{"id":20100,"date":"2025-08-02T12:50:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-02T00:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=20100"},"modified":"2025-08-02T22:12:25","modified_gmt":"2025-08-02T10:12:25","slug":"afl-tips-preview-round-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/08\/afl-tips-preview-round-21\/","title":{"rendered":"AFL Tips & Preview | Round 21"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Western Bulldogs<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
GWS Giants<\/div>\n
9:30pm, Thursday | Marvel Stadium, Melbourne<\/div>\n
Giants WIN\/Over 175.5 points ($5.25)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Bulldogs are coming off yet another huge win over a bottom half team, this time accounting for the Bombers by a 93-point margin. They face a very different proposition this week when they host a Giants side that has won 6 in a row. The Giants held the Swans to 8 points in the second half last week and have conceded fewer than 60 points in 3 of their last 4. We will likely witness a very different game here as there have been 190+ total match points in 6 of the Bulldogs last 7 games. The Over is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings with the Bulldogs holding a commanding 8-1 advantage in the previous 9 clashes in this series. The Bulldogs have made light work of the lesser teams this season but a 0-5 in their last 5 against teams currently in the top 8. They are 1-8 against current top 8 teams this season with their only win ironically coming against the Giants in Round 7.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Adelaide Crows<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Hawthorn<\/div>\n
9:40pm, Friday | Adelaide Oval, Adelaide<\/div>\n
Hawks WIN\/Under 165.5 points ($5.20)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Both teams have virtually pencilled in a spot in the finals but the focus over the last month will be securing a top 4 finish and a double chance. The Crows have scored 100+ points in 4 of their last 5 (all wins) but will have to overcome a poor 2-6 record in their last 8 games at home to the Hawks. The visitors have won the last three meetings overall and have posted a 3-1 line record in their last 4 clashes as the betting outsider. They will be hoping that it amounts to something as the Crows have won their last 7 home games and 13 of their last 14 overall when installed as the betting favourite. The Under has held on in 11 of the Crows last 14 games following a win and 10 of the Hawks 14 away games played in the last year.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Melbourne<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
West Coast Eagles<\/div>\n
3:20pm, Saturday | Marvel Stadium, Melbourne<\/div>\n
Demons 3rd Quarter -10.5, Over 171.5 points ($3.00)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Demons lost a second consecutive game despite having more scoring shots than their opposition but that is extremely unlikely to happen against an Eagles side that has lost its last 9 games. The Eagles have lost their last 5 by an average of 42.4 points and are 1-5 in their last 6 against the Demons. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings, and this will be only the second time they face off in Melbourne in more than a decade. The Demons have a 60% success rate at the line in the last year when coming off a loss and will be aided by the Eagles in covering here as the visitors are the worst second half team in the AFL by a significant margin. The Demons have scored 31% of their points in the 3rd quarter so look for them to pull clear after the main break.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Gold Coast Suns<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Richmond<\/div>\n
6:10pm, Saturday | People First Stadium, Gold Coast<\/div>\n
Tigers +50.5, 1st Half Under 82.5 points ($2.79)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Suns improved to 6-2 following a loss in the last year with a crushing 66-point win over archrivals Brisbane. Meanwhile, The Tigers were no match for the Pies and find themself in a difficult spot here. They have been victorious in only 4 of their last 18 following a loss with a 33% strike rate at the line in those games. The Suns have won and covered the line in the last as the home team in this series but have covered the line in only 2 of their last 7 attempts as a home favourite. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings and has held on in 72% of Tigers games on the back of a loss in the last year. Both teams score no more than 47% of their points in the first half which suggests a slow start to the contest.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Sydney Swans<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Essendon<\/div>\n
6:15pm, Saturday | SCG, Sydney<\/div>\n
Swans 1st quarter -11.5, Swans Over 102.5 points ($2.61)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Swans failed to convert a 28-point half time lead against the Giants in Round 20 and effectively bringing to end their attempt to snag a finals spot. The news is even worse for the Bombers as their 93-point loss to the Bulldogs marked an 8th straight defeat. The Bombers won a nail biter against the Swans earlier this season, but the Sydney side have won 6 of the last 7 meetings overall. The Swans have won 11 of the last 13 meetings as a home favourite and have won 79% of games in the last year as the betting elect. The Bombers have struggled in this spot with a 4-11 record both straight up and at the line in their last 15 games following a loss. The visitors are the worst first quarter team in the AFL and have led at the first break only four times this season. The Swans should dominate from the opening bounce.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Collingwood<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Brisbane Lions<\/div>\n
9:35pm, Saturday | MCG, Melbourne<\/div>\n
Lions +8.5, 3rd Quarter Over 41.5 points ($3.27)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Pies were in danger of being dethroned from top spot on the ladder last week but back with a comfortable win over the Tigers. In contrast, the Lions were dismantled by the Suns, and another loss here will likely see them drop out of the top 4. The Pies have won the last 4 meetings and covered the last three with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Under has held on in the last three clashes, in 67% of Pies games on the back of a win in the last year and in 5 of their last 6 games at the MCG. If things are to open up it will be in the 3rd term as it is the highest scoring quarter for both teams this season. Beware the Lions as they have won 8 in a row when facing teams above them on the ladder and have covered the line in their last 6 as an away underdog.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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St Kilda<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
North Melbourne<\/div>\n
3:40pm, Sunday | Marvel Stadium, Melbourne<\/div>\n
1st Quarter Kangaroos +5.5, Under 175.5 points ($3.10)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Accuracy in front of goal helped the Saints to a narrow win over the Demons ending what was a 6-game losing streak. The Kangaroos had no answers in a 101-point loss to the Cats and have also lost their last 5 matches in this series. The Saints have won 7 of their last 9 against the Kangaroos as a home favourite but the most noticeable stats in this matchup relate to the totals. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with an average of only 135.8 total match points across those games. The Saints have covered the line in only 3 of their last 9 following a win and it is also worth noting that they have trailed at quarter time in their last 7 games leading into this one.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Geelong Cats<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Port Adelaide<\/div>\n
5:15pm, Sunday | GMHBA Stadium, Geelong<\/div>\n
Cats Over 111.5 points ($1.85)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Consecutive losses have seen the Power fall out of finals contention while the Cats have solidified their place in the top 4 with back-to-back wins. Jeremy Cameron kicked 11 goals in the 101-point win over the Kangaroos and has had 4 or more goals in 8 of his last 10 appearances. That includes a 7-goal haul against the Power in Round 10 – the second time in a row that the Cats beat the Power by a margin of 70+ points. The Cats have won 10 of their last 11 at home to the Power but have covered the line in only 1 of the last 6 clashes as a home favourite. The Over has hit in the Cats last 3 games and 69% of games following a win in the last year. The Under is 6-1 in the Powers\u2019 last 7 interstate matches meaning they are unlikely to make a significant contribution to the total.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Fremantle<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Carlton<\/div>\n
7:10pm, Sunday | Optus Stadium, Perth<\/div>\n
Fremantle WIN\/Under 160.5 points ($2.20)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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Any joy from the win over the Demons in Round 19 was short-lived for the Blues as they paid the price for a very slow start against the Hawks. They now head west to take on one of the form sides in the AFL. The Dockers improved to 9-1 in their last 10 with a 49-point win over rivals West Coast and will not get a better chance to end a 3-game losing streak in this series. The Blues have covered the line in only 4 of their last 15 games following a loss with the Under holding on in 80% of those games. The Under has held on in 9 of the Blues last 11 away games and each of their last three battles with the Dockers. There has been an average of only 136.7 total match points across those three matches.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bulldogs are coming off yet another huge win over a bottom half team, this time accounting for the Bombers by a 93-point margin. They face a very different proposition this week when they host a Giants side that has won 6 in a row. The Giants held the Swans to 8 points in the second half last week and have conceded fewer than 60 points in 3 of their last 4. We will likely witness a very different game here as there have been 190+ total match points in 6 of the Bulldogs last 7 games. The Over is…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":4438,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[731,732],"tags":[715],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-20100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-afl","category-afl-tips","tag-afl-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":"","md_market_url":"","tip_date":"02\/08\/2025","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nAFL Tips & Preview | Round 21 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/08\/afl-tips-preview-round-21\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AFL Tips & Preview | Round 21 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Bulldogs are coming off yet another huge win over a bottom half team, this time accounting for the Bombers by a 93-point margin. They face a very different proposition this week when they host a Giants side that has won 6 in a row. The Giants held the Swans to 8 points in the second half last week and have conceded fewer than 60 points in 3 of their last 4. We will likely witness a very different game here as there have been 190+ total match points in 6 of the Bulldogs last 7 games. 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