scored 7 tries in his last 4 appearances against the Bulldogs.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Storms\u2019 incredible streak has finally come to an end. They had won 20 in a row following a loss heading into their battle against the Broncos last week but were no match for the Queenslanders. The last time that the Storm lost three in a row was the tail end of the 2022 season – ironically their final two regular season games and week 1 of the finals. The Bulldogs have a 67% win rate following a loss in the last year and are a perfect 3-0 at the line as the underdog during that period. One of the priorities for the visitors will be shutting down Xavier Coates who has scored 6 tries in his last 3 games at AAMI Park.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

The last time that Papenhuyzen was unavailable, Cameron Munster lined up at fullback and was instrumental in the golden point win over the Panthers. Expecting him to play there again despite Nick Meaney being named to play there. That said, they will primarily be relying on their defence and the same can be said about the visitors. The big concern for the Bulldogs is yardage out of their own end. With a smaller\/more mobile pack than many of their counterparts, they rely very heavily on their back five to get their sets rolling. They will not be as efficient in that department which will see them lean on the long kicking of Burton to get them out of trouble. Jacob Kiraz has been named on the extended bench and could be a late inclusion. Like the Under here in what will be a very close game with golden point a real possibility.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Under 38.5 points ($1.87)
\nValue: Match To Go To Golden Point – YES ($17)
\nSame Game Multi: Tribet 1-12 Either Team by Less Than 12.5, Coates Anytime Try, Under 46.5 points ($3.92)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
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New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n
6:05pm Saturday | Go Media Stadium, Auckland<\/div>\n
Panthers -9.5 ($1.95)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

The Warriors have stumbled into the finals following losses in 5 of their last 7. That includes defeat in their last two against the Eels and Sea Eagles – two teams that will not be playing finals footy. They must now find a way to fend off the four-time defending champions who are coming off a big win over the Dragons. They rested their entire side a fortnight ago with the duo of To\u2019o and Liam Martin getting an additional week’s rest. It is a case of all hands on deck for the Panthers who will need to win four games in a row if they are to claim a 5th consecutive premiership. The Warriors welcome back Wayde Egan and Jackson Ford but lose Rocco Berry to a dislocated shoulder.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

As expected, the Panthers have dominated this matchup. They have won 9 of the last 10 meetings with the Warriors only win during that stretch coming in \u2018Magic Round\u2019 last year in a game that Nathan Cleary did not play in. The Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 battles as an away favourite and their success has been on the back of their defence. They have held the Warriors to 11.6ppg across the last 10 meetings which includes a 32-6 win in their qualifying final clash two years ago. Brian To\u2019o scored a try in that game and has a total of 7 tries in his last 6 appearances against the Warriors.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Panthers have won an incredible 12 consecutive finals matches! Even more incredible than that is the fact that they have conceded 12 or fewer points in 11 of those matches. The Under is 4-0 in their last 4 Week 1 finals games with an average of 31.75ppg in those matches. The Warriors have failed to cover the line in their last 4 home games (all as favourite) but have surprisingly posted outright wins in their last 3 as a home outsider. There has been an average of 38.0 total match points in games played at Go Media Stadium and a similar scenario will make it difficult to play catch-up. The Warriors have scored the opening try in only 3 of their last 10 matches.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Very concerned for the Warriors in this one. They have struggled in the last month against some of the worst teams in the NRL and the Panthers have spent the last few weeks preparing for this game. The Panthers at full strength is a scary proposition and their finals record speaks for itself. Expecting their defensive intensity to be off the charts and that will make it almost impossible for the Warriors to score points. The home side will not be scoring more than two tries.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Panthers -9.5 ($1.95)
\nValue: Warriors 10 Points or Less ($3.05)
\nSame Game Multi: Panthers WIN, To\u2019o Anytime Try, McLean Anytime Try ($4.54)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
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Cronulla Sharks<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n
9:50pm Saturday | Sharks Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Roosters -2.5 ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

A comfortable win over the Bulldogs was supposed to serve as the ideal preparation for an elimination battle against the Roosters until the Sharks found out that Nicho Hynes would be suspended. In a dramatic turn of events, the match review committee changed the grading of his charge which means he will be free to play. Trindall and Nikora make timely returns meaning there are no excuses for the home side. The Roosters improved to 5-1 in their last 6 with a crushing win over their traditional rivals and will roll out the same 17 that beat the Rabbitohs 36-6.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Roosters won 42-16 as huge underdogs\u202fwithout their Origin players in Round 12 but the Sharks did bounce back to win the second encounter of the season 31-18. They may have split the season series, but the Roosters have won 9 of the last 12 meetings. The Sharks have covered the line in 7 of the last 9 clashes as a home underdog with a 4-0 line record in the last 4 meetings at home. The Over has hit in each of the last three matches between them with 44+ total match points in 8 of the last 9 clashes. The Roosters have won all three prior finals clashes in this series including a 13-12 win at this ground in 2023 with Sam Walker kicking the winning field goal.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

Underperforming in the finals has been a huge issue for the Sharks in recent seasons. They have lost 8 of their last 9 finals matches which includes a run of 4 consecutive losses in Week 1 of the finals. The Sharks have been held to fewer than 20 points in 6 of their previous 9 finals matches and have conceded 26 or more in 6 of the last 8. The Over has hit in 10 of the Roosters last 13 games when coming off a win and there has been no stopping Mark Nawaqanitawase who has scored 10 tries in his last 5 games for the Roosters. His battle against Mulitalo could prove the difference as the Sharks flyer has crossed for 8 tries in his last 6.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

If there ever was a year that a team from the bottom half could go all the way, this is it. The Roosters and Panthers are the two most dangerous teams in the finals series, and nobody wants any piece of them. The Roosters attack has been sensational since the return of Sam Walker with their only defeat in their last six outings coming when he was unavailable. Having Hynes available is good news for the Sharks but he does not have the same kicking precision that Sam Walker does which gives the Roosters a clear edge in one of the most important matchups on the field (Nawaqanitawase v Mulitalo). I suspect this will be the highest scoring game of the week which will suit the Roosters.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Roosters -2.5 ($1.90)
\nValue: Roosters 31-40 Points ($4.00)
\nSame Game Multi: Roosters +6.5, Over 46.5 points, Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try ($2.88)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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\n
\n \n
\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n
\n
Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n
6:05pm Sunday | GIO Stadium, Canberra<\/div>\n
Over 44.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n

With the minor premiership sewn up, Ricky Stuart rested most of his key players in a dead rubber against the Dolphins. It means the result of that game is irrelevant but the same cannot be said about the Broncos who were relentless in a 30-14 win over the Storm. It was one of their most complete performances of the season with their goal line defence deserving specific mention. Shibasaki returns but the duo of Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam remain unavailable. The Raiders are at full strength.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Raiders opened as 12.5 point underdogs in the only regular season meeting of the year and came away with an impressive 32-22 win. The Green Machine improved to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two sides at GIO Stadium with high scoring matches a feature of this matchup. The Over has hit in 11 of the last 15 encounters including each of the last 6 hosted by the Raiders. The Broncos have covered the line in only 2 of their last 6 as an away underdog in this series. The home side will need a game plan to contain Reece Walsh as he has scored 3 tries in his last 3 appearances against the Raiders.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Broncos clinched a top four spot in the back of four consecutive wins to close out the regular season. They averaged an impressive 36ppg during that stretch led by Walsh who had 5 tries and 6 try assists across those games. Extending the streak will not be easy for the visitors as the Raiders have won their last 8 games as a home favourite – successfully covering the line in 7 of those games. The Broncos have covered the line in all four games during their current win streak but are 1-2 both straight up and at the line in their last three as a road outsider.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Discipline and application have been two of the Raiders biggest strengths this season. They rank in the top 5 in completion rate, possession and post contact metres which has consistently given them territorial advantage. The Broncos are one of the most dangerous teams with the ball but are prone to making errors inside their own half. The visitors’ scramble defence was very good last week against the Storm but it is worth noting that Melbourne are the only team they have faced in their last 8 games that qualified for the finals. In comparison, the Raiders defence out wide has been stellar throughout the season and have shown us that they can sustain the level of intensity required for 80+ minutes. The Broncos will be forced to chase the game which will see things open up in the second half.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Over 44.5 points ($1.90)
\nValue: Raiders To Win By 7-12 ($6.00)
\nSame Game Multi: Raiders +6.5, Strange Anytime Try, Karapani Anytime Try ($8.76)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evan Psarras previews Week 1 of the 2025 NRL Premiership Finals. Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs 9:50pm Friday | AAMI Park, Melbourne Under 38.5 points ($1.87) This matchup was known leading into Round 27 and both coaches may live to regret playing their strongest lineups in a game that carried no weight. Jahrome Hughes sustained a fractured forearm that will see him likely miss the rest of the season while Papenhuyzen suffered a head knock in the final minute of the game that has seen him ruled out for this one. Similarly, Bronson Xerri is unavailable after being deemed a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":4441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[575],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-21501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips","tag-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"14\/09\/2025","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nNRL Tips & Preview | Finals Week 1 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Visit the TAB NZ as Evan Psarras previews Round 25 of the 2025 NRL Premiership providing his expert NRL tips and best bets for the week!\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/09\/nrl-tips-preview-finals-week-1-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NRL Tips & Preview | Finals Week 1 - 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