{"id":15006,"date":"2025-03-23T07:00:53","date_gmt":"2025-03-22T18:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/?p=15006"},"modified":"2025-08-01T11:37:22","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T23:37:22","slug":"nrl-tips-preview-round-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/03\/nrl-tips-preview-round-3\/","title":{"rendered":"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 3"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Evan Psarras previews Round 3 of the 2025 NRL Premiership.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Melbourne Storm<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Penrith Panthers<\/div>\n
10:00pm, Thursday | AAMI Park, Melbourne<\/div>\n
Panthers +8.5 ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Storm extended their incredible Round 1 winning streak with a crushing 56-18 win over the Eels and spent last week watching from the sidelines courtesy of the bye. They would have watched the Panthers game closely, and like all NRL fans would have been in disbelief as the Premiers went down 38-32 to a short-handed Roosters outfit. The Premiers will be without Dylan Edwards for the Grand Final rematch with Daine Laurie to replace him.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

They were the two standout teams last season and went to battle on three occasions in 2024. The Storm won both regular season battles (8-0 and 24-22) but the Panthers won the match that mattered – holding off the Storm 14-6 in the Grand Final. The bookies have been on the mark in this matchup with the favourite winning 22 of the previous 29 meetings. The Storm have won 9 of the last 11 as a home favourite in this series and that is despite many of those being played at a neutral venue.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

The key to the extended success of both teams has been their ability to bounce back. The Panthers are 5-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 following a loss with the Under holding on in 67% of those games. The Panther\u2019s defence has been questionable in the opening fortnight and you have to go back to 2018 to find the last time they conceded more than 38 points in a game. Dating back to last season, the Storm have scored 30+ points in 6 of their last 7 games but this is only the second meeting between them at AAMI Park from 2019 onwards. The last 4 matches between them at this ground have produced an average of only 27.5 total match points per game with a high total of 38.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Not about to ignore the Storm\u2019s 21-2 record in their last 23 games at AAMI Park but this is an enormous start for the Panthers. From 2023 onwards the Panthers have an average losing margin of 6.0 points with only 1 of their last 8 defeats being by a 13+ margin. For all the talk about their attack, the Storm have averaged only 10.2ppg in their last 9 against the Panthers. The Premiers may not be the same team that won four titles, but they definitely know what is required to stifle the Storm attack.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Panthers +8.5 ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Under 45.5 points, Tri Bet Either Team By Under 12.5 points, Coates Anytime Tryscorer ($5.97)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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New Zealand Warriors<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Sydney Roosters<\/div>\n
8:00pm, Friday | Go Media Stadium, Auckland<\/div>\n
Over 49.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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It has been virtually an identical start to the season for these two sides with both being able to bounce back from heavy losses in their opening round matches to score huge upset wins in Round 2. The Roosters stole the show last week with a win over the Panthers with Trent Robinson welcoming the return of Radley, Leniu and Collins for the trip to New Zealand. The Warriors will line up with the same seventeen for a third consecutive game.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

If there is one team that the Warriors have not matched up well against in recent years it is the Roosters. The last 8 meetings have all been won by the tricolours, but it is the dominance in those victories which stands out. The Roosters have won those battles by an average of 18.25 points and all by 8 or more. The Warriors have been held to 12 or less in all but one of those encounters and that has contributed to a 5-0 Under record in the last 5 with the Warriors as the host.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

Consistency has been an issue for both teams in the last year with a winning average of 50% in the last year when coming off a win. The Warriors have been successful at the line in only 33% of home games in the last 12 months with the Overs hitting in 75% of those games. The Roosters have a solid 6-3 record in their last 9 as an away favourite with the Over hitting in 11 of the last 14 away games and their last 4 overall leading into this one. The duo of Sandon Smith and Dominic Young have crossed for a try at least once in each of the Roosters two games so far this season with the latter crossing for a double that last time he faced the Warriors.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Last week was an indication that the Roosters are not going to die wondering. They spread the ball from inside their own half regularly with the left-sided trio of Sandon Smith, Nawaqanitawase and Dom Young wreaking havoc. The Warriors may have gotten the better of the Sea Eagles last week, but I firmly believe there was an element of the visitors failing to convert early possession into points. Cannot see the Warriors defence being stern enough to hold out the size and speed of the Roosters out wide.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Over 49.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Roosters 13+, 51-60 Total Match Points, Dominic Young Anytime Tryscorer ($18.22)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Brisbane Broncos<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
North Queensland Cowboys<\/div>\n
10:00pm, Friday | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane<\/div>\n
Over 51.5 points ($1.85)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Broncos must have got caught up by the media hype following their huge win over the Roosters in Round 1 as they failed to take that form with them on the road to Canberra. Their forwards were outplayed, and Reece Walsh was not a factor. He is certain to be afforded more space here as the Cowboys defence has been non-existent. They have allowed 36+ points in their two games played which has forced the hand of Todd Payten. Robert Derby replaces the injured Braidon Burns, Clifford comes in for the inexperienced Thomas Duffy in the halves, and Nanai is back on the bench.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

A 4-0 record both straight up and at the line in the last 4 meetings highlights the Broncos recent dominance in this series. They have scored 26+ points in 5 consecutive games against the Cowboys and there has been no better bet than the Overs in this matchup. The Overs has hit in each of the last 7 meetings and 5 in a row hosted by the Broncos.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is the Broncos first game of the season at Suncorp Stadium and the aim will be to rectify what was a horrendous finish to 2024. They are 0-8 at the line in their last 8 home games and have been successful at covering the start in only 2 of their last 8 as a home favourite. The early signs are that their attack will be close to unstoppable this season – something that cannot be said about the Cowboys. The visitors’ defence has been so poor that teams have gone straight through them. Four Sea Eagles forwards (Sipley, Bullemor, Ben Trbojevic and Olakau\u2019atu) scored tries with the Sharks duo of Wilton and Nikora following suit last week. The Over has hit in 8 of the Broncos last 11 home games including each of the last five.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Cowboys could not be meeting the Broncos at a worse time. The Broncos let their guard down last week against the Raiders and back at home for the first time this season, will be out to prove a point. The Cowboys defence has been abysmal – especially on the edges. That makes Jordan Riki a good option for anytime tryscorer, particularly with Gosiewski likely to lose playing time to Piakura. The Overs is one of the best bets of the weekend with the Broncos to post 50+ another viable option.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.85)
\nValue: Broncos To Score 9+ Tries ($4.60)
\nSame Game Multi: Broncos minus, Riki Anytime Tryscorer, Arthurs Anytime Tryscorer ($6.65)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Cronulla Sharks<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
South Sydney Rabbitohs<\/div>\n
5:00pm, Saturday | Sharks Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Under 51.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The Rabbitohs are one of only five undefeated teams through two rounds of football following a come from behind win against the Dragons. They have won their two games by a combined total of only three points with the Wayne Bennett effect on full display. Humphreys is looking like a viable option at half back with Jack Wighton also returning for the visitors. The Sharks are rolling out the same 17 that ran over the Cowboys in a dominant 36-12 win in Townsville.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Sharks completed the season double over the Rabbitohs (34-22 and 20-6) and have now won the last three meetings. They have won the last 4 when installed as the home favourite in this series and have successfully covered the line in all but one of those games. A 7-2 record in the last 9 meetings at this ground is further suggestion that they will be hard to beat here. The Sharks right winger (Katoa) has scored a try in each of the last meetings which makes Stonestreet a threat here. Trindall has 3 in his last 3 against the Bunnies.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

Consistency has been a slight issue for the Sharks who are 9-7 following a win in the last year (50% success rate at the line in those games). A solid 8-4 record at home in that period stands out compared the Rabbitohs 2-6 record both straight up and at the line in their last 8 as an away outsider. The Under is 5-0 in the Rabbitohs last 5 away games and 2-0 in their two games so far this season – no surprise as the focus under Wayne Bennett has been competing sets. They rank second in that department (83%) and last in offloads which further clarifies their game plan.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is no doubt that the Sharks should be firm favourites, but this is a huge line – especially when you take into account the discipline of the Rabbitohs. They will complete their sets, make minimal errors and avoid giving away any territorial advantage through silly penalties. It will not be enough to win the game but will certainly allow them to keep it close with the Unders a fantastic bet for a third week in a row in games involving the Rabbitohs. Sonestreet is the pick of the tryscorers.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Under 51.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Rabbitohs +17.5, Stonestreet Anytime Tryscorer, 41-50 Total Match Points ($9.17)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Dolphins<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Wests Tigers<\/div>\n
7:30pm, Saturday | Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe<\/div>\n
Under 47.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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The opening half hour of the Tigers\/Eels clash last week was a tough watch to say the least but once the passes began to stick for the Tigers, the tries came thick and fast. Galvin was the architect while Turuva provided the polish with a hat-trick of tries. Heah Mason could be a late addition as Bula is carrying a foot injury in the only potential change. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will want to put cyclone Alfred behind them and celebrate a return home with their first win of the season. Kristian Woolf has named the same 17 but we could see some changes with Bostock, Finefeuiaki and Kenny Bromwich listed among the reserves.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Tigers won a nail-biter (24-23) in their first ever clash in 2023 but last year it was the Dolphins who took the points in both meetings. They were able to restrict the Tigers to 16 and 12 points respectively in those games and are aiming to maintain their perfect line record in this series. The Under is 3-0 in their previous 3 clashes with an average of 41.7 total match points across those games.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

As terrible as the Tigers have been in recent years, this is arguably a good time to get behind them. They have won only 4 of their last 19 (21%) following a loss but are 3-3 (50%) in their last 6 when coming off a win. The visitors opened favourites earlier in the week, but the market is not ready to trust them – not just yet. This movement could hold significant relevance as the Tigers have won only 1 of their last 11 as an away outsider with a miserable 2-9 line record in those games. The Dolphins have won 4 of their last 6 at Kayo Stadium and of great interest is the total match points market. The Under is 4-0 in the Dolphins last 4 games and 2-0 in the Tigers two games played this season.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Under Kristian Woolf, the Dolphins are yet to find a rhythm with their attack. Their kicking game and last tackle options in general have been conservative which has resulted in low scoring games. The Tigers may have put up 32 points against the Eels last week but neither side looked like scoring midway through the first half of that one. Terrell May has been a man mountain for the Tigers, but it will be polish at the end of sets which determines the winner. The Dolphins have looked very flat so far this season but there is no question that the cyclone has had a negative impact on the mental state of the players. Expecting a huge lift from them this week and am not prepared to back the Tigers on the road.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Tri-Bet Either Team by Under 6.5, 31-40 Total Match Points, Tabuai-Fidow Anytime Tryscorer ($19.74)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Gold Coast Titans<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Newcastle Knights<\/div>\n
9:35pm, Saturday | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast<\/div>\n
Over 50.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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A combination of stubborn defence and silky skills from Kalyn Ponga have helped the Knights to a 2-0 start. They have a great chance to maintain their perfect record as the Titans showed very little fight in a 40-24 loss to the Bulldogs. The Titans will be without prolific tryscorer Khan-Pereira after he sustained a calf injury while the visitors will have to overcome the absence of Leo Thompson and Pearce-Paul. Dylan Lucas may be a late withdrawal as he supposedly picked up an injury in training.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Knights have been victorious in 5 of the last 6 meetings with three of those wins coming by a margin of 20 or more points. The numbers can be misleading as only 1 of those games was played at Cbus Super Stadium with the Titans taking the points, In fact, the Titans have won the last 7 clashes at this ground and have incredibly tallied 30+ points in all 7 of those matches. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 hosted by the Titans with at least two players scoring 2+ tries in each of the last five clashes.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

A 5-11 record after a loss in the last year highlights the Titans lack of resilience. In comparison, the Knights have covered the line in 10 of their last 12 which suggests that they are difficult to stop when they get on a roll. They have won their last 3 as an away favourite and have successfully covered the start in 75% of matches as the betting elect in the last 12 months. The Under has held on comfortably in their first two games of the season and in 9 of their last 14 following a win. Ponga has scored at least once in his last 4 against the Titans while Fletcher Sharpe has scored in three consecutive away games.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

Des Hasler was supposed to solve the Titans defensive woes but that has not been the case. They have allowed 27.8ppg since the start of last season and falling behind 22-0 to the Bulldogs in the opening 20 minutes last week is unacceptable. Their defence cannot be trusted. They could score 30 points here and lose! We were on the Unders in the Knights game last week but on the road and against the Titans, the Overs is the play. Will also be taking a winger from each side to score 2+ tries.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Over 50.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Knights WIN, 60 Points or More, Schiller 2 or More Tries, Francis 2 or More Tries ($69.68)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Parramatta Eels<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Canterbury Bulldogs<\/div>\n
6:05pm, Sunday | CommBank Stadium, Sydney<\/div>\n
Under 46.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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We may only be two weeks into the season but the road ahead for the Eels looks very dark. They were outclassed by the Storm in Round 1 but there can be no excuses for their performance in a 32-6 loss to the Tigers last week. Volkman is the first casualty with Dean Hawkins taking the no.7 jersey, but it may not be the only change with the likes of Ado-Carr, Matterson and Joash Papalii on the extended bench. The Bulldogs are in pole position to make it 3-0 but will be without the duo of Burton and Kikau for at least a month.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is one of the most heated rivalries in the NRL and a match that their respective fans pencil in their calendar as soon as the draw is released. The Eels have won 8 of the last 10 meetings including five straight at home. They have posted a 4-1 line record in the last 5 as the home team but the most glaring statistic related to the total. The Under is 12-0 in the last 12 meetings hosted by the Eels which suggests points could be hard to come by. With respect to tries, Will Penisini has crossed at least once in 5 of the last 6 meetings while for the Bulldogs, Blake Wilson scored three tries across their two battles last season.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bulldogs are seeking a 5th straight win on the road and have momentum on their side. They have a 67% win rate following a win in the last year with the Under holding on in 12 of those 15 games. The Bulldogs have won 9 of their last 13 when installed as the betting favourite but it is worth noting that they have conceded 20+ points in 4 of their last 5 games dating back to last season. Yardage is an area where the visitors are likely to dominate. The Bulldogs rank 3rd in metres gained per game compared to 16th for the Eels. The Eels also rank 16th in missed tackles which is a massive concern this early in the season.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is hard to see where the points will come from for the Eels. They were abysmal in every department last week – missed 40+ tackles, made more than a dozen errors and conceded a handful of six agains. They relied almost exclusively on their outside backs for yardage with their back five accounting for 87 runs and 53% of their total run metres. Their one saving grace is the absence of Burton and Kikau – arguably the Bulldogs two biggest attacking threats. Can\u2019t see the hayward\/Sexton halves duo having a field day so am happy to be on the Unders.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Under 46.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-12, Wilson Anytime Tryscorer, Penisini Anytime Tryscorer ($15.68)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n\n\n
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Manly Sea Eagles<\/div>\n
vs<\/div>\n
Canberra Raiders<\/div>\n
8:15pm, Sunday | 4 Pines Park, Sydney<\/div>\n
Over 49.5 points ($1.90)<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/use><\/svg><\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
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New year, same old Sea Eagles. That is what their supporter base will be thinking after a poor performance against the Warriors. Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic failed to finish the game and despite being named, all reports suggest that Tommy Turbo will not be playing. The duo of Koula and Taukeiaho are back on deck, but mentality will be the key for the home team in this one and not personnel. The Raiders improved to 2-0 with an upset win over the Broncos but have been dealt a minor blow with Zac Hosking suffering a broken hand.<\/p>\n

Head To Head<\/strong><\/p>\n

The H2H across the last 10 meetings reads 7-3 in the Sea Eagles favour but there has been little in terms of home ground advantage with the away team winning 7 of the last 9 clashes. We must be careful taking this into account as several games have been played at neutral venues. On the northern beaches, the Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 clashes but the Green Machine have managed to come away with the points in their last two trips to 4 Pines Park. The trio of Weekes, Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic all scored at least once in each of the two meetings last season. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes between them with 44+ total match points in the last 4 encounters at this ground.<\/p>\n

Stats That Matter<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Raiders have started this season exactly how they ended last – winning. They are 5-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 5. Moreover, they have covered 11 of their last 17 as the betting underdog with the Under holding on in each of their last 5 away games. That trend is unlikely to continue here as the Over has hit in each of the Sea Eagles last 7 games and 66% of their home games in the last year. History suggests that the home side will bounce back as they have won 8 of their last 11 following a loss with an 82% success rate at the line in those games. Jason Saab has scored in 5 consecutive games at 4 Pines Park.<\/p>\n

Prediction<\/strong><\/p>\n

If Tom Trbojevic is a late withdrawal, the Raiders will be winning this game outright! They have played with an incredible energy through two games with Horsbrough leading the way through the middle. They look to have unearthed yet another tough English forward with Nicholson and Tom Starling has really come into his own following an increase in his minutes at hooker. My biggest concern for the Sea Eagles is a lack of toughness through the middle when opposing teams aim up to them. That is an area of strength for the Raiders and why they are a bet at the line in what promises to be a high scoring game.<\/p>\n

Tips<\/strong><\/p>\n

Best Bet: Over 49.5 points ($1.90)
\nSame Game Multi: Raiders +5.5, Saab Anytime Tryscorer, Both Teams To Score 20+ points ($5.08)<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\n Bet Now<\/a>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evan Psarras previews Round 3 of the 2025 NRL Premiership. Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers 10:00pm, Thursday | AAMI Park, Melbourne Panthers +8.5 ($1.90) The Storm extended their incredible Round 1 winning streak with a crushing 56-18 win over the Eels and spent last week watching from the sidelines courtesy of the bye. They would have watched the Panthers game closely, and like all NRL fans would have been in disbelief as the Premiers went down 38-32 to a short-handed Roosters outfit. The Premiers will be without Dylan Edwards for the Grand Final rematch with Daine Laurie to replace him.…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":4439,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,733],"tags":[176,136,575],"hub_post_cat":[],"class_list":["post-15006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rugby-league","category-rugby-league-tips","tag-new-zealand-warriors","tag-nrl","tag-rugby-league-tips"],"acf":{"md_tip_date":"","md_tip_date_end":null,"md_market_url":"","tip_date":"23\/03\/2025","event_country":"New Zealand"},"yoast_head":"\nNRL Tips & Preview | Round 3 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tab.co.nz\/punters\/2025\/03\/nrl-tips-preview-round-3\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_NZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NRL Tips & Preview | Round 3 - TAB NZ Punters Lounge\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Evan Psarras previews Round 3 of the 2025 NRL Premiership. Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers 10:00pm, Thursday | AAMI Park, Melbourne Panthers +8.5 ($1.90) The Storm extended their incredible Round 1 winning streak with a crushing 56-18 win over the Eels and spent last week watching from the sidelines courtesy of the bye. They would have watched the Panthers game closely, and like all NRL fans would have been in disbelief as the Premiers went down 38-32 to a short-handed Roosters outfit. 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